---
title: "AWP Case case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AWP Case ($3.96) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.88% from 166 items with odds, observed 71.63% over 5,494 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [AWP Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · AWP Case

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp?window=all)

Price · $3.96

Advertised RTP · 75.88% · EV $3.00 from 166 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.63% · 5,494 openings, odds method

Variance · 25.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74.39% ±26.69 1,370 openings

7 days · 72.19% ±14.88 3,834 openings

30 days · 71.63% ±12.77 5,494 openings

since tracking started · 71.63% ±12.77 5,494 openings

47.0% 74.3% 101.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp?window=24h) | 1,370 | 74.39% ±26.7 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp?window=7d) | 3,834 | 72.19% ±14.9 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp) | 5,494 | 71.63% ±12.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/awp?window=all) | 5,494 | 71.63% ±12.8 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 166 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,519 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,357 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,411 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $538 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $461 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $302 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $273 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $223 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $194 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $173 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $168 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $163 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $159 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $158 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $157 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $122 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $119 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $112 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $111 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $109 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $102 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $98.56 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $86.23 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.91× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $82.90 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $81.42 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $79.26 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $78.79 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,545 | $72.59 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.29× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $70.33 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $69.28 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $68.80 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $66.69 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $64.50 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $64.34 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $63.77 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $58.61 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $55.00 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 3,226 | $52.46 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $52.39 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.75× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $51.13 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $49.78 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,030 | $49.75 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $49.18 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $45.18 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,778 | $45.07 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $44.23 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 2,632 | $43.62 | 0.6% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.38× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,632 | $42.25 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 2,632 | $42.11 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,564 | $40.79 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $40.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 2,439 | $40.40 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $38.42 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,222 | $35.93 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $35.25 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 2,174 | $35.15 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $34.24 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $32.86 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 1,923 | $31.55 | 0.5% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.74× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,887 | $31.19 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 1,724 | $28.15 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,695 | $27.64 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,695 | $27.52 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $26.81 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,639 | $26.75 | 0.5% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.78× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $26.57 | 0.5% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.75× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 1,613 | $26.23 | 0.5% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.46× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 1,471 | $23.88 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $23.28 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $23.18 | 0.5% | 13 | 3.9 | 3.36× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $22.77 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 1,370 | $22.21 | 0.5% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.49× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,299 | $21.08 | 0.5% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.41× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $21.02 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $21.02 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,282 | $20.91 | 0.5% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $20.56 | 0.5% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.38× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $20.47 | 0.5% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.36× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $17.45 | 0.5% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,042 | $17.07 | 0.5% | 9 | 5.3 | 1.70× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 952 | $15.44 | 0.5% | 9 | 5.8 | 1.55× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 943 | $15.43 | 0.5% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $15.39 | 0.5% | 13 | 5.8 | 2.24× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 943 | $15.27 | 0.5% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 840 | $13.66 | 0.5% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 840 | $13.66 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $13.36 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $12.11 | 0.5% | 14 | 7.4 | 1.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 699 | $11.38 | 0.5% | 12 | 7.9 | 1.52× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 690 | $11.28 | 0.5% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 694 | $11.28 | 0.5% | 13 | 7.9 | 1.64× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 690 | $11.28 | 0.5% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $10.83 | 0.5% | 10 | 8.3 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 645 | $10.53 | 0.5% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 637 | $10.40 | 0.5% | 12 | 8.7 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 637 | $10.38 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-well-worn) | 1 in 606 | $9.83 | 0.5% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $9.60 | 0.5% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 581 | $9.45 | 0.5% | 13 | 9.5 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 565 | $9.20 | 0.5% | 13 | 9.8 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 562 | $9.17 | 0.5% | 13 | 9.8 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 541 | $8.82 | 0.5% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 524 | $8.56 | 0.5% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) | 1 in 524 | $8.52 | 0.5% | 13 | 10.5 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 518 | $8.44 | 0.5% | 8 | 10.7 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 508 | $8.27 | 0.5% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 508 | $8.26 | 0.5% | 11 | 10.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 498 | $8.12 | 0.5% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.35× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $8.12 | 0.5% | 7 | 11.0 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 483 | $7.88 | 0.5% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 444 | $7.25 | 0.5% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 435 | $7.06 | 0.5% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) | 1 in 429 | $6.99 | 0.5% | 13 | 12.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 408 | $6.65 | 0.5% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $6.64 | 0.5% | 20 | 13.5 | 1.48× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 405 | $6.59 | 0.5% | 14 | 13.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 403 | $6.57 | 0.5% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 397 | $6.45 | 0.5% | 14 | 13.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 391 | $6.38 | 0.5% | 15 | 14.1 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $6.07 | 0.5% | 16 | 14.8 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 372 | $6.07 | 0.5% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 368 | $6.00 | 0.5% | 9 | 15.0 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 366 | $5.96 | 0.5% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 364 | $5.92 | 0.5% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 364 | $5.91 | 0.5% | 11 | 15.2 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 357 | $5.82 | 0.5% | 20 | 15.5 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) | 1 in 312 | $5.08 | 0.5% | 16 | 17.7 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 301 | $4.91 | 0.5% | 16 | 18.3 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 291 | $4.74 | 0.5% | 21 | 19.0 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 287 | $4.68 | 0.5% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 273 | $4.46 | 0.5% | 21 | 20.2 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 265 | $4.33 | 0.5% | 21 | 20.8 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $4.25 | 0.5% | 17 | 21.2 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 258 | $4.19 | 0.5% | 30 | 21.4 | 1.40× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 252 | $4.10 | 0.5% | 14 | 21.9 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 245 | $4.00 | 0.5% | 34 | 22.5 | 1.51× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 236 | $3.85 | 0.5% | 21 | 23.3 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) | 1 in 224 | $3.64 | 0.5% | 34 | 24.7 | 1.38× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $3.48 | 0.5% | 27 | 25.8 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $3.32 | 0.5% | 32 | 27.1 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $3.14 | 0.5% | 41 | 28.6 | 1.43× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 183 | $2.98 | 0.5% | 33 | 30.1 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $2.95 | 0.5% | 46 | 30.5 | 1.51× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $2.92 | 0.9% | 48 | 52.0 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $2.68 | 0.9% | 63 | 56.7 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $2.55 | 0.9% | 50 | 59.6 | 0.84× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $2.51 | 0.9% | 53 | 60.6 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $2.48 | 0.9% | 54 | 61.3 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $2.36 | 0.9% | 74 | 64.4 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $2.15 | 0.9% | 75 | 70.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $1.96 | 0.9% | 81 | 77.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $1.93 | 0.9% | 81 | 78.8 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $1.74 | 0.9% | 92 | 87.4 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $1.44 | 0.9% | 86 | 105.6 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $1.23 | 0.9% | 117 | 123.6 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $1.23 | 0.9% | 111 | 123.6 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $1.22 | 0.9% | 132 | 124.6 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $1.22 | 0.9% | 110 | 124.6 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $1.19 | 0.9% | 125 | 127.8 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $1.14 | 0.9% | 127 | 133.4 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $1.07 | 0.9% | 140 | 142.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.04 | 0.9% | 140 | 146.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $1.02 | 0.9% | 112 | 149.1 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.38 | 0.9% | 430 | 400.1 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $0.23 | 0.9% | 641 | 661.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 13.1% | $0.21 | 0.9% | 721 | 724.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 13.1% | $0.21 | 0.9% | 714 | 724.0 | 0.99× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/awp`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Brozer](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Brozer) $4.50 $311 69.19x 2026-11-05 22:27 UTC

[AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) [Bigtrubl](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Bigtrubl) $3.96 $223 56.21x 2026-11-11 01:19 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=awp)

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [BEURBURRY](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/BEURBURRY) $3.96 $0.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) [hubiogr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/hubiogr) $3.96 $8.52 2.15x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-well-worn) [hubiogr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/hubiogr) $3.96 $1.22 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) [hubiogr](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/hubiogr) $3.96 $1.02 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) [McCryCZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/McCryCZ) $3.96 $1.02 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) [McCryCZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/McCryCZ) $3.96 $3.64 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [TimRosh](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TimRosh) $3.96 $0.23 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) [TechN9ne](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TechN9ne) $3.96 $1.19 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) [TechN9ne](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TechN9ne) $3.96 $1.19 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [PRECELEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PRECELEK) $3.96 $0.21 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $3.96 | 75.88% | 166 |
| 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $3.96 | 75.85% | 166 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $4.50 | 76.17% | 166 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.50 | 76.05% | 166 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $4.50 | 76.01% | 166 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $4.50 | 75.93% | 166 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $4.50 | 76.05% | 166 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $4.50 | 76.04% | 166 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $4.50 | 75.86% | 166 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $4.50 | 75.83% | 166 |
| 3 Nov, 22:52 UTC | $4.50 | 75.94% | 166 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.78 | 76.08% | 166 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $3.78 | 75.81% | 166 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% #d32ee6 0.0% classified 3.0% red 0.1% mil spec 2.1% industrial 33.8% Legendary 0.5% restricted 14.6% Classified 0.2% Restricted 0.2% #d32ce6 0.3% Mythical 2.0% #4b69ff 5.5% violet 1.4% Rare 5.8% #8847ff 5.9% Industrial Grade 0.2% blue 1.1% pink 0.4% Mil Spec Grade 1.7% milspec 8.6% Uncommon 12.0% best hit $311 (69.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.88 on average: an expected loss of $24.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt