---
title: "Music Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Music Case ($7.51) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.94% from 47 items with odds, observed 89.61% over 125 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Music Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Music Case

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase?window=all)

Price · $7.51

Advertised RTP · 91.94% · EV $6.90 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.61% · 125 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 90.04% ±11.86 121 openings

30 days · 89.61% ±11.66 125 openings

since tracking started · 89.61% ±11.66 125 openings

74.5% 111.5% 148.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase?window=24h) | 13 | 111.46% ±36.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase?window=7d) | 121 | 90.04% ±11.9 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase) | 125 | 89.61% ±11.7 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/musiccase?window=all) | 125 | 89.61% ±11.7 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Dren, Gunman Taco Truck music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-gunman-taco-truck) | 1 in 15 | $21.13 | 20.7% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, Life's Not Out To Get You music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-lifes-not-out-to-get-you) | 1 in 12 | $15.04 | 18.2% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) | 1 in 11 | $6.40 | 8.5% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Robert Allaire, Insurgency music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-robert-allaire-insurgency) | 1 in 10 | $5.79 | 8.1% | 7 | 12.0 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, The Lowlife Pack music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-the-lowlife-pack) | 1 in 11 | $5.76 | 7.5% | 11 | 11.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmas music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-midnight-riders-all-i-want-for-christmas) | 1 in 10 | $5.66 | 8.0% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| AWOLNATION, I Am music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-awolnation-i-am) | 1 in 20 | $5.36 | 3.9% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.43× |
| [Music Kit \| Michael Bross, Invasion! music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-michael-bross-invasion) | 1 in 27 | $5.21 | 2.8% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Michael Bross, Invasion! music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-michael-bross-invasion) | 1 in 30 | $4.93 | 2.4% | 10 | 4.1 | 2.42× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Scarlxrd: King, Scar music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-scarlxrd-king-scar) | 1 in 25 | $4.62 | 2.6% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.43× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Crimson Assault music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-crimson-assault) | 1 in 30 | $4.52 | 2.2% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.69× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Mateo Messina, For No Mankind music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-mateo-messina-for-no-mankind) | 1 in 27 | $4.40 | 2.4% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Scarlxrd, CHAIN$AW.LXADXUT. music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-scarlxrd-chain-aw-lxadxut) | 1 in 21 | $4.20 | 3.0% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, The 8-Bit Kit music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-the-8-bit-kit) | 1 in 33 | $3.94 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) | 1 in 34 | $3.83 | 1.6% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.91× |
| [Music Kit \| Kelly Bailey, Hazardous Environments music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-kelly-bailey-hazardous-environments) | 1 in 27 | $3.66 | 1.9% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [Music Kit \| Neck Deep, The Lowlife Pack music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-neck-deep-the-lowlife-pack) | 1 in 47 | $3.44 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× |
| [Music Kit \| Scarlxrd: King, Scar music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-scarlxrd-king-scar) | 1 in 84 | $3.23 | 0.6% | 7 | 1.5 | 4.70× |
| [Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noon music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-feed-me-high-noon) | 1 in 49 | $3.21 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Total Domination music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-daniel-sadowski-total-domination) | 1 in 65 | $3.19 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.08× |
| [Music Kit \| AWOLNATION, I Am music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-awolnation-i-am) | 1 in 87 | $3.16 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Mord Fustang, Diamonds music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-mord-fustang-diamonds) | 1 in 78 | $3.14 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Music Kit \| Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmas music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-midnight-riders-all-i-want-for-christmas) | 1 in 8,333 | $3.06 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Various Artists, Hotline Miami music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-various-artists-hotline-miami) | 1 in 2,041 | $3.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Desert Fire music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-austin-wintory-desert-fire) | 1 in 6,250 | $2.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Mocha Petal music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-austin-wintory-mocha-petal) | 1 in 6,667 | $2.84 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Scarlxrd, CHAIN$AW.LXADXUT. music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-scarlxrd-chain-aw-lxadxut) | 1 in 5,556 | $2.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Matt Levine, Drifter music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-matt-levine-drifter) | 1 in 6,667 | $2.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Noisia, Sharpened music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-noisia-sharpened) | 1 in 7,143 | $2.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Ian Hultquist, Lion's Mouth music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-ian-hultquist-lions-mouth) | 1 in 9,091 | $2.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Troels Folmann, Uber Blasto Phone music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-troels-folmann-uber-blasto-phone) | 1 in 6,250 | $2.29 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragon music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-eye-of-the-dragon) | 1 in 6,667 | $2.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Ki:Theory, MOLOTOV music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-ki-theory-molotov) | 1 in 8,333 | $2.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Bachram music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-austin-wintory-bachram) | 1 in 10,000 | $2.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Crimson Assault music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-daniel-sadowski-crimson-assault) | 1 in 10,000 | $1.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Mord Fustang, Diamonds music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-mord-fustang-diamonds) | 1 in 10,000 | $1.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Roam, Backbone music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-roam-backbone) | 1 in 9,091 | $1.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Matt Levine, Drifter music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-matt-levine-drifter) | 1 in 6,250 | $1.67 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragon music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-daniel-sadowski-eye-of-the-dragon) | 1 in 10,000 | $1.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) | 1 in 5,263 | $1.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Sam Marshall, Bodacious music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-sam-marshall-bodacious) | 1 in 6,250 | $1.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Twin Atlantic, GLA music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-twin-atlantic-gla) | 1 in 5,882 | $0.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Beartooth, Aggressive music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-beartooth-aggressive) | 1 in 7,143 | $0.97 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Hundredth, FREE music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-hundredth-free) | 1 in 5,263 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Skog, III-Arena music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-skog-iii-arena) | 1 in 5,556 | $0.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) | 1 in 5,556 | $0.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Music Kit \| Tree Adams and Ben Bromfield, M.U.D.D. FORCE music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tree-adams-and-ben-bromfield-m-u-d-d-force) | 1 in 5,263 | $0.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/musiccase`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=musiccase)

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Scarlxrd: King, Scar music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-scarlxrd-king-scar) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $4.63 0.62x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Scarlxrd: King, Scar music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-scarlxrd-king-scar) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $4.63 0.62x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Neck Deep, The Lowlife Pack music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-the-lowlife-pack) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $5.76 0.77x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Neck Deep, The Lowlife Pack music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-neck-deep-the-lowlife-pack) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $5.76 0.77x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $6.33 0.84x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Gunman Taco Truck music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-gunman-taco-truck) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $20.97 2.79x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Crimson Assault music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-daniel-sadowski-crimson-assault) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $4.54 0.60x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Gunman Taco Truck music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dren-gunman-taco-truck) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $20.97 2.79x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Robert Allaire, Insurgency music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-robert-allaire-insurgency) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $5.77 0.77x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | Michael Bross, Invasion! music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-michael-bross-invasion) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $7.51 $4.95 0.66x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $7.51 | 91.94% | 47 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $7.51 | 91.99% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $7.51 | 91.97% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $7.51 | 91.95% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $7.51 | 91.93% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $7.51 | 91.90% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.51 | 91.93% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $7.51 | 91.90% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $7.51 | 91.91% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $7.51 | 92.00% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.51 | 91.93% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 7 6.5% high 32.8% #4B69FF 12.0% blue 34.0% High Grade 10.6% other 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.94 on average: an expected loss of $8.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt