--- title: "CYRILmp4 case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "CYRILmp4 ($6.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.20% over 268 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [CYRILmp4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4) # [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · CYRILmp4 A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4?window=all) Price · $6.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.20% · 268 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 202 openings · below min 30 days · 268 openings · below min since tracking started · 268 openings · below min 33.5% 79.5% 125.5% **Small sample.** 268 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4?window=24h) | 30 | 59.59% ±25.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4?window=7d) | 202 | 85.96% ±26.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4) | 268 | 95.20% ±29.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/cyrilmp4?window=all) | 268 | 95.20% ±29.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=cyrilmp4) [UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-minimal-wear) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $1.45 0.24x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $0.91 0.15x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $4.81 0.80x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $0.78 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $0.65 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $15.78 2.63x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [USP-S | Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $3.16 0.53x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $0.76 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) [the last dance](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/the%20last%20dance) $6.00 $2.66 0.44x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) [3arbi100Buzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/3arbi100Buzz) $6.00 $4.48 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.20 on average: an expected loss of $4.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt