---
title: "Retro case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Retro ($55.61) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.09% from 146 items with odds, observed 100.93% over 283 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Retro](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Retro

A case on GGDROP (multicases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro?window=all)

Price · $55.61

Advertised RTP · 92.09% · EV $51.21 from 146 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.93% · 283 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 99.84% ±20.99 265 openings

30 days · 100.93% ±19.96 283 openings

since tracking started · 100.93% ±19.96 283 openings

-0.5% 130.3% 261.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro?window=24h) | 11 | 69.44% ±190.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro?window=7d) | 265 | 99.84% ±21.0 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro) | 283 | 100.93% ±20.0 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/retro?window=all) | 283 | 100.93% ±20.0 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 146 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 283 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $13.2K | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $800 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,439 | $763 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $692 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $671 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $657 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $650 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $643 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $636 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $623 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $575 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $557 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $488 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $462 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $444 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $412 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 855 | $412 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 746 | $401 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 508 | $319 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,351 | $283 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 446 | $269 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $266 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $264 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 602 | $253 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 613 | $248 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 503 | $229 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 424 | $218 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $207 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 532 | $194 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 595 | $193 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 633 | $188 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 424 | $185 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 350 | $172 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 452 | $172 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 448 | $170 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 218 | $163 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $162 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 524 | $158 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 469 | $157 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 585 | $156 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 1,099 | $153 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 1,235 | $149 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 498 | $147 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 422 | $142 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 379 | $137 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 769 | $135 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $135 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 485 | $133 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 427 | $133 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 730 | $130 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $129 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $128 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,149 | $127 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 427 | $127 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 578 | $126 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $122 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 518 | $120 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 420 | $119 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 380 | $117 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 508 | $117 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $116 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 513 | $115 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 418 | $115 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 775 | $114 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 439 | $110 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 581 | $108 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 300 | $108 | 0.7% | 4 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 265 | $107 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $101 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 244 | $101 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 361 | $99.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 235 | $98.97 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 348 | $95.60 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 450 | $94.94 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 230 | $93.00 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 248 | $92.63 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 238 | $92.50 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.52× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $92.21 | 0.7% | 5 | 1.0 | 4.76× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $92.11 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 245 | $91.86 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $89.58 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $86.73 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 129 | $83.19 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $78.56 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $75.37 | 1.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $70.65 | 1.6% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $69.61 | 1.5% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $66.15 | 1.4% | 8 | 3.2 | 2.53× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $63.44 | 1.4% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $60.93 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $58.25 | 1.3% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $58.21 | 1.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $56.92 | 1.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $56.41 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $54.35 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $51.45 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $51.00 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.85× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $49.60 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $49.18 | 0.8% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $48.14 | 0.6% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.27× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $46.54 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $45.80 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 141 | $45.75 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $45.51 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $44.27 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 132 | $42.62 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 146 | $41.82 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $41.61 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 134 | $41.20 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $41.01 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.77× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $40.07 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $38.63 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 146 | $38.10 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $38.05 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $37.45 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 158 | $36.49 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 217 | $35.43 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $35.38 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.17× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $35.09 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $34.45 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $34.22 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 102 | $34.04 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 97 | $33.71 | 0.7% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $33.29 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $31.93 | 0.8% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.61× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $30.93 | 1.0% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $30.65 | 1.1% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $28.25 | 1.3% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $27.39 | 1.3% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $20.48 | 1.2% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $18.77 | 1.3% | 5 | 10.3 | 0.49× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $17.32 | 1.3% | 15 | 10.6 | 1.41× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $16.78 | 1.4% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $14.35 | 0.7% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $13.87 | 0.6% | 13 | 6.3 | 2.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $13.42 | 0.5% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $13.40 | 0.6% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $12.96 | 0.4% | 9 | 4.5 | 2.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $7.56 | 0.3% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $7.19 | 0.3% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $6.43 | 0.3% | 2 | 7.7 | 0.26× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $5.23 | 0.3% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.84× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.98 | 0.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $4.75 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) | 1 in 80 | $1.14 | 0.0% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noir music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tim-huling-neo-noir) | 1 in 116 | $0.77 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/retro`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-freehand-battle-scarred) [kuzzi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/kuzzi) $55.61 $779 14.02x 2026-11-05 01:03 UTC

[★ Karambit | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-field-tested) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/) $55.61 $599 10.76x 2026-11-03 16:04 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [K4me](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/K4me) $55.61 $545 9.79x 2026-11-06 21:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=retro)

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [Enr!en](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Enr!en) $55.61 $5.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [L4he$T](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/L4he%24T) $55.61 $70.68 1.27x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) [Arabesqaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Arabesqaa) $55.61 $30.69 0.55x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) [Arabesqaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Arabesqaa) $55.61 $75.39 1.36x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) [Arabesqaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Arabesqaa) $55.61 $37.46 0.67x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) [Arabesqaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Arabesqaa) $55.61 $36.43 0.66x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) [Arabesqaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Arabesqaa) $55.61 $66.02 1.19x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) [Arabesqaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Arabesqaa) $55.61 $34.23 0.62x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) [Arabesqaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Arabesqaa) $55.61 $33.71 0.61x 2026-11-11 05:49 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) [Tau](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Tau) $55.61 $20.63 0.37x 2026-11-11 00:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $55.61 | 92.09% | 146 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $55.61 | 92.04% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $55.61 | 92.06% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $55.61 | 92.10% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $55.61 | 92.06% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $55.61 | 92.10% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $55.61 | 92.09% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $55.61 | 92.06% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $55.61 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $55.61 | 92.08% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $55.61 | 92.02% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $55.61 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $55.61 | 92.04% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $55.61 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $55.61 | 92.10% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $55.61 | 92.10% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $55.61 | 92.06% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $55.61 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $55.61 | 92.00% | 146 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 0.5% #EB4B4B 0.0% other 0.1% covert 36.2% Covert 2.3% covert knife 0.2% extraordinary 1.1% classified 42.0% rare 0.2% epic 0.2% #eb4b4b 1.5% red 2.7% Ancient 3.5% #d32ee6 1.3% Classified 2.4% pink 2.6% Legendary 1.0% #4B69FF 1.2% High Grade 0.9% best hit $779 (14.02x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.09 on average: an expected loss of $7.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt