---
title: "Recoil case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Recoil case ($6.11) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.83% from 39 items with odds, observed 77.18% over 154 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Recoil case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Recoil case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil?window=all)

Price · $6.11

Advertised RTP · 75.83% · EV $4.63 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.18% · 154 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 75.56% ±22.49 144 openings

30 days · 77.18% ±21.74 154 openings

since tracking started · 77.18% ±21.74 154 openings

-0.5% 58.0% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil?window=24h) | 20 | 55.41% ±60.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil?window=7d) | 144 | 75.56% ±22.5 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil) | 154 | 77.18% ±21.7 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/recoil?window=all) | 154 | 77.18% ±21.7 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds summed to 0.9468, rescaled · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 408 | $40.24 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $40.16 | 13.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $35.93 | 13.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $35.18 | 14.1% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $8.24 | 8.4% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $5.48 | 6.6% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.98 | 8.9% | 17 | 12.7 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.76 | 8.6% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.03 | 5.5% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.99 | 3.6% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $3.86 | 3.7% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $3.84 | 4.6% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.18× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.07 | 1.3% | 4 | 8.9 | 0.45× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.80 | 1.3% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.29× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.78 | 1.5% | 13 | 13.5 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) | 11.1% | $0.62 | 1.6% | 26 | 18.1 | 1.43× |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $0.57 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-well-worn) | 1 in 203 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 254 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-well-worn) | 1 in 1,053 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 256 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 291 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) | 1 in 269 | $0.33 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 389 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-battle-scarred) | 1 in 173 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 279 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 350 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 174 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 212 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,389 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) | 1 in 211 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-well-worn) | 1 in 207 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/recoil`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=recoil)

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $6.11 $4.06 0.66x 2026-11-11 03:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $0.63 0.10x 2026-11-11 02:50 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $5.49 0.90x 2026-11-11 02:50 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $0.46 0.08x 2026-11-11 02:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $0.63 0.10x 2026-11-11 02:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $4.78 0.78x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $0.78 0.13x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-minimal-wear) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $0.78 0.13x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $3.99 0.65x 2026-11-11 02:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $6.11 $8.26 1.35x 2026-11-11 02:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $6.11 | 75.83% | 39 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $6.11 | 75.81% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $6.11 | 77.51% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $6.11 | 76.75% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $6.11 | 77.79% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $6.11 | 77.58% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $6.11 | 77.42% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $6.11 | 78.84% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $6.11 | 75.46% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.11 | 75.43% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $6.11 | 78.72% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $6.11 | 77.30% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $6.11 | 77.85% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $6.11 | 77.05% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $6.11 | 75.48% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $6.11 | 76.94% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $6.11 | 74.64% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $6.11 | 78.86% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $6.11 | 79.24% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $6.11 | 77.43% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.11 | 75.16% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.11 | 78.80% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $6.11 | 74.39% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $6.11 | 76.38% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $6.11 | 79.31% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $6.11 | 76.05% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $6.11 | 76.90% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.11 | 78.66% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $6.11 | 78.17% | 39 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $6.11 | 75.75% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% Ancient 3.5% Legendary 12.4% pink 32.5% Mythical 14.1% Rare 19.9% #4b69ff 1.6% #8847ff 2.0% violet 3.0% milspec 1.9% #4B69FF 0.8% blue 1.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.83 on average: an expected loss of $24.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt