---
title: "Nostalgia case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nostalgia ($1.60) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.39% from 35 items with odds, observed 87.04% over 696 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Nostalgia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Nostalgia

A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia?window=all)

Price · $1.60

Advertised RTP · 89.39% · EV $1.43 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.04% · 696 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.31% ±12.21 201 openings

7 days · 86.59% ±6.29 650 openings

30 days · 87.04% ±6.07 696 openings

since tracking started · 87.04% ±6.07 696 openings

77.5% 90.3% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia?window=24h) | 201 | 90.31% ±12.2 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia?window=7d) | 650 | 86.59% ±6.29 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia) | 696 | 87.04% ±6.07 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/nostalgia?window=all) | 696 | 87.04% ±6.07 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds summed to 0.9901, rescaled · observed counts over 696 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $23.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-factory-new) | 1 in 585 | $15.61 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $8.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $7.75 | 3.6% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 158 | $7.12 | 3.2% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $4.66 | 3.1% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $4.52 | 4.1% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $4.24 | 4.3% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $3.32 | 4.6% | 7 | 13.8 | 0.51× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $3.03 | 3.8% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $3.01 | 3.1% | 20 | 10.3 | 1.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $2.59 | 4.4% | 17 | 17.1 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2.45 | 3.4% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $2.05 | 3.5% | 23 | 17.0 | 1.36× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $1.71 | 3.2% | 17 | 18.9 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $1.70 | 3.0% | 12 | 17.7 | 0.68× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.63 | 3.2% | 14 | 19.7 | 0.71× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $1.60 | 2.8% | 11 | 17.3 | 0.63× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $1.46 | 1.4% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.27× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $1.44 | 1.7% | 17 | 11.6 | 1.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $1.42 | 2.0% | 17 | 14.3 | 1.19× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $1.40 | 2.0% | 12 | 14.3 | 0.84× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $1.38 | 2.3% | 18 | 16.7 | 1.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $1.30 | 2.1% | 15 | 16.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.22 | 2.2% | 24 | 17.6 | 1.36× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $1.10 | 2.5% | 21 | 22.7 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.10 | 2.7% | 27 | 24.6 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.02 | 3.1% | 31 | 30.2 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.90 | 2.9% | 35 | 32.3 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.78 | 2.6% | 39 | 33.4 | 1.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.70 | 3.1% | 40 | 44.4 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.68 | 3.6% | 61 | 52.4 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-elite-1-6-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.68 | 3.3% | 47 | 48.5 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.63 | 3.5% | 50 | 55.5 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.54 | 3.1% | 51 | 57.1 | 0.89× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/nostalgia`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=nostalgia)

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) [Senas\_Boksioras](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Senas_Boksioras) $1.60 $0.78 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) [FiNiK](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/FiNiK) $1.60 $1.09 0.68x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-minimal-wear) [Stakh](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stakh) $1.60 $1.01 0.63x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-factory-new) [Stakh](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stakh) $1.60 $2.60 1.63x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-factory-new) [Stakh](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stakh) $1.60 $2.60 1.63x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) [Stakh](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stakh) $1.60 $0.68 0.43x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) [Stakh](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stakh) $1.60 $0.90 0.56x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC

[SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) [Stakh](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stakh) $1.60 $0.68 0.43x 2026-11-11 05:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $1.60 $0.90 0.56x 2026-11-11 04:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-elite-1-6-minimal-wear) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $1.60 $0.68 0.43x 2026-11-11 04:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.60 | 89.39% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.60 | 88.37% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.60 | 89.27% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.60 | 88.89% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.60 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.60 | 89.32% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.60 | 86.77% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.60 | 86.89% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.60 | 90.06% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.60 | 88.27% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.60 | 88.91% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.60 | 88.27% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.60 | 88.16% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.60 | 85.14% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.60 | 87.92% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.60 | 89.68% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.60 | 88.26% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.60 | 88.47% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.60 | 87.20% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.60 | 87.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.60 | 88.46% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.60 | 87.08% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.60 | 89.08% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.60 | 84.80% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.60 | 89.27% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.60 | 88.21% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.60 | 88.71% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.60 | 90.69% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.60 | 87.40% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1.60 | 89.18% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.0% #8847ff 6.4% restricted 15.2% Mythical 7.0% classified 3.0% milspec 27.4% violet 13.0% Restricted 2.4% Mil Spec Grade 2.7% mil spec 7.1% Mil Spec 6.9% Rare 7.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.39 on average: an expected loss of $10.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt