---
title: "Operation Wildfire Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation Wildfire Case ($4.79) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 125 items with odds, observed 90.84% over 503 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Operation Wildfire Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Operation Wildfire Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire?window=all)

Price · $4.79

Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $4.31 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.84% · 503 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88 openings · below min

7 days · 89.41% ±12.12 439 openings

30 days · 90.84% ±11.32 503 openings

since tracking started · 90.84% ±11.32 503 openings

65.0% 93.0% 121.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire?window=24h) | 88 | 93.11% ±27.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire?window=7d) | 439 | 89.41% ±12.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire) | 503 | 90.84% ±11.3 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/wildfire?window=all) | 503 | 90.84% ±11.3 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 125 items · odds summed to 0.9927, rescaled · observed counts over 503 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $114 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $111 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $98.58 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $94.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $92.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $83.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $83.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $79.64 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $77.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $74.21 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $68.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $67.52 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $66.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $64.84 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $57.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $56.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $56.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $56.00 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $50.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $47.97 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $46.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $45.48 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $43.99 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,326 | $43.46 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $39.70 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $39.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 1,471 | $35.32 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 1,316 | $34.05 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $33.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $33.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $31.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,471 | $30.26 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $29.48 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $28.59 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $28.57 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,020 | $28.41 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $28.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 847 | $27.59 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 671 | $26.10 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 1,389 | $26.01 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 389 | $23.32 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.30× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $22.37 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 280 | $19.63 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $19.26 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 226 | $18.76 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $16.10 | 2.0% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.26× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) | 1 in 165 | $14.08 | 2.0% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $12.70 | 1.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $12.29 | 1.8% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $12.01 | 1.5% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.89× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $11.56 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 216 | $11.39 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.43× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 209 | $11.10 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $10.70 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $10.08 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.36× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 238 | $9.94 | 1.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.88× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 1 in 172 | $9.92 | 1.4% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.70× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $9.83 | 1.4% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $9.30 | 1.4% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 1 in 177 | $8.96 | 1.2% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $8.90 | 2.0% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 92 | $7.38 | 1.9% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $7.10 | 2.1% | 15 | 6.5 | 2.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $6.80 | 2.0% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $6.45 | 2.5% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $6.40 | 1.6% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.66× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $6.09 | 1.6% | 10 | 5.5 | 1.80× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $5.84 | 1.5% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $5.80 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $5.79 | 1.5% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $5.49 | 1.6% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $5.42 | 1.5% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $5.21 | 1.7% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $5.05 | 2.0% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $4.46 | 1.9% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $3.93 | 2.0% | 11 | 11.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $3.67 | 2.2% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $3.45 | 2.4% | 20 | 14.9 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $3.21 | 1.9% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $2.94 | 1.5% | 7 | 11.1 | 0.63× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $2.93 | 1.3% | 6 | 9.8 | 0.61× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $2.77 | 1.2% | 6 | 9.7 | 0.62× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $2.73 | 1.0% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.38× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $2.72 | 0.7% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $2.64 | 0.7% | 1 | 5.9 | 0.17× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $2.63 | 0.6% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $2.31 | 0.6% | 11 | 5.9 | 1.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $2.28 | 0.8% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $2.28 | 0.8% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.26× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $2.14 | 0.7% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $2.11 | 0.8% | 4 | 8.7 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $2.09 | 0.5% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.42× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $1.94 | 0.6% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $1.91 | 0.5% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $1.91 | 0.6% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $1.90 | 0.5% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.48× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $1.81 | 0.6% | 13 | 7.2 | 1.81× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $1.74 | 0.5% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.57× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $1.72 | 0.6% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $1.65 | 0.7% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.32 | 0.6% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.09× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $1.22 | 0.6% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $1.16 | 0.7% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.05 | 0.7% | 17 | 14.9 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $0.89 | 0.3% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $0.86 | 0.3% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.90× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.85 | 0.3% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.52× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $0.84 | 0.2% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.21× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $0.84 | 0.2% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $0.82 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $0.80 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 1 in 245 | $0.80 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.78 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 178 | $0.77 | 0.1% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $0.76 | 0.1% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $0.63 | 0.1% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.62× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 117 | $0.58 | 0.1% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $0.57 | 0.1% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.33× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $0.53 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-well-worn) | 1 in 169 | $0.52 | 0.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 146 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.37× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.49 | 0.1% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.49 | 0.1% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.94× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/wildfire`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=wildfire)

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) [я селфмейд](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D1%8F%20%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%84%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%B4) $4.79 $3.67 0.77x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC

[MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) [я селфмейд](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D1%8F%20%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%84%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%B4) $4.79 $1.91 0.40x 2026-11-11 08:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-well-worn) [я селфмейд](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D1%8F%20%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%84%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%B4) $4.79 $5.05 1.05x 2026-11-11 08:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.79 $6.32 1.32x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.79 $3.21 0.67x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-lapis-gator-field-tested) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.79 $1.05 0.22x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-well-worn) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.79 $0.76 0.16x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.79 $3.48 0.73x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-triumvirate-well-worn) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.79 $5.84 1.22x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-minimal-wear) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.79 $1.79 0.37x 2026-11-11 03:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $4.79 | 89.91% | 125 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.79 | 90.35% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $4.79 | 90.96% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.79 | 90.75% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $4.79 | 90.88% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.79 | 90.34% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $4.79 | 90.73% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $4.79 | 90.46% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $4.79 | 91.13% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.79 | 89.73% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $4.79 | 90.13% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $4.79 | 90.18% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $4.79 | 90.05% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.79 | 90.47% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.79 | 91.20% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $4.79 | 90.58% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $4.79 | 89.51% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $4.79 | 90.49% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $4.79 | 90.36% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $4.79 | 90.07% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.79 | 90.58% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.79 | 90.11% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.79 | 89.59% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.79 | 90.89% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $4.79 | 90.18% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $4.79 | 90.05% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $4.79 | 90.70% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.79 | 89.76% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.79 | 90.35% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $4.79 | 89.89% | 125 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 1.2% classified 5.0% covert 0.2% covert knife 0.1% Classified 0.5% Legendary 0.4% restricted 25.9% red 0.1% Covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% #d32ce6 0.1% milspec 17.6% Restricted 4.1% Mil Spec Grade 3.2% Rare 1.8% mil spec 12.2% violet 6.2% #8847FF 3.5% #4b69ff 11.5% #8847ff 3.3% Mil Spec 2.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt