---
title: "Your Favorite Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Your Favorite Case ($0.65) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 42 items with odds, observed 127.66% over 4,766 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Your Favorite Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Your Favorite Case

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc?window=all)

Price · $0.65

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $0.60 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 127.66% · 4,766 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 127.29% ±5.81 1,001 openings

7 days · 127.96% ±2.89 3,969 openings

30 days · 127.66% ±2.64 4,766 openings

since tracking started · 127.66% ±2.64 4,766 openings

91.5% 112.5% 133.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (125.02% – 130.30%, 4,766 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc?window=24h) | 1,001 | 127.29% ±5.81 | +11.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc?window=7d) | 3,969 | 127.96% ±2.89 | +24.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc) | 4,766 | 127.66% ±2.64 | +26.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/yfc?window=all) | 4,766 | 127.66% ±2.64 | +26.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,766 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $4.03 | 3.0% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 302 | $3.44 | 1.9% | 35 | 15.8 | 2.22× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 775 | $3.13 | 0.7% | 36 | 6.1 | 5.86× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 220 | $3.03 | 2.3% | 31 | 21.7 | 1.43× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 158 | $2.78 | 2.9% | 34 | 30.1 | 1.13× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $2.49 | 3.6% | 44 | 41.2 | 1.07× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 187 | $2.25 | 2.0% | 45 | 25.5 | 1.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 153 | $2.09 | 2.3% | 51 | 31.1 | 1.64× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $2.09 | 2.6% | 53 | 36.1 | 1.47× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $1.88 | 2.6% | 62 | 39.8 | 1.56× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $1.86 | 3.0% | 68 | 46.3 | 1.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $1.70 | 2.6% | 66 | 43.2 | 1.53× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $1.51 | 2.9% | 90 | 54.0 | 1.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $1.34 | 2.9% | 78 | 62.0 | 1.26× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $1.32 | 3.5% | 108 | 76.3 | 1.42× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $1.16 | 3.2% | 137 | 79.4 | 1.73× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $1.08 | 3.6% | 146 | 94.4 | 1.55× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $1.03 | 2.7% | 134 | 75.0 | 1.79× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.76 | 2.9% | 167 | 108.2 | 1.54× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.75 | 2.7% | 185 | 104.0 | 1.78× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-elite-1-6-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.68 | 2.6% | 154 | 107.5 | 1.43× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.66 | 3.0% | 178 | 130.4 | 1.37× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.66 | 2.9% | 159 | 126.4 | 1.26× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Vendetta (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $0.64 | 1.5% | 149 | 66.2 | 2.25× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $0.59 | 1.7% | 112 | 81.6 | 1.37× |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.59 | 1.7% | 160 | 81.4 | 1.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $0.59 | 1.7% | 129 | 82.0 | 1.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $0.53 | 1.3% | 160 | 72.3 | 2.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.53 | 1.6% | 142 | 86.8 | 1.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $0.52 | 1.6% | 148 | 86.1 | 1.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-elite-1-6-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.50 | 1.7% | 156 | 96.1 | 1.62× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $0.47 | 2.0% | 189 | 120.1 | 1.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.44 | 2.1% | 191 | 134.2 | 1.42× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.43 | 2.4% | 247 | 159.2 | 1.55× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.38 | 2.5% | 282 | 184.7 | 1.53× |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.37 | 2.7% | 282 | 206.8 | 1.36× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.32 | 2.5% | 329 | 226.9 | 1.45× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.23 | 2.3% | 0 | 288.6 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-azure-glyph-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.19 | 2.1% | 8 | 311.2 | 0.03× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.18 | 2.4% | 0 | 376.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 2.1% | 0 | 397.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 1.6% | 0 | 333.0 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/yfc`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=yfc)

[PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.75 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.44 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.54 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-elite-1-6-battle-scarred) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.50 0.77x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.51 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.51 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.36 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.36 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.54 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-battle-scarred) [POTYZNO](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/POTYZNO) $0.65 $0.33 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $0.65 | 92.08% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.65 | 92.01% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.65 | 92.03% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $0.65 | 92.01% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $0.65 | 92.04% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $0.65 | 92.03% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $0.65 | 92.05% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $0.65 | 92.04% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.65 | 92.05% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $0.65 | 92.08% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.65 | 92.04% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $0.65 | 92.00% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.3% 2 6.5% pink 1.5% restricted 14.7% #8847ff 3.8% violet 10.7% Classified 0.9% blue 1.0% Legendary 1.1% mil spec 11.5% Restricted 3.8% milspec 14.1% #4b69ff 1.7% Rare 5.6% industrial 13.9% #5e98d9 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt