---
title: "Sims Cat case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sims Cat ($1.09) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.06% from 28 items with odds, observed 100.59% over 4,242 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Sims Cat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Sims Cat

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat?window=all)

Price · $1.09

Advertised RTP · 92.06% · EV $1.00 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.59% · 4,242 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100.90% ±7.11 539 openings

7 days · 101.41% ±2.71 3,746 openings

30 days · 100.59% ±2.56 4,242 openings

since tracking started · 100.59% ±2.56 4,242 openings

91.5% 100.0% 108.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (98.04% – 103.15%, 4,242 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat?window=24h) | 539 | 100.90% ±7.11 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat?window=7d) | 3,746 | 101.41% ±2.71 | +6.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat) | 4,242 | 100.59% ±2.56 | +6.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/sims-cat?window=all) | 4,242 | 100.59% ±2.56 | +6.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,243 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 410 | $5.84 | 1.4% | 7 | 10.4 | 0.68× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 415 | $5.81 | 1.4% | 29 | 10.2 | 2.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $4.93 | 4.4% | 31 | 38.2 | 0.81× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Well-Worn) weapon · 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $3.74 | 2.8% | 35 | 32.1 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $3.44 | 3.3% | 39 | 40.4 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $3.31 | 3.0% | 41 | 38.2 | 1.07× |
| [Charm \| Eye of Ball charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-eye-of-ball) | 1 in 79 | $3.04 | 3.8% | 60 | 53.4 | 1.12× |
| [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 82 | $2.78 | 3.4% | 68 | 51.7 | 1.31× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $2.59 | 5.1% | 81 | 83.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $2.41 | 4.6% | 101 | 82.0 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $2.35 | 5.4% | 102 | 98.4 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $1.92 | 5.5% | 124 | 121.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.71 | 5.6% | 167 | 139.9 | 1.19× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.71 | 6.1% | 132 | 150.8 | 0.88× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.98 | 4.3% | 220 | 186.1 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.97 | 4.5% | 200 | 198.6 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.92 | 6.0% | 259 | 277.7 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.81 | 2.6% | 276 | 134.3 | 2.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.71 | 3.0% | 181 | 182.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.67 | 3.1% | 180 | 196.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-wave-breaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.63 | 3.0% | 222 | 200.4 | 1.11× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.63 | 3.1% | 189 | 210.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.51 | 2.4% | 286 | 200.9 | 1.42× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.51 | 2.5% | 309 | 206.6 | 1.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.51 | 2.4% | 228 | 204.3 | 1.12× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Chomper charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-chomper) | 1 in 18 | $0.43 | 2.4% | 291 | 242.1 | 1.20× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.36 | 2.5% | 385 | 299.7 | 1.28× |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $0.18 | 2.3% | 0 | 552.7 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/sims-cat`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=sims-cat)

[Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-well-worn) [Harashy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Harashy) $1.09 $0.93 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Tilted (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-minimal-wear) [director](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/director) $1.09 $0.48 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.09 $0.37 0.34x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.09 $0.99 0.91x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-well-worn) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.09 $1.91 1.75x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Chomper charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-chomper) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.09 $0.43 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.09 $0.65 0.60x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.09 $3.35 3.07x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [DDC](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DDC) $1.09 $1.71 1.57x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) [DDC](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/DDC) $1.09 $0.81 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $1.09 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.09 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.09 | 92.10% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.09 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.09 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.09 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.09 | 92.05% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.09 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.09 | 92.10% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.09 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.09 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.09 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.09 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.09 | 92.03% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.09 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.09 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.09 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.09 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.09 | 92.06% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 4 0.8% classified 0.5% pink 0.9% restricted 14.2% milspec 4.5% #d32ce6 1.3% #8847ff 16.7% violet 25.6% Restricted 3.3% blue 3.2% #4b69ff 11.4% Uncommon 4.8% Common 13.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.06 on average: an expected loss of $7.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt