---
title: "Neon Dragon case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Neon Dragon ($2.20) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 35 items with odds, observed 93.00% over 7,161 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Neon Dragon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Neon Dragon

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon?window=all)

Price · $2.20

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $2.02 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.00% · 7,161 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.29% ±5.09 1,443 openings

7 days · 92.94% ±2.54 5,886 openings

30 days · 93.00% ±2.30 7,161 openings

since tracking started · 93.00% ±2.30 7,161 openings

85.5% 91.3% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon?window=24h) | 1,443 | 91.29% ±5.09 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon?window=7d) | 5,886 | 92.94% ±2.54 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon) | 7,161 | 93.00% ±2.30 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/neon-dragon?window=all) | 7,161 | 93.00% ±2.30 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,161 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $21.18 | 0.2% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.10× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $15.32 | 0.8% | 20 | 7.4 | 2.69× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 483 | $13.23 | 1.4% | 28 | 14.8 | 1.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 244 | $11.81 | 2.4% | 31 | 29.3 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166 | $11.07 | 3.3% | 49 | 43.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 132 | $9.85 | 3.7% | 40 | 54.1 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $7.81 | 3.0% | 50 | 55.5 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) | 1 in 109 | $6.26 | 2.8% | 62 | 65.9 | 0.94× |
| [Music Kit \| Perfect World, Ay Hey music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-perfect-world-ay-hey) | 1 in 71 | $5.84 | 4.1% | 76 | 100.7 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $5.57 | 2.3% | 67 | 60.7 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $5.54 | 3.2% | 91 | 84.4 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $5.53 | 2.4% | 68 | 61.7 | 1.10× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $5.12 | 2.8% | 79 | 80.5 | 0.98× |
| [Enforcer \| Phoenix agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/enforcer-phoenix) | 1 in 75 | $5.09 | 3.3% | 99 | 95.0 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $4.53 | 3.6% | 108 | 116.5 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $3.84 | 3.7% | 148 | 138.4 | 1.07× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $3.83 | 4.0% | 134 | 150.4 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $3.29 | 4.0% | 187 | 175.5 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $3.18 | 4.2% | 184 | 193.0 | 0.95× |
| [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $2.76 | 3.4% | 241 | 180.0 | 1.34× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 30 | $2.52 | 4.1% | 215 | 236.6 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.10 | 3.7% | 248 | 258.1 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.08 | 4.0% | 277 | 279.0 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $2.03 | 3.8% | 285 | 274.5 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.85 | 3.9% | 316 | 303.4 | 1.04× |
| [Music Kit \| Juelz, Floorspace music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-juelz-floorspace) | 1 in 27 | $1.63 | 3.0% | 309 | 265.4 | 1.16× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.22 | 2.9% | 290 | 350.2 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $1.16 | 3.3% | 438 | 416.0 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Aces High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aces-high) | 1 in 14 | $0.76 | 2.7% | 489 | 507.4 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.67 | 2.4% | 461 | 521.0 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.63 | 1.9% | 455 | 433.7 | 1.05× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 17 | $0.63 | 1.8% | 494 | 421.9 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.51 | 1.8% | 360 | 500.3 | 0.72× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.43 | 1.0% | 388 | 340.7 | 1.14× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.42 | 1.0% | 370 | 344.6 | 1.07× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/neon-dragon`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=neon-dragon)

[Charm | POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $2.20 $0.63 0.29x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cassette-factory-new) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $2.20 $0.63 0.29x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-well-worn) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $2.20 $2.79 1.27x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-loudmouth-field-tested) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $2.20 $2.10 0.95x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $2.20 $2.50 1.14x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Sticker | Aces High sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aces-high) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $2.20 $0.76 0.35x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-battle-scarred) [SkSfps1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/SkSfps1) $2.20 $1.16 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

[MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-well-worn) [SkSfps1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/SkSfps1) $2.20 $2.79 1.27x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-minimal-wear) [SkSfps1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/SkSfps1) $2.20 $2.08 0.95x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-ziggy-battle-scarred) [SkSfps1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/SkSfps1) $2.20 $1.17 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.20 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.20 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.20 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.20 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.20 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.20 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.20 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.20 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.20 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 7 1.4% classified 1.9% restricted 8.8% pink 6.7% uncommon 8.0% other 4.8% blue 8.1% #8847ff 7.8% #d32ee6 2.1% Mil Spec Grade 2.5% Restricted 3.6% milspec 10.0% violet 9.7% Mythical 5.8% #4b69ff 7.1% Uncommon 7.0% gray 4.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt