--- title: "Thunderworld case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Thunderworld ($1.55) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 28 items with odds, observed 96.08% over 1,289 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Thunderworld](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld) # [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Thunderworld A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld?window=all) Price · $1.55 Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $1.43 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.08% · 1,289 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.72% ±12.95 168 openings 7 days · 96.95% ±5.12 1,117 openings 30 days · 96.08% ±4.76 1,289 openings since tracking started · 96.08% ±4.76 1,289 openings 76.0% 89.8% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld?window=24h) | 168 | 89.72% ±13.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld?window=7d) | 1,117 | 96.95% ±5.12 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld) | 1,289 | 96.08% ±4.76 | +1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/thunderworld?window=all) | 1,289 | 96.08% ±4.76 | +1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,289 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $13.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | ['The Doctor' Romanov \| Sabre agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-doctor-romanov-sabre) | 1 in 5,556 | $10.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $10.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $9.45 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $8.72 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 294 | $7.18 | 1.7% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $7.12 | 0.1% | 3 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 336 | $5.93 | 1.2% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $5.79 | 3.3% | 10 | 10.6 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $5.56 | 6.5% | 9 | 21.4 | 0.42× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $4.70 | 5.5% | 8 | 21.6 | 0.37× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $4.35 | 4.3% | 29 | 18.1 | 1.60× | | [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $3.63 | 5.0% | 32 | 25.5 | 1.25× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $3.32 | 7.2% | 32 | 39.9 | 0.80× | | [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 37 | $2.79 | 5.3% | 42 | 35.0 | 1.20× | | [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| DRYDEN, Feel The Power music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-dryden-feel-the-power) | 1 in 32 | $2.64 | 5.8% | 51 | 40.6 | 1.26× | | [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.95 | 5.2% | 64 | 49.3 | 1.30× | | [MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.89 | 6.2% | 77 | 60.3 | 1.28× | | [Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Devil's Paintbrush music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-tim-huling-devils-paintbrush) | 1 in 21 | $1.58 | 5.3% | 72 | 62.1 | 1.16× | | [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $1.44 | 5.8% | 73 | 73.6 | 0.99× | | [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.39 | 5.0% | 63 | 66.2 | 0.95× | | [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.06 | 4.8% | 83 | 83.1 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-scavenger-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.99 | 4.2% | 106 | 77.5 | 1.37× | | [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.75 | 4.1% | 110 | 100.8 | 1.09× | | [Charm \| Dr. Brian charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-dr-brian) | 1 in 11 | $0.66 | 4.2% | 143 | 116.0 | 1.23× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.63 | 3.7% | 126 | 108.0 | 1.17× | | [Tec-9 \| Sultan (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sultan-well-worn) | 10.6% | $0.41 | 3.1% | 145 | 136.9 | 1.06× | | [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-minimal-wear) | 10.3% | $0.25 | 1.8% | 0 | 132.9 | 0.00× | Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/thunderworld`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=thunderworld) [USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $0.77 0.50x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-battle-scarred) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $0.63 0.41x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [Charm | Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $2.78 1.79x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $1.41 0.91x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $1.41 0.91x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $1.44 0.93x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [Charm | Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $2.78 1.79x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-scavenger-well-worn) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $0.99 0.64x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $1.41 0.91x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC [Charm | Dr. Brian charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-dr-brian) [Prakint12](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Prakint12) $1.55 $0.65 0.42x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.55 | 92.10% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.55 | 92.02% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.55 | 92.09% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.55 | 92.08% | 28 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.55 | 92.09% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.55 | 92.06% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.55 | 92.07% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.55 | 92.03% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.55 | 92.04% | 28 | | 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.55 | 92.04% | 28 | | 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.55 | 92.08% | 28 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.55 | 92.09% | 28 | | 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.55 | 92.02% | 28 | | 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1.55 | 92.00% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 7 4.8% classified 2.1% red 0.0% Classified 1.4% Legendary 0.3% uncommon 4.6% restricted 9.5% Mythical 2.0% milspec 24.0% #8847ff 18.2% other 3.2% violet 23.9% Restricted 6.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt