---
title: "Operation Vanguard Weapon Case on GGDROP: odds & RTP"
description: "Operation Vanguard Weapon Case ($2.79) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.79% from 106 items with odds, observed 71.47% over 321 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Operation Vanguard Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard?window=all)

Price · $2.79

Advertised RTP · 91.79% · EV $2.56 from 106 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.47% · 321 openings, odds method

Variance · 146.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 71.76% ±115.85 282 openings

30 days · 71.47% ±103.27 321 openings

since tracking started · 71.47% ±103.27 321 openings

-0.5% 199.5% 399.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard?window=24h) | 57 | 65.55% ±333.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard?window=7d) | 282 | 71.76% ±115.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard) | 321 | 71.47% ±103.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/vanguard?window=all) | 321 | 71.47% ±103.3 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 106 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 321 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $2,740 | 16.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $185 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $109 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $94.67 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $89.58 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $89.26 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $88.89 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $46.78 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $42.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-battle-scarred-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $34.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $33.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $31.95 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $30.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $30.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $30.52 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $29.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $29.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $26.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $26.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $25.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $24.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $23.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $23.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $23.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $21.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $18.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $18.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $17.36 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $14.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $14.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $13.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $13.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $13.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $12.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $12.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $12.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $11.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $11.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $10.74 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $10.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $10.48 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $10.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $9.73 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $9.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $9.50 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $9.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $9.07 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-highwayman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $8.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-well-worn) | 1 in 478 | $8.42 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $8.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $8.27 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $8.20 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $8.20 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 376 | $8.07 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $8.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $7.90 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $7.89 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $7.48 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $7.02 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $6.94 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $5.92 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $5.58 | 1.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $5.31 | 2.8% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $5.16 | 3.0% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $4.50 | 2.3% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $3.80 | 2.3% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-highwayman-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $3.70 | 2.4% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.33× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $3.68 | 2.7% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-highwayman-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $3.60 | 2.3% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $3.50 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $3.44 | 1.4% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $3.29 | 1.4% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $3.28 | 1.6% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $3.22 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $3.11 | 1.2% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $2.96 | 1.5% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $2.72 | 1.7% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $2.69 | 1.6% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $2.35 | 1.6% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.08× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $2.33 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $2.17 | 1.4% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $2.07 | 2.2% | 4 | 8.6 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $2.00 | 1.3% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $1.95 | 1.5% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [G3SG1 \| Murky (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $1.93 | 1.3% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Murky (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-murky-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $1.86 | 1.1% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $1.63 | 1.0% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $1.62 | 1.2% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Murky (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-murky-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.60 | 1.2% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $1.51 | 1.4% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.66× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.50 | 0.7% | 9 | 3.8 | 2.35× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $1.49 | 1.0% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $1.45 | 0.9% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $1.44 | 0.9% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.57× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $1.39 | 1.1% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Dart (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $1.37 | 1.4% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Murky (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-murky-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $1.32 | 1.1% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.19 | 1.4% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Delusion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-delusion-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.08 | 1.5% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.97 | 1.6% | 21 | 13.3 | 1.58× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.88 | 1.5% | 9 | 13.9 | 0.65× |
| [G3SG1 \| Murky (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.77 | 1.3% | 20 | 13.8 | 1.44× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.70 | 1.2% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.67 | 1.2% | 16 | 15.3 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.63 | 1.2% | 17 | 16.1 | 1.06× |
| [G3SG1 \| Murky (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.62 | 1.3% | 18 | 17.3 | 1.04× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/vanguard`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=vanguard)

[MP9 | Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-field-tested) [deniz](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/deniz) $2.79 $0.63 0.23x 2026-11-11 10:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-field-tested) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $1.16 0.42x 2026-11-11 02:22 UTC

[UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-field-tested) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $0.67 0.24x 2026-11-11 02:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-dart-well-worn) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $1.64 0.59x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-battle-scarred) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $3.79 1.36x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[MAG-7 | Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $0.97 0.35x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[G3SG1 | Murky (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-murky-minimal-wear) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $0.78 0.28x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-battle-scarred) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $3.79 1.36x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[MP9 | Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-field-tested) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $0.63 0.23x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-battle-scarred) [Kupātss](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kup%C4%81tss) $2.79 $1.52 0.54x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.79 | 91.79% | 106 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.79 | 91.85% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.79 | 91.87% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.79 | 91.86% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.79 | 91.79% | 106 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.79 | 91.72% | 106 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.79 | 91.60% | 106 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.79 | 91.56% | 106 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.79 | 91.88% | 106 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.79 | 91.92% | 106 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.79 | 91.71% | 106 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.79 | 91.78% | 106 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.79 | 91.69% | 106 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.79 | 91.89% | 106 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.79 | 91.61% | 106 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $2.79 | 91.58% | 106 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.79 | 91.85% | 106 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.79 | 91.69% | 106 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.79 | 91.77% | 106 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $2.79 | 91.83% | 106 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.79 | 91.82% | 106 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.79 | 91.79% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.79 | 91.39% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.79 | 91.26% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.79 | 91.81% | 106 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.79 | 91.28% | 106 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.79 | 91.78% | 106 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.79 | 91.82% | 106 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.79 | 91.86% | 106 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $2.79 | 91.31% | 106 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.5% covert 0.1% Covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% restricted 14.7% Legendary 0.0% other 0.0% Classified 0.0% classified 0.8% Mil Spec Grade 18.9% Heavy 0.0% Mil Spec 1.5% pink 0.0% Mythical 3.2% violet 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% #8847ff 1.7% Rare 1.3% milspec 12.9% mil spec 27.5% #4b69ff 3.8% #4B69FF 6.4% Restricted 2.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.79 on average: an expected loss of $8.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt