---
title: "Shadow Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shadow Case ($2.40) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.06% from 122 items with odds, observed 86.34% over 411 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Shadow Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Shadow Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow?window=all)

Price · $2.40

Advertised RTP · 92.06% · EV $2.21 from 122 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.34% · 411 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 51 openings · below min

7 days · 88.97% ±19.67 343 openings

30 days · 86.34% ±17.87 411 openings

since tracking started · 86.34% ±17.87 411 openings

27.0% 80.0% 133.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow?window=24h) | 51 | 80.23% ±52.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow?window=7d) | 343 | 88.97% ±19.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow) | 411 | 86.34% ±17.9 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/shadow?window=all) | 411 | 86.34% ±17.9 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 122 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 411 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $143 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $117 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $109 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $96.75 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $75.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $74.15 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $73.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $68.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $67.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $67.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $65.53 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $58.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $55.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $43.61 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $38.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $38.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $37.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $36.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $35.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,125 | $32.94 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $31.96 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $31.05 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $30.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $27.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $25.07 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $23.22 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $23.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $21.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-well-worn) | 1 in 1,613 | $18.70 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,762 | $17.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $17.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $17.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $16.80 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 741 | $15.28 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $14.10 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 870 | $12.86 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 690 | $12.48 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 376 | $11.49 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 552 | $11.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) | 1 in 478 | $9.80 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 426 | $9.27 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 680 | $9.14 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 256 | $8.42 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $8.09 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 402 | $8.08 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 318 | $7.48 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 1,064 | $7.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-well-worn) | 1 in 366 | $7.42 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 259 | $7.21 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-factory-new) | 1 in 606 | $7.02 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $6.93 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $5.97 | 1.7% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $5.93 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $5.73 | 1.9% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $5.33 | 2.0% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $4.81 | 1.8% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $4.61 | 1.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $4.34 | 2.7% | 2 | 5.7 | 0.35× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $4.19 | 2.1% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.32× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $3.82 | 1.7% | 8 | 4.0 | 1.99× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $3.39 | 1.8% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $3.12 | 1.8% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $3.11 | 2.0% | 6 | 6.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $3.11 | 1.7% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $3.07 | 1.5% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.88× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $3.03 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 295 | $2.99 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.15× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $2.90 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $2.85 | 0.9% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $2.85 | 0.9% | 8 | 2.9 | 2.75× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-nebula-crusader-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $2.73 | 1.0% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.19× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $2.71 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-nebula-crusader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 134 | $2.60 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $2.51 | 1.4% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $2.29 | 1.4% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $2.28 | 1.4% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $2.23 | 1.3% | 13 | 5.5 | 2.37× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $2.14 | 1.3% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $2.12 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $2.05 | 1.1% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.10× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $2.03 | 1.2% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $1.88 | 1.0% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $1.85 | 1.2% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.19× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $1.80 | 1.3% | 12 | 6.5 | 1.85× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $1.53 | 1.3% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $1.50 | 1.0% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $1.50 | 1.2% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $1.49 | 1.2% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $1.48 | 1.2% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $1.36 | 0.6% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $1.30 | 0.7% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $1.28 | 0.8% | 13 | 5.8 | 2.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $1.22 | 0.9% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-survivor-z-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $1.22 | 0.9% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $1.18 | 0.9% | 1 | 7.3 | 0.14× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $1.14 | 0.7% | 9 | 5.3 | 1.70× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $1.12 | 0.7% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $1.08 | 0.8% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-scumbria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $1.05 | 0.8% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $0.95 | 0.8% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.82 | 0.8% | 4 | 9.1 | 0.44× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.80 | 1.0% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-green-marine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.78 | 1.0% | 9 | 12.1 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.78 | 1.1% | 9 | 12.8 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $0.53 | 0.7% | 8 | 11.2 | 0.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.51 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.49 | 0.5% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-scumbria-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.47 | 0.7% | 10 | 13.3 | 0.75× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 9 | 3.4 | 2.62× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.34× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.42 | 0.2% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $0.41 | 0.2% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.82× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.38 | 0.2% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $0.34 | 0.2% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.19× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.53× |
| [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $0.29 | 0.2% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.29 | 0.1% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.43× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $0.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/shadow`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=shadow)

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-factory-new) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $2.40 $1.50 0.63x 2026-11-11 02:57 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-battle-scarred) [DODO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DODO) $2.40 $1.31 0.55x 2026-11-11 02:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Survivor Z (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-survivor-z-well-worn) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $1.20 0.50x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-cobalt-core-minimal-wear) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $1.14 0.48x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

[M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-minimal-wear) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $2.47 1.03x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $1.25 0.52x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-well-worn) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $1.80 0.75x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

[XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-field-tested) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $0.32 0.13x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $3.13 1.30x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $3.00 1.25x 2026-11-11 01:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.40 | 92.06% | 122 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 122 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.40 | 92.09% | 122 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 122 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $2.40 | 92.05% | 122 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.40 | 92.05% | 122 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 122 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.40 | 92.09% | 122 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.40 | 92.03% | 122 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.40 | 92.06% | 122 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.40 | 92.02% | 122 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 122 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.0% classified 1.2% covert 0.1% gold 0.0% Classified 0.0% Restricted 5.1% restricted 19.1% #d32ce6 0.0% #8847ff 2.5% pink 0.3% #d32ee6 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 6.2% milspec 34.5% violet 5.6% blue 0.4% Mythical 3.2% #4b69ff 3.0% mil spec 8.6% Rare 6.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.06 on average: an expected loss of $7.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt