--- title: "Capsule 2 case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Capsule 2 ($1.30) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.00% from 17 items with odds, observed 91.60% over 249 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Capsule 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2) # [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Capsule 2 A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2?window=all) Price · $1.30 Advertised RTP · 88.00% · EV $1.14 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.60% · 249 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 101.02% ±18.52 121 openings 30 days · 91.60% ±14.00 249 openings since tracking started · 91.60% ±14.00 249 openings 23.5% 76.8% 130.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2?window=24h) | 15 | 76.52% ±52.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2?window=7d) | 121 | 101.02% ±18.5 | +2.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2) | 249 | 91.60% ±14.0 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/capsule2?window=all) | 249 | 91.60% ±14.0 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 249 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Bish (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bish-holo) | 1 in 52 | $6.41 | 10.7% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× | | [Sticker \| Bash (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bash-holo) | 1 in 51 | $6.24 | 10.7% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× | | [Sticker \| Bosh (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bosh-holo) | 1 in 44 | $5.39 | 10.7% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.24× | | [Sticker \| Let's Roll-oll (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lets-roll-oll-holo) | 1 in 35 | $4.31 | 10.7% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× | | [Sticker \| Good Game sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-game) | 1 in 23 | $2.86 | 10.7% | 18 | 10.7 | 1.69× | | [Sticker \| Bomb Code sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-code) | 1 in 23 | $2.80 | 10.7% | 18 | 10.9 | 1.65× | | [Sticker \| Nice Shot sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-shot) | 1 in 15 | $1.89 | 10.7% | 19 | 16.1 | 1.18× | | [Sticker \| Good Luck sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-luck) | 10.3% | $1.19 | 10.7% | 14 | 25.6 | 0.55× | | [Sticker \| Banana sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-banana) | 1 in 62 | $1.14 | 1.6% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [Sticker \| Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) | 1 in 49 | $0.89 | 1.6% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× | | [Sticker \| Welcome to the Clutch sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-welcome-to-the-clutch) | 1 in 46 | $0.84 | 1.6% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| Let's Roll-oll sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lets-roll-oll) | 1 in 45 | $0.82 | 1.6% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.44× | | [Sticker \| Metal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-metal) | 1 in 37 | $0.68 | 1.6% | 8 | 6.7 | 1.19× | | [Sticker \| Have Fun sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-have-fun) | 1 in 37 | $0.67 | 1.6% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) | 11.4% | $0.16 | 1.6% | 25 | 28.5 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Strike A Pose sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-strike-a-pose) | 20.3% | $0.09 | 1.6% | 32 | 50.6 | 0.63× | | [Sticker \| XD sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xd) | 20.3% | $0.09 | 1.6% | 65 | 50.6 | 1.28× | Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/capsule2`, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=capsule2) [Sticker | Bomb Code sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bomb-code) [AnOnImBiceps](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/AnOnImBiceps) $1.55 $2.77 1.79x 2026-11-11 08:07 UTC [Sticker | XD sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xd) [Сергей](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%D0%A1%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%B9) $1.55 $0.08 0.05x 2026-11-11 07:45 UTC [Sticker | XD sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xd) [Сергей](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%D0%A1%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%B9) $1.55 $0.08 0.05x 2026-11-11 07:45 UTC [Sticker | XD sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xd) [៲ALX7Ɐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E1%9F%B2ALX7%E2%B1%AF) $1.55 $0.08 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [Sticker | XD sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xd) [៲ALX7Ɐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E1%9F%B2ALX7%E2%B1%AF) $1.55 $0.08 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC [Sticker | Let's Roll-oll sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lets-roll-oll) [៲ALX7Ɐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E1%9F%B2ALX7%E2%B1%AF) $1.55 $0.82 0.53x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC [Sticker | Nice Shot sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nice-shot) [៲ALX7Ɐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E1%9F%B2ALX7%E2%B1%AF) $1.55 $1.89 1.22x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC [Sticker | Let's Roll-oll (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lets-roll-oll-holo) [៲ALX7Ɐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E1%9F%B2ALX7%E2%B1%AF) $1.55 $4.21 2.72x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC [Sticker | Hydro Wave sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hydro-wave) [៲ALX7Ɐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E1%9F%B2ALX7%E2%B1%AF) $1.55 $0.16 0.10x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC [Sticker | Strike A Pose sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-strike-a-pose) [៲ALX7Ɐ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E1%9F%B2ALX7%E2%B1%AF) $1.55 $0.09 0.06x 2026-11-10 23:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.30 | 88.00% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $1.30 | 88.00% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Remarkable 1.9% remarkable 4.8% violet 2.3% #4b69ff 46.6% High Grade 21.1% high 11.9% blue 11.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.00 on average: an expected loss of $12.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt