---
title: "Tactical case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tactical case ($1.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.06% from 41 items with odds, observed 98.73% over 1,712 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Tactical case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Tactical case

A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 75.06% · EV $0.75 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.73% · 1,712 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 101.80% ±13.49 266 openings

7 days · 97.59% ±5.95 1,577 openings

30 days · 98.73% ±5.77 1,712 openings

since tracking started · 98.73% ±5.77 1,712 openings

76.5% 96.2% 116.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 78.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.95% – 104.50%, 1,712 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case?window=24h) | 266 | 101.80% ±13.5 | +3.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case?window=7d) | 1,577 | 97.59% ±5.95 | +6.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case) | 1,712 | 98.73% ±5.77 | +6.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tactical-case?window=all) | 1,712 | 98.73% ±5.77 | +6.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds summed to 0.9676, rescaled · observed counts over 1,712 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $35.27 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $17.39 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $16.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $12.70 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $11.72 | 1.0% | 7 | 1.1 | 6.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 571 | $11.35 | 2.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $2.83 | 7.0% | 37 | 31.6 | 1.17× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $2.43 | 5.1% | 46 | 27.0 | 1.70× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $2.17 | 7.4% | 60 | 43.6 | 1.38× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $2.01 | 5.4% | 48 | 34.3 | 1.40× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $1.85 | 5.6% | 44 | 38.7 | 1.14× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $1.49 | 4.8% | 64 | 41.8 | 1.53× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.44 | 5.0% | 67 | 44.7 | 1.50× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $1.01 | 3.7% | 88 | 46.5 | 1.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.97 | 5.3% | 59 | 70.3 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.96 | 3.5% | 85 | 47.1 | 1.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.96 | 3.9% | 72 | 52.0 | 1.38× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.84 | 4.3% | 63 | 65.7 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $0.66 | 2.3% | 23 | 44.4 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $0.66 | 1.6% | 61 | 31.6 | 1.93× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.64 | 1.9% | 46 | 39.0 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.63 | 2.4% | 97 | 49.0 | 1.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $0.62 | 2.3% | 59 | 47.8 | 1.23× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.61 | 1.6% | 64 | 34.6 | 1.85× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $0.57 | 1.3% | 41 | 29.4 | 1.40× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.51 | 1.6% | 69 | 39.8 | 1.73× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-heavy-metal-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.51 | 1.6% | 52 | 40.0 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-triqua-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.51 | 1.4% | 49 | 34.4 | 1.42× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $0.44 | 1.5% | 55 | 42.4 | 1.30× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.43 | 1.5% | 50 | 45.3 | 1.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.41 | 1.5% | 63 | 47.9 | 1.31× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.35 | 1.5% | 34 | 53.6 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-modest-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.35 | 1.6% | 85 | 57.5 | 1.48× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-bioleak-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.35 | 1.7% | 56 | 63.0 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-heavy-metal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.32 | 1.4% | 63 | 54.6 | 1.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.19 | 0.9% | 0 | 59.0 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.19 | 0.9% | 0 | 57.6 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.16 | 0.8% | 0 | 61.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.14 | 0.8% | 0 | 75.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.14 | 0.9% | 0 | 79.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ensnared-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.14 | 0.8% | 0 | 76.6 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/tactical-case`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=tactical-case)

[AUG | Triqua (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.00 $1.51 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Modest Threat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.00 $2.15 2.15x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[AUG | Triqua (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-factory-new) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.00 $1.51 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) [Sedoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sedoy) $1.00 $0.96 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-well-worn) [Sedoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sedoy) $1.00 $0.51 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [Sedoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sedoy) $1.00 $0.44 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-well-worn) [Sedoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sedoy) $1.00 $0.51 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-battle-scarred) [Sedoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sedoy) $1.00 $0.40 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) [Sedoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sedoy) $1.00 $0.96 0.96x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.00 | 75.06% | 41 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.00 | 80.81% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.00 | 77.98% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.00 | 76.73% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.00 | 77.58% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.00 | 80.19% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.00 | 74.47% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.00 | 80.69% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.00 | 77.21% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.00 | 81.55% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.00 | 78.22% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.00 | 83.78% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.00 | 76.48% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.00 | 79.91% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.00 | 81.47% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.00 | 76.81% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.00 | 78.27% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.00 | 82.79% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.00 | 80.41% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.00 | 79.22% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.00 | 78.66% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.00 | 80.21% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 78.08% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 78.97% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.00 | 79.49% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.00 | 72.53% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.00 | 77.79% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 77.99% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.00 | 78.29% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1.00 | 83.10% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.0% classified 0.3% #8847ff 11.2% Mythical 5.2% Restricted 6.4% milspec 18.4% mil spec 5.2% Rare 12.3% restricted 4.7% violet 7.9% #4b69ff 15.1% Mil Spec 2.3% blue 3.5% Mil Spec Grade 4.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.06 on average: an expected loss of $24.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt