---
title: "Ascent Collection case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Ascent Collection ($2.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.00% from 140 items with odds, observed 86.52% over 1,175 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Ascent Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Ascent Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 88.00% · EV $1.76 from 140 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.52% · 1,175 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.93% ±22.46 144 openings

7 days · 86.67% ±8.55 1,003 openings

30 days · 86.52% ±7.90 1,175 openings

since tracking started · 86.52% ±7.90 1,175 openings

73.0% 96.0% 119.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection?window=24h) | 144 | 95.93% ±22.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection?window=7d) | 1,003 | 86.67% ±8.55 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection) | 1,175 | 86.52% ±7.90 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/ascent-collection?window=all) | 1,175 | 86.52% ±7.90 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,175 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $34.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $15.78 | 8.9% | 10 | 11.7 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $11.94 | 8.9% | 16 | 15.5 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $8.77 | 8.9% | 29 | 21.1 | 1.38× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $5.95 | 8.9% | 32 | 31.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $4.61 | 8.9% | 28 | 40.0 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.51 | 8.9% | 42 | 40.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.49 | 8.9% | 43 | 52.9 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $3.43 | 8.9% | 49 | 53.8 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $3.27 | 8.9% | 51 | 56.5 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.15 | 8.9% | 62 | 58.6 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $2.84 | 8.9% | 65 | 65.0 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $1.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $1.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $1.04 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $1.03 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $1.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $0.84 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $0.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 2,857 | $0.71 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,703 | $0.65 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $0.61 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $0.53 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $0.53 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,083 | $0.51 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $0.45 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-factory-new) | 1 in 1,786 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 1,316 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 1,020 | $0.25 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-well-worn) | 1 in 980 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-well-worn) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.61× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-well-worn) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.61× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-field-tested) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 935 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.61× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-factory-new) | 1 in 943 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.80× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-battle-scarred) | 1 in 901 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-well-worn) | 1 in 901 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.30× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 901 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.30× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-battle-scarred) | 1 in 901 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 901 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 741 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.52× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 735 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 613 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 490 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 7 | 2.4 | 2.92× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-field-tested) | 1 in 410 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-well-worn) | 1 in 410 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 408 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 410 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 369 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-minimal-wear) | 1 in 327 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 328 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 328 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 327 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 328 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-factory-new) | 1 in 328 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 287 | $0.07 | 0.0% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 246 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 246 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 246 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.70× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.70× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 3 | 7.2 | 0.42× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 3 | 7.2 | 0.42× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 2 | 7.2 | 0.28× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.63× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.36× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 16 | 9.6 | 1.67× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.63× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 16 | 9.6 | 1.67× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 9.6 | 0.52× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.05× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 9.6 | 0.52× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 18 | 9.6 | 1.88× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.05× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 2 | 9.6 | 0.21× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.36× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.63× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 16 | 9.6 | 1.67× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 16 | 9.6 | 1.67× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.84× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 11 | 9.6 | 1.15× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 16 | 9.6 | 1.67× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 13 | 9.6 | 1.36× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/ascent-collection`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=ascent-collection)

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [QUAPI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/QUAPI) $2.00 $0.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.00 $2.84 1.42x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.00 $8.77 4.39x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.00 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.00 $3.27 1.64x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.00 $0.03 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-well-worn) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.00 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) [TechN9ne](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TechN9ne) $2.00 $3.43 1.72x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) [Fughu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Fughu) $2.00 $4.51 2.26x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-well-worn) [Shamanas](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Shamanas) $2.00 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $2.00 | 87.99% | 140 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.0% Mythical 14.9% classified 6.1% rare 3.4% Classified 3.5% violet 10.1% #4b69ff 0.1% Rare 0.1% uncommon 0.2% blue 1.0% restricted 0.1% Uncommon 2.5% #5e98d9 9.9% milspec 0.6% common 4.3% industrial 2.8% #b0c3d9 20.2% Common 3.0% consumer 7.4% light blue 1.0% blueLight 0.6% gray 7.3% grey 0.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.00 on average: an expected loss of $12.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt