---
title: "Palash case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Palash ($130.14) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.04% over 273 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Palash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Palash

A case on GGDROP (partners), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash?window=all)

Price · $130.14

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $119.73 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.04% · 273 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.95% ±12.06 211 openings

7 days · 94.00% ±11.19 246 openings

30 days · 92.04% ±10.64 273 openings

since tracking started · 92.04% ±10.64 273 openings

80.5% 94.5% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash?window=24h) | 211 | 95.95% ±12.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash?window=7d) | 246 | 94.00% ±11.2 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash) | 273 | 92.04% ±10.6 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/palash?window=all) | 273 | 92.04% ±10.6 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 273 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $630 | 4.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $619 | 4.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $515 | 3.6% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $416 | 3.7% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $397 | 2.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $368 | 3.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $366 | 3.6% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $309 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $297 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.31× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $291 | 2.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $272 | 3.6% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $258 | 3.1% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $225 | 3.3% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.26× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $211 | 3.3% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $197 | 3.4% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.24× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $163 | 3.3% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $141 | 2.8% | 10 | 6.5 | 1.53× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $133 | 3.0% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $132 | 3.1% | 11 | 7.7 | 1.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $129 | 2.5% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $126 | 1.9% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $115 | 1.7% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.71× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $103 | 1.5% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $101 | 1.9% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $99.38 | 2.2% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $97.85 | 2.1% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $87.71 | 1.4% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.75× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $83.51 | 1.7% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $82.77 | 1.9% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $58.59 | 1.9% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $54.85 | 1.6% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $51.75 | 1.7% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $50.38 | 2.0% | 19 | 13.1 | 1.45× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $48.97 | 1.0% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $45.48 | 1.0% | 11 | 6.9 | 1.60× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $43.64 | 0.9% | 10 | 6.4 | 1.55× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $41.01 | 1.1% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $40.31 | 1.2% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.71× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $38.92 | 1.1% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $36.16 | 1.4% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $35.89 | 1.3% | 12 | 12.1 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $29.48 | 1.4% | 12 | 15.7 | 0.77× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/palash`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $635 4.88x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $635 4.88x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $635 4.88x 2026-11-11 05:49 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $620 4.76x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=palash)

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) [L4he$T](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/L4he%24T) $130 $43.37 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $55.08 0.42x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $50.56 0.39x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $44.88 0.34x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $101 0.77x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $104 0.80x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $142 1.09x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $98.99 0.76x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[G3SG1 | Chronos (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-well-worn) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $368 2.83x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Miler](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Miler) $130 $50.56 0.39x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $130 | 91.92% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $130 | 91.98% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $130 | 91.96% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $130 | 91.92% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $130 | 91.92% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $130 | 91.91% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $130 | 91.92% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $130 | 91.94% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $130 | 91.94% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $130 | 91.96% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $130 | 91.95% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $130 | 92.00% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 7.0% covert 44.8% restricted 0.9% Restricted 1.2% Ancient 1.2% Covert 6.9% classified 23.0% #d32ee6 1.8% #8847ff 1.7% red 2.3% violet 2.4% pink 2.4% Classified 4.5% best hit $635 (4.88x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt