---
title: "Restricted case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Restricted ($3.61) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.84% from 59 items with odds, observed 83.56% over 277 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Restricted

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted?window=all)

Price · $3.61

Advertised RTP · 89.84% · EV $3.24 from 59 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.56% · 277 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 61 openings · below min

7 days · 84.28% ±13.25 266 openings

30 days · 83.56% ±12.99 277 openings

since tracking started · 83.56% ±12.99 277 openings

70.0% 102.0% 134.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted?window=24h) | 61 | 105.36% ±27.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted?window=7d) | 266 | 84.28% ±13.3 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted) | 277 | 83.56% ±13.0 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/restricted?window=all) | 277 | 83.56% ±13.0 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 59 items · odds summed to 0.9924, rescaled · observed counts over 277 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 719 | $55.22 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $43.51 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $41.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 813 | $33.10 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 524 | $26.66 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 870 | $22.87 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $21.70 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 990 | $19.04 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $17.50 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 259 | $15.84 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $14.19 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $14.15 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188 | $12.74 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180 | $11.94 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $11.35 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $10.08 | 2.6% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $9.71 | 2.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $9.18 | 2.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $8.79 | 2.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $8.31 | 1.9% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $8.14 | 2.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $7.25 | 2.6% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $6.93 | 2.9% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $6.86 | 3.1% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $5.86 | 3.3% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $5.50 | 3.0% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $4.59 | 3.1% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.50× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $4.51 | 3.7% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $4.34 | 3.1% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.27 | 3.0% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.06 | 2.5% | 9 | 5.6 | 1.61× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $3.57 | 2.4% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $3.28 | 2.7% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $2.98 | 3.0% | 13 | 9.0 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $2.43 | 2.8% | 6 | 10.4 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.36 | 2.6% | 14 | 9.8 | 1.43× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.29 | 2.6% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $1.97 | 2.3% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.88 | 1.5% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.22× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.81 | 1.8% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.49 | 1.7% | 7 | 10.0 | 0.70× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.42 | 1.4% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.37 | 1.3% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.34 | 1.5% | 5 | 9.9 | 0.51× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.90 | 0.7% | 2 | 7.4 | 0.27× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.89 | 0.8% | 18 | 7.9 | 2.27× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.82 | 0.8% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.79 | 0.9% | 10 | 10.6 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $0.70 | 0.3% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.87× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.67 | 0.4% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| dev\_texture (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-dev-texture-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.63 | 0.3% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.71× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.63 | 0.3% | 10 | 4.7 | 2.14× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.60 | 0.3% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $0.53 | 0.2% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.38× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $0.44 | 0.2% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/restricted`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=restricted)

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $0.66 0.18x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $3.54 0.98x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $15.75 4.36x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-dream-glade-minimal-wear) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $0.91 0.25x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $7.27 2.01x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $4.32 1.20x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $1.78 0.49x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $4.05 1.12x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $0.78 0.22x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) [LOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LOM) $3.61 $5.47 1.52x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $3.61 | 89.84% | 59 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3.61 | 90.28% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $3.61 | 89.19% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $3.61 | 89.32% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $3.61 | 89.43% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $3.61 | 89.90% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $3.61 | 89.42% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $3.61 | 89.85% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $3.61 | 88.93% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.61 | 89.25% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $3.61 | 89.05% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $3.61 | 89.85% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $3.61 | 89.22% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $3.61 | 89.24% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $3.61 | 89.74% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $3.61 | 88.93% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $3.61 | 89.66% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $3.61 | 89.53% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $3.61 | 89.54% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $3.61 | 89.65% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.61 | 90.11% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.61 | 89.25% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.61 | 89.63% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.61 | 89.23% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $3.61 | 89.29% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $3.61 | 90.11% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $3.61 | 89.02% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.61 | 90.08% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.61 | 89.66% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $3.61 | 89.24% | 59 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 42.0% Mythical 18.7% violet 20.4% #8847ff 15.0% Restricted 3.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.84 on average: an expected loss of $10.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt