---
title: "NAVI case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "NAVI ($0.85) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.02% from 28 items with odds, observed 125.51% over 2,713 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [NAVI](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · NAVI

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case?window=all)

Price · $0.85

Advertised RTP · 92.02% · EV $0.78 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 125.51% · 2,713 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 114.27% ±10.31 358 openings

7 days · 125.48% ±4.08 2,294 openings

30 days · 125.51% ±3.77 2,713 openings

since tracking started · 125.51% ±3.77 2,713 openings

91.5% 110.8% 130.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (121.74% – 129.28%, 2,713 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case?window=24h) | 358 | 114.27% ±10.3 | +4.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case?window=7d) | 2,294 | 125.48% ±4.08 | +16.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case) | 2,713 | 125.51% ±3.77 | +17.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/navi-case?window=all) | 2,713 | 125.51% ±3.77 | +17.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,713 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.99 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.46 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $5.31 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $5.15 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $4.75 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $4.69 | 0.1% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $4.53 | 0.1% | 10 | 0.5 | — |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 775 | $3.98 | 0.7% | 22 | 3.5 | 6.29× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 139 | $3.84 | 3.5% | 39 | 19.6 | 1.99× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $3.68 | 5.3% | 36 | 30.6 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $3.44 | 7.1% | 58 | 43.7 | 1.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $3.22 | 4.0% | 68 | 26.2 | 2.60× |
| [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-azure-glyph-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $2.49 | 4.8% | 269 | 41.1 | 6.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $2.18 | 7.4% | 87 | 72.1 | 1.21× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Moments charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-moments) | 1 in 34 | $1.98 | 7.4% | 122 | 79.4 | 1.54× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.44 | 6.9% | 166 | 102.3 | 1.62× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.21 | 7.1% | 173 | 124.7 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.18 | 6.9% | 147 | 124.8 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.99 | 7.4% | 218 | 159.3 | 1.37× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.61 | 5.1% | 238 | 176.5 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-ripple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.60 | 4.9% | 248 | 174.8 | 1.42× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.47 | 4.8% | 305 | 216.9 | 1.41× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zubastick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.45 | 5.0% | 226 | 234.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.31 | 2.6% | 273 | 178.3 | 1.53× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.25 | 2.7% | 0 | 228.3 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Baller charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-baller) | 1 in 12 | $0.19 | 2.0% | 0 | 219.6 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Smokey charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-smokey) | 1 in 11 | $0.18 | 2.1% | 0 | 247.5 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.16 | 1.6% | 0 | 206.8 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/navi-case`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=navi-case)

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.61 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zubastick (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zubastick-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.44 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.31 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.99 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $1.42 1.67x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Azure Glyph (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-azure-glyph-field-tested) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.64 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.99 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zubastick (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zubastick-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.44 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Souvenir SSG 08 | Azure Glyph (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-azure-glyph-field-tested) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.64 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-ripple-minimal-wear) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $0.85 $0.61 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $0.85 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $0.85 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $0.85 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.85 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.85 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.85 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $0.85 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $0.85 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.85 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $0.85 | 92.04% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.85 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $0.85 | 92.00% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 1.9% violet 8.1% Classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% restricted 5.4% mil spec 5.6% Industrial Grade 1.5% #8847ff 10.2% milspec 12.3% Rare 6.5% Mil Spec Grade 8.6% Uncommon 6.6% #4b69ff 25.6% blue 7.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.02 on average: an expected loss of $7.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt