---
title: "Operation Phoenix Weapon Case on GGDROP: odds & RTP"
description: "Operation Phoenix Weapon Case ($2.40) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 96 items with odds, observed 170.32% over 135 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Operation Phoenix Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix?window=all)

Price · $2.40

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $2.21 from 96 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 170.32% · 135 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 10 openings · below min

7 days · 177.17% ±33.21 127 openings

30 days · 170.32% ±32.18 135 openings

since tracking started · 170.32% ±32.18 135 openings

91.5% 386.0% 680.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (138.14% – 202.49%, 135 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix?window=24h) | 10 | 562.04% ±117.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix?window=7d) | 127 | 177.17% ±33.2 | +5.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix) | 135 | 170.32% ±32.2 | +4.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/phoenix?window=all) | 135 | 170.32% ±32.2 | +4.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 96 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $130 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $125 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $101 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $99.97 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $89.79 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $89.18 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $86.64 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $86.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $83.68 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $80.57 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $71.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $59.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $41.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $30.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $29.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $27.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $27.13 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $26.86 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $20.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $20.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $18.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $17.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $16.88 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $16.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 1,961 | $16.39 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $15.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $14.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $12.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $12.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 455 | $12.50 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 463 | $12.32 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $11.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $11.79 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 524 | $11.02 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 394 | $10.78 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 243 | $10.20 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $10.06 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $7.10 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $6.87 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $6.61 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $6.37 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $5.96 | 1.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $5.54 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $5.25 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $5.12 | 1.9% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-sergeant-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $4.57 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $4.40 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $4.35 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $4.23 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $4.19 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $4.18 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-sergeant-battle-scarred) | 1 in 107 | $3.50 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $3.29 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $3.22 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $3.07 | 2.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $3.03 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.41× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2.96 | 1.3% | 7 | 1.4 | 5.17× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2.93 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $2.83 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $2.81 | 1.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $2.75 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $2.71 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $2.67 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $2.67 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $2.54 | 2.8% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $2.20 | 2.3% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $1.59 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.45 | 2.9% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.70× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $1.31 | 3.1% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.71× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $1.11 | 2.7% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.07 | 1.7% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.52× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-sandstorm-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $1.06 | 1.5% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.92 | 1.2% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $0.85 | 0.8% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.78 | 0.8% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.76 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $0.70 | 0.7% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $0.68 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $0.63 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $0.62 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $0.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $0.59 | 0.3% | 7 | 1.4 | 4.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-sandstorm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $0.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.24× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $0.54 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $0.51 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $0.50 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $0.50 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $0.49 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.47 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $0.47 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $0.47 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.17× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.42 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/phoenix`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) [Worek](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Worek) $2.40 $126 52.30x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=phoenix)

[Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-field-tested) [ДРЕЛЬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%9B%D0%AC) $2.40 $0.45 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[UMP-45 | Corporal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-battle-scarred) [hels1s](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/hels1s) $2.40 $0.41 0.17x 2026-11-11 07:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) [-TRAUMS-](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/-TRAUMS-) $2.40 $1.07 0.45x 2026-11-11 05:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-well-worn) [-TRAUMS-](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/-TRAUMS-) $2.40 $0.70 0.29x 2026-11-11 05:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-factory-new) [Worek](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Worek) $2.40 $126 52.30x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-battle-scarred) [Worek](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Worek) $2.40 $2.56 1.07x 2026-11-10 23:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-terrain-factory-new) [Kapitein](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kapitein) $2.40 $1.57 0.65x 2026-11-10 23:08 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-battle-scarred) [Dawg](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Dawg) $2.40 $0.49 0.20x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) [CRYSTAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CRYSTAL) $2.40 $1.06 0.44x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) [CRYSTAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CRYSTAL) $2.40 $1.06 0.44x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.40 | 92.10% | 96 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.40 | 92.05% | 96 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.40 | 92.07% | 96 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 96 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 96 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 96 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 96 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.40 | 92.03% | 96 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 96 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 96 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.4% covert 0.1% red 0.0% classified 1.7% Classified 0.0% Restricted 4.5% restricted 14.0% #d32ee6 0.2% Mythical 2.2% Legendary 0.0% milspec 23.6% #8847ff 7.0% mil spec 16.7% Mil Spec 5.4% violet 1.8% Rare 10.1% Mil Spec Grade 4.8% #4b69ff 5.3% best hit $126 (52.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt