---
title: "Prime case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Prime case ($1.29) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.09% from 35 items with odds, observed 77.95% over 296 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Prime case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Prime case

A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case?window=all)

Price · $1.29

Advertised RTP · 92.09% · EV $1.19 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.95% · 296 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 25 openings · below min

7 days · 80.52% ±17.19 218 openings

30 days · 77.95% ±14.74 296 openings

since tracking started · 77.95% ±14.74 296 openings

31.0% 83.0% 135.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case?window=24h) | 25 | 82.88% ±51.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case?window=7d) | 218 | 80.52% ±17.2 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case) | 296 | 77.95% ±14.7 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prime-case?window=all) | 296 | 77.95% ±14.7 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $33.84 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $29.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $13.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,923 | $12.64 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 870 | $11.57 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) | 1 in 249 | $10.96 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 180 | $10.38 | 4.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $8.03 | 7.4% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $4.75 | 3.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $4.27 | 7.3% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.41 | 5.7% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.31 | 9.7% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.72 | 5.3% | 7 | 10.8 | 0.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.31 | 4.6% | 14 | 12.4 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.28 | 5.1% | 14 | 14.1 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.98 | 5.2% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.93 | 3.3% | 20 | 12.5 | 1.60× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.93 | 3.3% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.82 | 2.3% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.81 | 2.4% | 7 | 10.5 | 0.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $0.72 | 1.3% | 14 | 6.2 | 2.26× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.70 | 2.0% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.71× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.67 | 1.5% | 12 | 7.7 | 1.56× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.66 | 1.8% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.66 | 1.7% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-ventilators-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.55 | 1.5% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.45× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.54 | 1.3% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.49 | 1.4% | 8 | 10.0 | 0.80× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.45 | 1.9% | 10 | 15.2 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.44 | 1.4% | 20 | 11.4 | 1.75× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.44 | 1.4% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.26× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.44 | 1.6% | 7 | 12.7 | 0.55× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.41 | 1.6% | 14 | 13.9 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.36 | 1.4% | 16 | 13.5 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 1.4% | 16 | 14.1 | 1.13× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/prime-case`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=prime-case)

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [БАРЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%91%D0%90%D0%A0%D0%AF) $1.29 $0.36 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

[P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-field-tested) [ATLET\_3OShBr](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ATLET_3OShBr) $1.29 $0.41 0.32x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [mekthereal](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/mekthereal) $1.29 $0.81 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-well-worn) [❦حب المال♂](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%9D%A6%D8%AD%D8%A8%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%E2%99%82) $1.29 $0.70 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [❦حب المال♂](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%9D%A6%D8%AD%D8%A8%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%E2%99%82) $1.29 $0.98 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Galil AR | Tuxedo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-well-worn) [❦حب المال♂](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%9D%A6%D8%AD%D8%A8%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%E2%99%82) $1.29 $0.93 0.72x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-battle-scarred) [❦حب المال♂](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%9D%A6%D8%AD%D8%A8%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%E2%99%82) $1.29 $0.44 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-factory-new) [❦حب المال♂](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%9D%A6%D8%AD%D8%A8%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%E2%99%82) $1.29 $1.27 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) [❦حب المال♂](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%9D%A6%D8%AD%D8%A8%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%E2%99%82) $1.29 $1.30 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) [hels1s](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/hels1s) $1.29 $0.97 0.75x 2026-11-11 07:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $1.29 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.29 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.29 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.29 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.29 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.29 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.29 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.6% Classified 0.0% Legendary 0.2% #d32ee6 0.4% restricted 28.1% Uncommon 2.9% pink 2.0% mil spec 22.3% milspec 23.4% Mil Spec Grade 8.3% Mythical 3.3% Rare 3.3% Restricted 5.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.09 on average: an expected loss of $7.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt