--- title: "The Thief case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Thief ($4.35) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.75% over 733 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief rendered: 2026-11-12T13:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [The Thief](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief) # [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · The Thief A case on GGDROP, first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief?window=all) Price · $4.35 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.75% · 733 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 733 openings · below min 7 days · 733 openings · below min 30 days · 733 openings · below min since tracking started · 733 openings · below min 80.0% 89.8% 99.5% **Small sample.** 733 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief?window=24h) | 733 | 89.75% ±8.92 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief?window=7d) | 733 | 89.75% ±8.92 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief) | 733 | 89.75% ±8.92 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/the-thief?window=all) | 733 | 89.75% ±8.92 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** GGDROP publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=the-thief) [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) [Urigel](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Urigel) $4.35 $1.77 0.41x 2026-11-12 13:03 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [EdoTensei no Jutsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/EdoTensei%20no%20Jutsu) $4.35 $6.21 1.43x 2026-11-12 13:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [EdoTensei no Jutsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/EdoTensei%20no%20Jutsu) $4.35 $1.34 0.31x 2026-11-12 13:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) [,-](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%2C-) $4.35 $1.77 0.41x 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) [БАРЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%91%D0%90%D0%A0%D0%AF) $4.35 $7.39 1.70x 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [БАРЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%91%D0%90%D0%A0%D0%AF) $4.35 $1.34 0.31x 2026-11-12 13:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) [lolittakissa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lolittakissa) $4.35 $1.01 0.23x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) [lolittakissa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lolittakissa) $4.35 $3.86 0.89x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC [P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) [lolittakissa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lolittakissa) $4.35 $4.95 1.14x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [lolittakissa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lolittakissa) $4.35 $1.34 0.31x 2026-11-12 12:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.75 on average: an expected loss of $10.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt