---
title: "Catposting case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Catposting ($35.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.02% from 167 items with odds, observed 90.18% over 57 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Catposting](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Catposting

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting?window=all)

Price · $35.00

Advertised RTP · 88.02% · EV $30.81 from 167 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.18% · 57 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 7 openings · below min

7 days · 54 openings · below min

30 days · 57 openings · below min

since tracking started · 57 openings · below min

6.5% 88.3% 170.0%

**Small sample.** 57 openings and 11.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting?window=24h) | 7 | 88.36% ±81.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting?window=7d) | 54 | 91.98% ±29.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting) | 57 | 90.18% ±29.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/catposting?window=all) | 57 | 90.18% ±29.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 167 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $561 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $546 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $531 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $494 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $438 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $438 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $431 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $424 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $412 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $409 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $384 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $324 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $309 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $302 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $299 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $297 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $293 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $289 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $273 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 2,632 | $267 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $266 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $263 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $260 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 2,326 | $241 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,326 | $238 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 2,326 | $235 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $232 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $229 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,174 | $221 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,083 | $212 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $207 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $202 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $194 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,887 | $192 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,852 | $191 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $178 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $176 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,695 | $173 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $164 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $158 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,493 | $152 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,471 | $150 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 1,449 | $149 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,408 | $145 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,370 | $141 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,389 | $141 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $138 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $136 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 1,282 | $131 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 1,282 | $131 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $130 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $128 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,190 | $122 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 1,190 | $121 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $121 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 1,149 | $118 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $114 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,099 | $113 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 1,099 | $112 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 1,087 | $111 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,087 | $111 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $110 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $110 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 1,042 | $107 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 1,020 | $104 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 1,010 | $103 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $102 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 990 | $102 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 990 | $101 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 980 | $100 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $98.06 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 943 | $95.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 943 | $95.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 935 | $95.68 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 870 | $88.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 855 | $86.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 855 | $86.84 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 847 | $86.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 847 | $86.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 813 | $83.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 806 | $82.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 800 | $81.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 800 | $81.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 794 | $80.80 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 781 | $80.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 775 | $79.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 758 | $77.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 746 | $76.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 741 | $75.37 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 725 | $74.03 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $72.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $72.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 694 | $70.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 685 | $69.71 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $67.94 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-factory-new) | 1 in 662 | $67.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 645 | $66.21 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 645 | $66.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 645 | $65.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 633 | $64.34 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $64.19 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-well-worn) | 1 in 621 | $63.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 617 | $62.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 602 | $61.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 602 | $61.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 599 | $61.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 595 | $60.71 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 581 | $59.34 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 546 | $55.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 543 | $55.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 521 | $53.32 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 493 | $50.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 488 | $49.67 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 474 | $48.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 474 | $48.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 472 | $48.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 469 | $47.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 469 | $47.88 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 452 | $46.23 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 439 | $44.87 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 439 | $44.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 435 | $44.46 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 433 | $44.08 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 431 | $44.05 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 431 | $43.96 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-field-tested) | 1 in 420 | $42.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 413 | $42.25 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 413 | $42.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 410 | $41.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 410 | $41.74 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $40.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 395 | $40.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 379 | $38.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 375 | $38.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-well-worn) | 1 in 364 | $37.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 352 | $36.06 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 350 | $35.73 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 350 | $35.65 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 347 | $35.50 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $35.28 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 322 | $32.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 306 | $31.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 302 | $30.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $30.68 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $29.70 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $29.64 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $29.60 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $29.47 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $28.87 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $28.77 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $28.52 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $28.48 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $26.66 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $26.16 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $25.30 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $23.20 | 2.2% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.37× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $19.52 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $18.59 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $18.20 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $17.24 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $16.96 | 2.2% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.17× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $15.75 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.61× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $14.12 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.27 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $11.92 | 2.2% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.44 | 2.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $10.73 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/catposting`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=catposting)

[StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) [kronyii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/kronyii) $35.00 $15.75 0.45x 2026-11-11 06:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) [kronyii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/kronyii) $35.00 $35.73 1.02x 2026-11-11 06:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) [kronyii](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/kronyii) $35.00 $67.65 1.93x 2026-11-11 06:33 UTC

[M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) [Phortus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Phortus) $35.00 $35.28 1.01x 2026-11-11 02:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-battle-scarred) [GLP](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/GLP) $35.00 $16.74 0.48x 2026-11-11 01:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-well-worn) [jendrula](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/jendrula) $35.00 $15.75 0.45x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) [jendrula](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/jendrula) $35.00 $29.57 0.84x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC

[P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-factory-new) [Light\_And\_Dark](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Light_And_Dark) $35.00 $18.20 0.52x 2026-11-10 12:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) [Steece](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Steece) $35.00 $53.32 1.52x 2026-11-10 12:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) [Phortus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Phortus) $35.00 $28.47 0.81x 2026-11-09 23:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $35.00 | 88.02% | 167 |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $35.00 | 87.99% | 167 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $35.00 | 88.00% | 167 |
| 9 Nov, 20:18 UTC | $35.00 | 87.99% | 167 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $35.00 | 87.99% | 167 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $35.00 | 88.00% | 167 |
| 6 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $35.00 | 88.00% | 167 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $35.00 | 87.98% | 167 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $35.00 | 88.02% | 167 |
| 4 Nov, 04:57 UTC | $35.00 | 87.98% | 167 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.2% covert knife 0.1% classified 29.9% sunny 0.0% Ancient 1.0% Legendary 11.1% #eb4b4b 0.2% red 5.6% rare 1.2% restricted 21.2% epic 0.1% Covert 0.4% violet 7.5% Classified 0.2% uncommon 2.5% pink 0.3% Restricted 6.3% Mythical 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.02 on average: an expected loss of $11.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt