---
title: "Sapphire case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sapphire ($1,149.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.01% from 33 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium
rendered: 2026-11-12T15:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Sapphire

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium?window=all)

Price · $1,149.00

Advertised RTP · 92.01% · EV $1,057.25 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sapphire-premium?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 131 | $7,028 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 87 | $6,545 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 188 | $6,543 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 69 | $4,870 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 69 | $4,561 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 80 | $4,404 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 45 | $2,339 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $2,071 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 28 | $1,481 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 21 | $1,340 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 32 | $1,321 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 26 | $1,154 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 40 | $1,066 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · #ffd700 · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 42 | $993 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 39 | $984 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 36 | $924 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 39 | $917 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 44 | $809 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 34 | $737 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 34 | $616 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 24 | $604 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · #ffd700 · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 27 | $525 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · #ffd700 · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 27 | $521 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $507 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 33 | $498 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 39 | $495 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 31 | $372 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 27 | $367 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 22 | $337 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 19 | $323 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 25 | $311 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $257 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 16 | $197 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/sapphire-premium`, 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=sapphire-premium)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | $1,149 | 92.01% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 74.0% legendary 7.7% #ffd700 9.7% gold 8.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.01 on average: an expected loss of $7.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt