---
title: "Strongman case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Strongman ($5.99) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 43 items with odds, observed 90.12% over 12.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Strongman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Strongman

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman?window=all)

Price · $5.99

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $5.51 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.12% · 12.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.31% ±4.76 1,826 openings

7 days · 90.68% ±2.00 10.3K openings

30 days · 90.12% ±1.84 12.1K openings

since tracking started · 90.12% ±1.84 12.1K openings

87.5% 93.0% 98.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.28% – 91.97%, 12,055 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman?window=24h) | 1,826 | 93.31% ±4.76 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman?window=7d) | 10.3K | 90.68% ±2.00 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman) | 12.1K | 90.12% ±1.84 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/strongman?window=all) | 12.1K | 90.12% ±1.84 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $61.13 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $57.30 | 0.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $55.04 | 0.1% | 6 | 1.7 | 3.53× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 581 | $52.49 | 1.6% | 6 | 20.9 | 0.29× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,408 | $48.01 | 0.6% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $46.80 | 0.1% | 8 | 1.7 | 4.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $41.00 | 0.1% | 14 | 1.7 | 8.24× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $36.32 | 0.1% | 24 | 1.5 | 16.49× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 218 | $35.18 | 2.9% | 29 | 55.7 | 0.52× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 223 | $31.62 | 2.6% | 41 | 54.5 | 0.75× |
| [Col. Mangos Dabisi \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/col-mangos-dabisi-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 215 | $25.52 | 2.2% | 62 | 56.5 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $24.87 | 2.7% | 67 | 72.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $23.21 | 3.9% | 79 | 111.3 | 0.71× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $18.37 | 2.6% | 84 | 93.2 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 132 | $17.11 | 2.4% | 119 | 91.8 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $16.80 | 3.2% | 107 | 125.9 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $15.35 | 3.3% | 132 | 145.3 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 134 | $13.42 | 1.8% | 118 | 90.5 | 1.30× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $13.37 | 2.5% | 122 | 123.4 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $12.22 | 3.3% | 146 | 178.5 | 0.82× |
| [Seal Team 6 Soldier \| NSWC SEAL agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/seal-team-6-soldier-nswc-seal) | 1 in 65 | $11.62 | 3.3% | 185 | 187.3 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $11.38 | 2.7% | 193 | 159.4 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $11.35 | 3.1% | 202 | 184.7 | 1.09× |
| ['The Doctor' Romanov \| Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) | 1 in 53 | $10.88 | 3.7% | 189 | 227.2 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $9.63 | 3.5% | 233 | 243.3 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $9.50 | 3.8% | 233 | 265.0 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $6.75 | 3.8% | 421 | 380.5 | 1.11× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $6.37 | 4.2% | 347 | 437.3 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noon music kit · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-feed-me-high-noon) | 1 in 27 | $5.94 | 4.0% | 541 | 452.5 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $5.25 | 4.5% | 483 | 578.6 | 0.83× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $4.75 | 2.8% | 367 | 391.0 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $4.14 | 3.1% | 463 | 498.3 | 0.93× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $3.84 | 3.3% | 487 | 573.7 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.63 | 3.1% | 552 | 570.9 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $3.25 | 2.7% | 607 | 559.4 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-catacombs-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $2.51 | 2.1% | 519 | 557.3 | 0.93× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.10 | 2.0% | 634 | 642.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.82 | 2.0% | 711 | 737.4 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.72 | 2.0% | 836 | 788.0 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.48 | 1.3% | 803 | 601.5 | 1.34× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $1.34 | 1.1% | 590 | 570.2 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.92 | 0.8% | 697 | 598.6 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.69 | 0.7% | 658 | 685.8 | 0.96× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/strongman`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=strongman)

[MP7 | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) [IKEA | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/IKEA%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $5.99 $1.71 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) [NOT ASL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NOT%20ASL) $5.99 $4.08 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MP7 | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) [NOT ASL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NOT%20ASL) $5.99 $1.71 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) [moNic](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/moNic) $5.99 $0.68 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[MP7 | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $5.99 $1.71 0.29x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $5.99 $24.85 4.15x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Lumen (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-minimal-wear) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $5.99 $2.09 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $5.99 $15.32 2.56x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $5.99 $0.68 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $5.99 $5.23 0.87x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $5.99 | 92.04% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.99 | 92.10% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $5.99 | 92.08% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $5.99 | 92.07% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $5.99 | 92.08% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $5.99 | 92.05% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $5.99 | 92.04% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $5.99 | 92.04% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $5.99 | 92.07% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $5.99 | 92.10% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $5.99 | 92.00% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 5.3% gold 0.0% covert 0.1% classified 22.4% extraordinary 0.2% pink 5.7% Ancient 0.5% red 2.3% violet 17.7% #d32ce6 0.6% uncommon 1.2% industrial 1.0% distinguished 1.5% restricted 12.2% #4B69FF 3.7% #d32ee6 4.1% Mil Spec Grade 4.6% #4b69ff 6.5% blue 4.7% Rare 5.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt