---
title: "Milspec case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Milspec ($0.95) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.34% from 99 items with odds, observed 115.97% over 417 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Milspec](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Milspec

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec?window=all)

Price · $0.95

Advertised RTP · 89.34% · EV $0.85 from 99 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 115.97% · 417 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 7 openings · below min

7 days · 118.11% ±13.56 384 openings

30 days · 115.97% ±13.02 417 openings

since tracking started · 115.97% ±13.02 417 openings

-0.5% 90.3% 181.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.68% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (102.95% – 128.99%, 417 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec?window=24h) | 7 | 81.05% ±99.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec?window=7d) | 384 | 118.11% ±13.6 | +4.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec) | 417 | 115.97% ±13.0 | +4.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/milspec?window=all) | 417 | 115.97% ±13.0 | +4.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 99 items · odds summed to 0.9899, rescaled · observed counts over 417 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $35.81 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $23.32 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $23.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.13 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $19.28 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $18.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $17.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $16.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $16.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $15.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $15.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $14.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $14.81 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $14.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $10.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $9.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $9.70 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $8.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $8.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $8.42 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $8.40 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $7.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $7.21 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,961 | $6.93 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 806 | $5.84 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $5.71 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 617 | $5.49 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $5.15 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-isaac-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $5.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $5.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 599 | $4.92 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 452 | $4.59 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 376 | $4.49 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 395 | $4.43 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 248 | $4.41 | 2.1% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.35× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 260 | $4.27 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $3.21 | 1.7% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $3.07 | 2.4% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.42× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $2.75 | 3.4% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $2.31 | 2.3% | 7 | 3.5 | 2.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) | 1 in 117 | $2.16 | 2.2% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.10 | 2.5% | 8 | 4.2 | 1.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $2.08 | 2.6% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $1.99 | 1.9% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $1.80 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $1.80 | 2.2% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $1.80 | 2.0% | 9 | 3.9 | 2.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $1.70 | 1.8% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $1.67 | 2.1% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.14× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $1.62 | 2.3% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $1.38 | 2.7% | 13 | 6.8 | 1.90× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $1.16 | 2.5% | 11 | 7.7 | 1.44× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $1.07 | 3.0% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.97 | 3.2% | 17 | 11.7 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.95 | 2.8% | 11 | 10.4 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Slipstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $0.89 | 1.9% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $0.85 | 1.8% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $0.84 | 1.5% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $0.80 | 1.6% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.79 | 1.2% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.78 | 1.1% | 16 | 5.0 | 3.20× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $0.77 | 1.2% | 12 | 5.7 | 2.10× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $0.77 | 1.3% | 14 | 5.7 | 2.44× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $0.69 | 1.1% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.64 | 1.1% | 9 | 5.8 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $0.54 | 1.0% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.46× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.54 | 1.1% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.38× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $0.54 | 1.1% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.51 | 1.3% | 13 | 9.3 | 1.40× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.51 | 1.3% | 15 | 8.9 | 1.68× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.46 | 1.1% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $0.45 | 1.0% | 13 | 7.9 | 1.64× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $0.45 | 1.0% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $0.43 | 0.8% | 10 | 6.9 | 1.45× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.42 | 0.8% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.71× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.71× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $0.40 | 0.7% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.37 | 0.8% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.36 | 0.7% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.34 | 0.8% | 12 | 7.8 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.33 | 0.9% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-atlas-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $0.29 | 0.7% | 11 | 7.9 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.27 | 0.7% | 5 | 8.9 | 0.56× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 0 | 9.8 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.18 | 0.5% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 9.0 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $0.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 8.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $0.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 8.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $0.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $0.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 7.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 8.3 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.4 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.9 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/milspec`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=milspec)

[StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-field-tested) [FiNiK](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/FiNiK) $0.95 $0.43 0.45x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) [Chili](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Chili) $0.95 $0.44 0.46x 2026-11-11 02:36 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) [danvx](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/danvx) $0.95 $1.07 1.13x 2026-11-11 00:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) [Віктор Янукович](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%92%D1%96%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%20%D0%AF%D0%BD%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87) $0.95 $1.44 1.52x 2026-11-10 23:00 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) [İnthemerin](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%C4%B0nthemerin) $0.95 $0.78 0.82x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) [NexXxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NexXxi) $0.95 $0.45 0.47x 2026-11-10 19:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) [Artist](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Artist) $0.95 $0.78 0.82x 2026-11-10 15:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-field-tested) [NexXxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NexXxi) $0.95 $1.73 1.82x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) [NexXxi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NexXxi) $0.95 $0.77 0.81x 2026-11-10 13:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-battle-scarred) [Tpsy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Tpsy) $0.95 $0.36 0.38x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $0.95 | 89.34% | 99 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $0.95 | 89.32% | 99 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $0.95 | 89.13% | 99 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.95 | 89.93% | 99 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.95 | 89.93% | 99 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.95 | 89.51% | 99 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.95 | 89.46% | 99 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $0.95 | 89.43% | 99 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $0.95 | 90.01% | 99 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.95 | 89.42% | 99 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $0.95 | 89.33% | 99 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $0.95 | 90.42% | 99 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $0.95 | 90.15% | 99 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $0.95 | 89.71% | 99 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $0.95 | 89.90% | 99 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $0.95 | 88.92% | 99 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $0.95 | 89.96% | 99 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $0.95 | 89.49% | 99 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $0.95 | 89.89% | 99 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $0.95 | 89.60% | 99 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.95 | 90.42% | 99 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.95 | 89.82% | 99 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.95 | 90.10% | 99 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.95 | 90.11% | 99 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.95 | 89.81% | 99 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $0.95 | 88.98% | 99 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $0.95 | 89.56% | 99 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.95 | 89.75% | 99 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.95 | 89.83% | 99 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $0.95 | 89.57% | 99 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 1.7% mil spec 14.1% milspec 41.8% Rare 6.0% #4b69ff 20.7% Mil Spec Grade 3.7% #4B69FF 0.0% Mil Spec 0.8% blue 10.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.34 on average: an expected loss of $10.66 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt