---
title: "1% Upgrade case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "1% Upgrade ($11.99) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.09% from 35 items with odds, observed 94.68% over 1,520 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [1% Upgrade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · 1% Upgrade

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop?window=all)

Price · $11.99

Advertised RTP · 92.09% · EV $11.04 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.68% · 1,520 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.74% ±13.74 179 openings

7 days · 93.69% ±5.04 1,295 openings

30 days · 94.68% ±4.65 1,520 openings

since tracking started · 94.68% ±4.65 1,520 openings

81.5% 95.8% 110.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop?window=24h) | 179 | 95.74% ±13.7 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop?window=7d) | 1,295 | 93.69% ±5.04 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop) | 1,520 | 94.68% ±4.65 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/upgrade-ggdrop?window=all) | 1,520 | 94.68% ±4.65 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,520 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,136 | $67.55 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 273 | $58.34 | 1.9% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 282 | $56.92 | 1.8% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 217 | $54.87 | 2.3% | 11 | 7.0 | 1.57× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $51.81 | 2.6% | 25 | 8.5 | 2.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-battle-scarred) | 1 in 173 | $49.32 | 2.6% | 15 | 8.8 | 1.71× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $47.09 | 2.1% | 11 | 7.6 | 1.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $40.47 | 3.2% | 9 | 13.1 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $39.28 | 4.0% | 17 | 16.9 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $36.49 | 4.0% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $32.54 | 5.2% | 12 | 26.8 | 0.45× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $29.58 | 4.0% | 31 | 22.4 | 1.38× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $24.87 | 4.4% | 29 | 29.9 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $21.24 | 4.3% | 37 | 34.0 | 1.09× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $18.49 | 4.6% | 39 | 41.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $16.06 | 4.4% | 41 | 46.4 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $13.53 | 3.8% | 38 | 47.0 | 0.81× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $11.79 | 3.7% | 40 | 52.5 | 0.76× |
| [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $11.68 | 3.4% | 48 | 48.9 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $11.56 | 3.3% | 47 | 47.7 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $11.10 | 2.5% | 22 | 38.1 | 0.58× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $11.09 | 2.1% | 48 | 31.5 | 1.52× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $9.22 | 2.1% | 37 | 37.8 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $9.14 | 2.6% | 46 | 47.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $8.27 | 2.6% | 54 | 52.6 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $7.70 | 3.0% | 80 | 64.8 | 1.23× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $7.33 | 2.5% | 69 | 57.7 | 1.20× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $5.86 | 2.6% | 74 | 73.5 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $4.75 | 2.1% | 82 | 73.9 | 1.11× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $4.41 | 2.3% | 70 | 85.7 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.12 | 2.4% | 94 | 99.5 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.03 | 2.1% | 99 | 87.3 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $3.62 | 1.8% | 86 | 81.1 | 1.06× |
| [Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noon music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-feed-me-high-noon) | 1 in 17 | $3.24 | 1.8% | 76 | 91.4 | 0.83× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $2.44 | 1.6% | 99 | 107.5 | 0.92× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/upgrade-ggdrop`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=upgrade-ggdrop)

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-well-worn) [RAVER.](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/RAVER.) $11.99 $2.46 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) [Clicky](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Clicky) $11.99 $16.43 1.37x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $4.40 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $11.76 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-well-worn) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $2.47 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $13.52 1.13x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $4.40 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $3.60 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $4.04 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) [༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E0%BC%BA%20%F0%9D%92%AE%F0%9D%92%BD%F0%9D%92%B6%F0%9D%92%B9%E2%84%B4%F0%9D%93%8C%20%E0%BC%BB) $11.99 $4.03 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $11.99 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $11.99 | 92.10% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $11.99 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $11.99 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $11.99 | 92.05% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $11.99 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $11.99 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $11.99 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $11.99 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $11.99 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $11.99 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $11.99 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $11.99 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.99 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $11.99 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.99 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $11.99 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $11.99 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $11.99 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.8% red 5.3% classified 23.7% rare 0.6% mil spec 3.9% restricted 7.9% pink 16.8% #87c7ff 3.2% #d32ce6 2.1% #8847ff 8.3% #4b69ff 4.3% uncommon 3.8% industrial 5.3% blue 6.0% violet 7.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.09 on average: an expected loss of $7.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt