---
title: "Souvenir case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Souvenir ($1,499.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.98% from 100 items with odds, observed 68.37% over 31 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Souvenir

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir?window=all)

Price · $1,499.00

Advertised RTP · 82.98% · EV $1,243.89 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 68.37% · 31 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 7 openings · below min

7 days · 28 openings · below min

30 days · 31 openings · below min

since tracking started · 31 openings · below min

3.5% 69.3% 135.0%

**Small sample.** 31 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir?window=24h) | 7 | 69.03% ±65.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir?window=7d) | 28 | 73.10% ±32.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir) | 31 | 68.37% ±31.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/souvenir?window=all) | 31 | 68.37% ±31.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 397 | $8,152 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 395 | $8,088 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 377 | $7,397 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 362 | $6,399 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 362 | $6,023 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 293 | $5,798 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-katowice-2014) | 1 in 215 | $5,472 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 306 | $5,327 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $5,195 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $4,939 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 254 | $4,756 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 214 | $4,285 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $3,918 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $3,521 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142 | $3,337 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $3,309 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $3,259 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $3,210 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $3,079 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $3,072 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $3,017 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $2,912 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-field-tested) | 1 in 196 | $2,801 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $2,497 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2,423 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $2,378 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $2,317 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $2,311 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 129 | $2,036 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 92 | $2,026 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $1,912 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1,747 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $1,674 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $1,579 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $1,574 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 107 | $1,505 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 160 | $1,504 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 214 | $1,496 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 220 | $1,494 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 223 | $1,459 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $1,458 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,425 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $1,350 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 170 | $1,319 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 136 | $1,316 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $1,316 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $1,313 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 369 | $1,254 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 180 | $1,238 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $1,214 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 146 | $1,209 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $1,206 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 217 | $1,205 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-katowice-2014) | 1 in 167 | $1,205 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $1,201 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 221 | $1,182 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 207 | $1,161 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $1,094 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $1,060 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $1,018 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $1,000 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $979 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $965 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 135 | $907 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $904 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-katowice-2014) | 1 in 96 | $899 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $893 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $830 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $804 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $777 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $752 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $736 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $693 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $684 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $675 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $655 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $639 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 183 | $633 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $630 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $627 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 157 | $627 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $619 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $617 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-well-worn) | 1 in 140 | $563 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $552 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $536 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $526 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $507 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $488 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $477 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $435 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $429 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $422 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $393 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $379 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $319 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 31 | $283 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 24 | $253 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $225 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 26 | $194 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/souvenir`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) [mfbenn7](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/mfbenn7) $1,499 $4,279 2.85x 2026-11-04 20:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Lemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Lemo) $1,499 $3,010 2.01x 2026-11-05 19:12 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) [Lemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Lemo) $1,499 $2,018 1.35x 2026-11-05 19:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $1,676 1.12x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) [LEGOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LEGOO) $1,499 $1,654 1.10x 2026-11-04 22:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [LEGOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LEGOO) $1,499 $1,552 1.04x 2026-11-04 22:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $1,525 1.02x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [LEGOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LEGOO) $1,499 $1,381 0.92x 2026-11-04 22:24 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) [Lemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Lemo) $1,499 $1,380 0.92x 2026-11-05 19:12 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $1,324 0.88x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=souvenir)

[StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $226 0.15x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $1,525 1.02x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $942 0.63x 2026-11-10 20:33 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $1,324 0.88x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $1,169 0.78x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $1,676 1.12x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cat) $1,499 $381 0.25x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) [johanka](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/johanka) $1,499 $315 0.21x 2026-11-09 16:14 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $1,499 $386 0.26x 2026-11-08 17:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $1,499 $481 0.32x 2026-11-08 00:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1,499 | 82.98% | 100 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1,499 | 82.93% | 100 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1,499 | 82.90% | 100 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1,499 | 82.91% | 100 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1,499 | 82.92% | 100 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1,499 | 82.93% | 100 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1,499 | 82.91% | 100 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1,499 | 82.95% | 100 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1,499 | 82.92% | 100 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1,499 | 82.90% | 100 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1,499 | 82.99% | 100 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1,499 | 82.93% | 100 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1,499 | 82.96% | 100 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1,499 | 82.90% | 100 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1,499 | 82.91% | 100 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,499 | 82.91% | 100 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1,499 | 82.99% | 100 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1,499 | 82.94% | 100 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1,499 | 83.00% | 100 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1,499 | 82.90% | 100 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1,499 | 82.90% | 100 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 1.5% covert 58.8% high 2.8% legendary 2.7% classified 12.1% epic 1.6% restricted 3.0% extraordinary 7.6% Covert 1.3% rare 1.1% covert knife 3.4% Classified 4.2% best hit $4,279 (2.85x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.98 on average: an expected loss of $17.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt