---
title: "MOUZ case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MOUZ ($0.59) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.06% from 28 items with odds, observed 150.90% over 1,625 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [MOUZ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · MOUZ

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case?window=all)

Price · $0.59

Advertised RTP · 92.06% · EV $0.54 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 150.90% · 1,625 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 161.03% ±13.15 235 openings

7 days · 151.62% ±5.09 1,490 openings

30 days · 150.90% ±4.87 1,625 openings

since tracking started · 150.90% ±4.87 1,625 openings

91.5% 133.3% 175.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (146.03% – 155.77%, 1,625 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case?window=24h) | 235 | 161.03% ±13.2 | +10.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case?window=7d) | 1,490 | 151.62% ±5.09 | +22.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case) | 1,625 | 150.90% ±4.87 | +23.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/mouz-case?window=all) | 1,625 | 150.90% ±4.87 | +23.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,625 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $5.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $5.11 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $5.05 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4.12 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $4.09 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-saiba-oni-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $3.98 | 0.1% | 6 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 980 | $3.75 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $3.23 | 3.7% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 926 | $2.96 | 0.6% | 22 | 1.8 | 12.54× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $2.59 | 4.4% | 44 | 14.8 | 2.97× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $2.25 | 6.4% | 51 | 25.2 | 2.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.65 | 6.5% | 56 | 35.0 | 1.60× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.51 | 7.8% | 84 | 45.7 | 1.84× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.40 | 9.3% | 90 | 58.5 | 1.54× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.11 | 9.3% | 115 | 74.0 | 1.55× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.82 | 5.6% | 127 | 60.3 | 2.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.78 | 6.7% | 156 | 75.7 | 2.06× |
| [Sticker \| Gonna Leave A Mark (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gonna-leave-a-mark-holo) | 1 in 17 | $0.60 | 6.7% | 185 | 98.3 | 1.88× |
| [Galil AR \| NV (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.52 | 6.3% | 240 | 107.1 | 2.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.38 | 4.7% | 190 | 108.5 | 1.75× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.31 | 4.5% | 249 | 127.2 | 1.96× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cackle charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cackle) | 1 in 12 | $0.27 | 4.0% | 0 | 131.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.23 | 3.8% | 0 | 144.6 | 0.00× |
| [M249 \| Bock Blocks (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-bock-blocks-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.16 | 2.4% | 0 | 130.7 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Mystic Conjunction (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 0 | 124.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-video-cam-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 0 | 125.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-nexus-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 0 | 123.5 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/mouz-case`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=mouz-case)

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) [void](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/void) $0.59 $0.31 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $0.79 1.34x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $1.11 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $2.24 3.80x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-well-worn) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $2.58 4.37x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $1.11 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $1.41 2.39x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-minimal-wear) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $0.38 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Sticker | Gonna Leave A Mark (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gonna-leave-a-mark-holo) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $0.60 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.59 $2.24 3.80x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $0.59 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.59 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.59 | 92.05% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.59 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.59 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $0.59 | 92.10% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $0.59 | 92.05% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $0.59 | 92.05% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $0.59 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $0.59 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.59 | 92.10% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $0.59 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $0.59 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $0.59 | 92.00% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed uncommon 0.0% pink 0.0% Restricted 0.0% #8847ff 6.1% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.1% Mythical 2.8% #4b69ff 23.8% Mil Spec Grade 0.9% restricted 4.4% Rare 12.0% Mil Spec 4.6% light blue 6.6% mil spec 6.7% milspec 7.8% blue 8.9% #5e98d9 7.7% industrial 7.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.06 on average: an expected loss of $7.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt