---
title: "Vandal case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Vandal ($1.79) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 28 items with odds, observed 93.33% over 5,101 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Vandal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Vandal

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal?window=all)

Price · $1.79

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $1.65 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.33% · 5,101 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.31% ±7.41 663 openings

7 days · 93.37% ±2.92 4,359 openings

30 days · 93.33% ±2.69 5,101 openings

since tracking started · 93.33% ±2.69 5,101 openings

86.5% 94.5% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal?window=24h) | 663 | 94.31% ±7.41 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal?window=7d) | 4,359 | 93.37% ±2.92 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal) | 5,101 | 93.33% ±2.69 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vandal?window=all) | 5,101 | 93.33% ±2.69 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,101 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $13.98 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $12.43 | 0.1% | 19 | 1.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $9.05 | 0.3% | 28 | 3.1 | 9.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $7.31 | 4.4% | 50 | 50.3 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $6.93 | 4.7% | 45 | 56.7 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $6.02 | 4.5% | 48 | 62.5 | 0.77× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $5.84 | 5.2% | 74 | 74.9 | 0.99× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $5.19 | 5.8% | 66 | 94.2 | 0.70× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $4.42 | 4.7% | 78 | 88.4 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $4.02 | 5.9% | 109 | 124.2 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $4.02 | 5.4% | 88 | 113.0 | 0.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $3.65 | 5.8% | 160 | 133.6 | 1.20× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $2.64 | 5.0% | 201 | 158.6 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $2.16 | 3.9% | 186 | 151.4 | 1.23× |
| [FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-faulty-wiring-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $1.67 | 4.9% | 266 | 245.2 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $1.65 | 5.6% | 273 | 285.5 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.64 | 5.0% | 236 | 254.2 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.25 | 3.8% | 235 | 252.8 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.23 | 2.8% | 236 | 189.1 | 1.25× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.22 | 3.4% | 203 | 232.6 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.19 | 4.1% | 271 | 288.3 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.78 | 2.0% | 249 | 217.7 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.75 | 2.4% | 276 | 265.7 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.68 | 2.7% | 366 | 333.0 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.50 | 2.5% | 368 | 421.4 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.49 | 1.7% | 331 | 289.8 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.40 | 1.7% | 317 | 359.7 | 0.88× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Parched (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.40 | 1.7% | 321 | 353.2 | 0.91× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/vandal`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=vandal)

[P250 | Contaminant (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-well-worn) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.79 $0.79 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) [maksss0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/maksss0n) $1.79 $0.50 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) [maksss0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/maksss0n) $1.79 $0.73 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[P250 | Contaminant (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-well-worn) [Tamara Romanova](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Tamara%20Romanova) $1.79 $0.79 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

[P90 | Module (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-module-minimal-wear) [Stmrk](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stmrk) $1.79 $1.21 0.68x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC

[FAMAS | Faulty Wiring (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-faulty-wiring-well-worn) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $1.79 $1.77 0.99x 2026-11-11 15:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-factory-new) [FoX4202 | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/FoX4202%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $1.79 $2.15 1.20x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [FoX4202 | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/FoX4202%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $1.79 $0.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Parched (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-factory-new) [FoX4202 | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/FoX4202%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $1.79 $0.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Parched (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-factory-new) [FoX4202 | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/FoX4202%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $1.79 $0.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.79 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.79 | 92.05% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.79 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.79 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.79 | 92.04% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.79 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.79 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.79 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.79 | 92.03% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.79 | 92.04% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.79 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.79 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.79 | 92.04% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.79 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.79 | 92.03% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.79 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.79 | 92.00% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 6.4% pink 13.4% #8847ff 1.1% Uncommon 2.2% Mil Spec Grade 5.6% restricted 12.5% other 4.8% violet 32.0% mil spec 5.7% blue 4.3% milspec 5.2% Common 6.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt