---
title: "Pixel case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pixel ($1.29) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 54 items with odds, observed 92.53% over 3,637 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Pixel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Pixel

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case?window=all)

Price · $1.29

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $1.19 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.53% · 3,637 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.84% ±7.96 691 openings

7 days · 92.34% ±3.75 3,227 openings

30 days · 92.53% ±3.53 3,637 openings

since tracking started · 92.53% ±3.53 3,637 openings

83.0% 91.8% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case?window=24h) | 691 | 91.84% ±7.96 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case?window=7d) | 3,227 | 92.34% ±3.75 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case) | 3,637 | 92.53% ±3.53 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/pixel-case?window=all) | 3,637 | 92.53% ±3.53 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,637 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $27.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $26.86 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $21.70 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $21.19 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $20.69 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $16.41 | 0.2% | 7 | 0.6 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) | 1 in 4,545 | $11.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $11.03 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $11.02 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.45 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $9.14 | 0.1% | 6 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-well-worn) | 1 in 1,190 | $8.84 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,222 | $8.72 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 388 | $7.35 | 1.6% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-well-worn) | 1 in 962 | $6.07 | 0.5% | 12 | 3.8 | 3.17× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 126 | $6.00 | 4.0% | 8 | 28.8 | 0.28× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $5.93 | 1.8% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 219 | $5.81 | 2.2% | 26 | 16.6 | 1.56× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $4.10 | 2.8% | 18 | 29.9 | 0.60× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $4.03 | 3.3% | 16 | 35.1 | 0.46× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $3.84 | 2.8% | 35 | 31.7 | 1.10× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $3.45 | 4.2% | 44 | 52.0 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $3.41 | 2.8% | 46 | 35.5 | 1.30× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $3.33 | 3.9% | 49 | 50.6 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $2.86 | 3.9% | 56 | 59.2 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $2.79 | 3.8% | 70 | 58.7 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $1.99 | 3.5% | 69 | 77.0 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.79 | 3.8% | 122 | 91.3 | 1.34× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.65 | 3.9% | 125 | 102.2 | 1.22× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.42 | 3.9% | 125 | 118.0 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $1.40 | 2.9% | 77 | 89.7 | 0.86× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $1.33 | 2.8% | 72 | 90.9 | 0.79× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1.16 | 2.4% | 61 | 87.8 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $1.08 | 1.5% | 78 | 59.2 | 1.32× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $1.07 | 1.7% | 82 | 66.8 | 1.23× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $1.06 | 2.0% | 79 | 79.6 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-inferno-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.06 | 1.9% | 84 | 76.6 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $1.02 | 1.3% | 72 | 57.0 | 1.26× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $1.01 | 1.4% | 58 | 60.2 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.98 | 1.4% | 67 | 60.3 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.97 | 2.0% | 80 | 89.3 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.85 | 1.9% | 97 | 99.0 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.67 | 1.8% | 213 | 116.5 | 1.83× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.66 | 2.1% | 108 | 135.1 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.63 | 2.4% | 107 | 165.5 | 0.65× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.53 | 2.0% | 147 | 161.7 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.52 | 1.4% | 167 | 118.2 | 1.41× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.51 | 1.7% | 142 | 143.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.46 | 1.6% | 156 | 154.7 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.42 | 1.3% | 156 | 134.3 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.37 | 1.3% | 86 | 155.3 | 0.55× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.35 | 1.5% | 225 | 188.4 | 1.19× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.32 | 1.5% | 135 | 201.3 | 0.67× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.31 | 1.6% | 219 | 221.0 | 0.99× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/pixel-case`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=pixel-case)

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) [mekthereal](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/mekthereal) $1.29 $0.65 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) [mekthereal](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/mekthereal) $1.29 $3.32 2.57x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-field-tested) [mekthereal](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/mekthereal) $1.29 $0.46 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-field-tested) [f1YbEn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/f1YbEn) $1.29 $0.46 0.36x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [f1YbEn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/f1YbEn) $1.29 $0.86 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [f1YbEn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/f1YbEn) $1.29 $0.86 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) [Stihl](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stihl) $1.29 $1.65 1.28x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) [Stihl](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stihl) $1.29 $0.95 0.74x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) [Stihl](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stihl) $1.29 $0.35 0.27x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) [Stihl](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stihl) $1.29 $1.05 0.81x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.29 | 92.05% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.29 | 92.08% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.29 | 92.09% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.29 | 92.02% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.29 | 92.01% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.29 | 92.01% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.29 | 92.01% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 54 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $1.29 | 92.02% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.6% #d32ee6 1.3% pink 5.7% mil spec 1.6% Legendary 0.4% milspec 16.7% blue 1.6% restricted 28.4% #4b69ff 10.8% #8847ff 5.7% violet 18.6% Mythical 4.9% Rare 3.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt