---
title: "Silver Knife case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Silver Knife ($179.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.91% from 43 items with odds, observed 100.28% over 156 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Silver Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Silver Knife

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife?window=all)

Price · $179.00

Advertised RTP · 91.91% · EV $164.51 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.28% · 156 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 101.66% ±10.19 136 openings

30 days · 100.28% ±9.50 156 openings

since tracking started · 100.28% ±9.50 156 openings

22.5% 90.0% 157.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife?window=24h) | 5 | 89.88% ±66.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife?window=7d) | 136 | 101.66% ±10.2 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife) | 156 | 100.28% ±9.50 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/silver-knife?window=all) | 156 | 100.28% ±9.50 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $403 | 7.0% | 10 | 4.5 | 2.24× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $401 | 7.7% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.41× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $394 | 9.6% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 39 | $382 | 6.0% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.48× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $303 | 5.5% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $255 | 6.0% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 26 | $255 | 6.1% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $195 | 5.9% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.16× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $188 | 4.4% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.48× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $183 | 4.2% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.72× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $182 | 3.7% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $177 | 3.7% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.75× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $154 | 2.4% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.51× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $134 | 2.8% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.75× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $103 | 3.3% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $102 | 3.3% | 4 | 8.4 | 0.47× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $101 | 2.9% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $101 | 1.6% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.44× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $101 | 1.4% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.73× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $95.95 | 0.9% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.59× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $86.61 | 1.1% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $81.22 | 1.3% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $77.94 | 1.6% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $75.19 | 1.2% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $72.07 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $67.07 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $65.21 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $62.84 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 422 | $62.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 244 | $61.44 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $59.63 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 319 | $59.61 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 214 | $59.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $58.31 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $54.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 129 | $53.74 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 735 | $52.31 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $51.01 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $50.76 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $50.52 | 0.3% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.23× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $49.91 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $44.15 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $43.22 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/silver-knife`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=silver-knife)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) [MonTesCZ88](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/MonTesCZ88) $179 $50.94 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [NEGEVBOT](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NEGEVBOT) $179 $175 0.98x 2026-11-11 07:29 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [NEGEVBOT](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NEGEVBOT) $179 $184 1.03x 2026-11-11 07:22 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-well-worn) [Pavs0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Pavs0n) $179 $197 1.10x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-well-worn) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $179 $197 1.10x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-field-tested) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $179 $86.49 0.48x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $179 $154 0.86x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $179 $415 2.32x 2026-11-10 14:20 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $179 $383 2.14x 2026-11-10 14:20 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $179 $137 0.77x 2026-11-10 14:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $179 | 91.92% | 43 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $179 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $179 | 91.97% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $179 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $179 | 91.97% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $179 | 91.94% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $179 | 91.97% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $179 | 91.92% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $179 | 91.92% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $179 | 91.90% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $179 | 91.95% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $179 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $179 | 91.95% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $179 | 91.92% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $179 | 91.94% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $179 | 91.91% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $179 | 91.90% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $179 | 91.93% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $179 | 91.97% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $179 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $179 | 91.93% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $179 | 91.92% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 63.9% covert knife 28.3% epic 2.5% gold 1.6% #ffd700 2.5% Covert 1.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.91 on average: an expected loss of $8.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt