---
title: "Tamagotchi case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tamagotchi ($0.95) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 42 items with odds, observed 108.43% over 8,979 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Tamagotchi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Tamagotchi

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi?window=all)

Price · $0.95

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $0.87 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 108.43% · 8,979 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 113.01% ±7.60 975 openings

7 days · 109.83% ±2.68 7,497 openings

30 days · 108.43% ±2.44 8,979 openings

since tracking started · 108.43% ±2.44 8,979 openings

91.5% 106.5% 121.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.98% – 110.87%, 8,979 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi?window=24h) | 975 | 113.01% ±7.60 | +5.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi?window=7d) | 7,497 | 109.83% ±2.68 | +13.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi) | 8,979 | 108.43% ±2.44 | +13.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/tamagotchi?window=all) | 8,979 | 108.43% ±2.44 | +13.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,983 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 885 | $14.06 | 1.8% | 1 | 10.2 | 0.10× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.18 | 0.2% | 16 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $9.99 | 0.2% | 17 | 1.4 | 11.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 231 | $8.20 | 4.1% | 25 | 38.9 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 247 | $7.83 | 3.6% | 58 | 36.4 | 1.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 308 | $7.47 | 2.8% | 22 | 29.2 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $5.03 | 4.8% | 69 | 74.2 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 174 | $4.31 | 2.8% | 96 | 51.6 | 1.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $3.31 | 5.1% | 131 | 122.0 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $2.34 | 4.9% | 146 | 165.1 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $2.07 | 4.1% | 198 | 154.9 | 1.28× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $1.67 | 2.8% | 236 | 132.2 | 1.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $1.58 | 4.1% | 261 | 203.7 | 1.28× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $1.49 | 2.9% | 232 | 150.6 | 1.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $1.34 | 2.6% | 192 | 153.0 | 1.26× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $1.29 | 2.4% | 161 | 148.2 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $1.25 | 2.1% | 168 | 132.2 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $1.25 | 2.0% | 200 | 123.2 | 1.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $1.25 | 1.5% | 184 | 97.2 | 1.89× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $1.23 | 2.2% | 167 | 141.2 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $1.22 | 1.8% | 154 | 112.9 | 1.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $1.04 | 1.4% | 163 | 109.2 | 1.49× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $1.01 | 2.1% | 166 | 163.6 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.96 | 2.7% | 295 | 224.1 | 1.32× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.87 | 3.0% | 255 | 275.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $0.75 | 2.0% | 350 | 213.9 | 1.64× |
| [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.71 | 2.4% | 270 | 265.1 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.63 | 2.4% | 388 | 299.8 | 1.29× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.63 | 2.1% | 366 | 266.0 | 1.38× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.59 | 2.2% | 289 | 290.0 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Re.built (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $0.58 | 1.7% | 331 | 226.3 | 1.46× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $0.54 | 1.7% | 309 | 251.3 | 1.23× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.53 | 1.5% | 330 | 229.2 | 1.44× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.52 | 1.6% | 299 | 244.1 | 1.23× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $0.50 | 1.8% | 385 | 278.0 | 1.38× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.46 | 1.6% | 500 | 266.2 | 1.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.43 | 1.8% | 403 | 330.9 | 1.22× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.41 | 2.2% | 620 | 416.9 | 1.49× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.34 | 2.1% | 519 | 487.7 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.23 | 1.7% | 0 | 565.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.19 | 1.6% | 11 | 665.3 | 0.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 1.5% | 0 | 836.0 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/tamagotchi`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=tamagotchi)

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) [☻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%98%BB) $0.95 $0.52 0.55x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) [☻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%98%BB) $0.95 $0.35 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) [☻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%98%BB) $0.95 $1.28 1.35x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) [felpsss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/felpsss) $0.95 $0.52 0.55x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) [felpsss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/felpsss) $0.95 $0.51 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) [felpsss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/felpsss) $0.95 $0.35 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) [felpsss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/felpsss) $0.95 $0.54 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-minimal-wear) [felpsss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/felpsss) $0.95 $0.35 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [z3roarx](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/z3roarx) $0.95 $2.06 2.17x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[P250 | Re.built (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-factory-new) [☻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%98%BB) $0.95 $0.57 0.60x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.95 | 92.09% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.95 | 92.03% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $0.95 | 92.01% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $0.95 | 92.04% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $0.95 | 92.08% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.95 | 92.10% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.95 | 92.00% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% Legendary 1.3% mil spec 8.0% restricted 3.9% #8847ff 4.8% milspec 7.0% violet 7.2% Restricted 1.7% blue 15.1% blueLight 1.7% pink 1.5% #d32ce6 1.4% #4b69ff 14.9% #5e98d9 8.1% uncommon 3.2% Rare 10.9% Uncommon 9.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt