---
title: "Prize Wheel case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Prize Wheel ($4.85) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.08% from 35 items with odds, observed 90.27% over 2,696 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Prize Wheel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Prize Wheel

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop?window=all)

Price · $4.85

Advertised RTP · 92.08% · EV $4.47 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.27% · 2,696 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.51% ±8.43 434 openings

7 days · 89.50% ±3.75 2,141 openings

30 days · 90.27% ±3.33 2,696 openings

since tracking started · 90.27% ±3.33 2,696 openings

77.5% 86.5% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop?window=24h) | 434 | 86.51% ±8.43 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop?window=7d) | 2,141 | 89.50% ±3.75 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop) | 2,696 | 90.27% ±3.33 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/prize-wheel-ggdrop?window=all) | 2,696 | 90.27% ±3.33 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,697 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $35.23 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 265 | $30.61 | 2.6% | 2 | 10.2 | 0.20× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 304 | $22.77 | 1.7% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 826 | $21.65 | 0.6% | 10 | 3.3 | 3.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $20.09 | 1.9% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 172 | $19.20 | 2.5% | 10 | 15.7 | 0.64× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 346 | $18.25 | 1.2% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 214 | $17.04 | 1.8% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 165 | $16.98 | 2.3% | 20 | 16.4 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $13.96 | 1.9% | 21 | 16.7 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 240 | $13.93 | 1.3% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $13.88 | 3.4% | 14 | 29.4 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111 | $13.65 | 2.8% | 25 | 24.4 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $12.35 | 3.2% | 28 | 31.2 | 0.90× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $12.34 | 3.8% | 32 | 37.4 | 0.86× |
| [The Elite Mr. Muhlik \| Elite Crew agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-elite-mr-muhlik-elite-crew) | 1 in 69 | $9.90 | 3.2% | 56 | 38.9 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $9.80 | 3.9% | 51 | 48.1 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $7.45 | 3.6% | 64 | 57.9 | 1.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $7.37 | 4.3% | 48 | 69.6 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $7.20 | 4.1% | 69 | 69.0 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $6.15 | 4.4% | 93 | 86.4 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $5.82 | 3.3% | 74 | 67.3 | 1.10× |
| [Dragomir \| Sabre agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dragomir-sabre) | 1 in 31 | $5.77 | 4.2% | 70 | 86.7 | 0.81× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $5.58 | 4.5% | 95 | 97.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $4.68 | 3.8% | 89 | 97.3 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.00 | 3.6% | 122 | 109.0 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $3.41 | 3.9% | 129 | 137.6 | 0.94× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $3.33 | 4.6% | 152 | 166.4 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $2.40 | 3.4% | 168 | 171.3 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.07 | 2.9% | 183 | 171.2 | 1.07× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Goop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-goop) | 1 in 15 | $2.07 | 3.0% | 186 | 176.0 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Amberline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-amberline-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.79 | 2.7% | 203 | 181.3 | 1.12× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $1.25 | 2.2% | 193 | 214.0 | 0.90× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.08 | 1.6% | 188 | 179.4 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.88 | 1.7% | 246 | 235.7 | 1.04× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/prize-wheel-ggdrop`, 11 Nov, 20:46 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=prize-wheel-ggdrop)

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-amberline-well-worn) [Parkan](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Parkan) $4.85 $1.74 0.36x 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [Parkan](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Parkan) $4.85 $2.07 0.43x 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-battle-scarred) [ADOLF](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ADOLF) $4.85 $0.87 0.18x 2026-11-11 22:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-amberline-well-worn) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/1) $4.85 $1.74 0.36x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) [Chaba](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Chaba) $4.85 $13.66 2.82x 2026-11-11 21:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) [vanyasmirnov606](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/vanyasmirnov606) $4.85 $7.20 1.48x 2026-11-11 21:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) [Chili](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Chili) $4.85 $6.15 1.27x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) [Chili](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Chili) $4.85 $3.33 0.69x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) [akama\[sos\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/akama%5Bsos%5D) $4.85 $2.40 0.49x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-battle-scarred) [akama\[sos\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/akama%5Bsos%5D) $4.85 $0.88 0.18x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $4.85 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $4.85 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.85 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $4.85 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $4.85 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.85 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $4.85 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.85 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.85 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $4.85 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $4.85 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.85 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.85 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $4.85 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $4.85 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.85 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.4% pink 10.1% classified 4.9% #d32ee6 7.1% restricted 23.4% red 1.2% master 1.4% uncommon 1.8% Mythical 9.3% Legendary 7.2% mil spec 2.5% violet 3.2% Rare 6.3% #8847ff 21.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.08 on average: an expected loss of $7.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt