---
title: "Dauntless case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dauntless ($36.96) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.99% from 116 items with odds, observed 116.80% over 59 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Dauntless](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Dauntless

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless?window=all)

Price · $36.96

Advertised RTP · 87.99% · EV $32.52 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 116.80% · 59 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 31 openings · below min

30 days · 59 openings · below min

since tracking started · 59 openings · below min

-0.5% 97.3% 195.0%

**Small sample.** 59 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless?window=24h) | 4 | 45.32% ±149.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless?window=7d) | 31 | 62.15% ±63.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless) | 59 | 116.80% ±51.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dauntless?window=all) | 59 | 116.80% ±51.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $1,871 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $1,320 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $1,265 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $1,265 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,192 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $975 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $936 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $928 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 3,704 | $922 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $872 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $808 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $774 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $763 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $761 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,941 | $722 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $718 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,778 | $680 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,703 | $654 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,632 | $640 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $584 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $581 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $542 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $525 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,128 | $518 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $517 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $488 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,786 | $432 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $415 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $412 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $405 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,587 | $383 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $376 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $368 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,471 | $361 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 1,449 | $350 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,370 | $330 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 1,235 | $299 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,235 | $297 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $277 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $274 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,124 | $273 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $269 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,099 | $267 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,010 | $243 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 840 | $203 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $197 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 794 | $192 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $187 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 758 | $183 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 746 | $181 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $181 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $173 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 690 | $167 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 621 | $151 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 617 | $150 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 606 | $146 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 599 | $145 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 592 | $144 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 592 | $143 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 581 | $141 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 568 | $138 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 562 | $136 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 538 | $130 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 513 | $124 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 508 | $123 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 495 | $120 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 493 | $120 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 483 | $117 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 478 | $116 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 469 | $114 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 465 | $112 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 461 | $112 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 461 | $112 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 459 | $111 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $110 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 429 | $104 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 417 | $101 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 417 | $101 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 1 in 415 | $101 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 403 | $97.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 356 | $86.31 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 1 in 356 | $86.23 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 348 | $84.25 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 345 | $83.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 342 | $82.90 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 338 | $81.69 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 329 | $79.82 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 329 | $79.71 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 327 | $79.18 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-well-worn) | 1 in 325 | $78.67 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $77.43 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 299 | $72.54 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $71.84 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 296 | $71.71 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 292 | $70.63 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 290 | $70.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 287 | $69.59 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 279 | $67.61 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 275 | $66.77 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 264 | $63.94 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 258 | $62.47 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 242 | $58.57 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 230 | $55.64 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 212 | $51.43 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $36.19 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $35.39 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $34.63 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $33.98 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $31.75 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $27.81 | 2.4% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $27.31 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $25.44 | 2.4% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $15.28 | 2.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 15.4% | $5.17 | 2.4% | 6 | 9.2 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 15.5% | $5.13 | 2.4% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 32.9% | $2.42 | 2.4% | 12 | 19.7 | 0.61× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/dauntless`, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-well-worn) [Jerik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Jerik) $44.00 $718 16.32x 2026-11-04 13:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=dauntless)

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Butt\_Fcker\_5000](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Butt_Fcker_5000) $44.00 $36.99 0.84x 2026-11-11 05:26 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) [bongomurzynkongo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/bongomurzynkongo) $95.00 $26.48 0.28x 2026-11-11 05:10 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) [shubidibap](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/shubidibap) $44.00 $2.42 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:24 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [RED JOHN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/RED%20JOHN) $44.00 $36.99 0.84x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) [Nivin⁷](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Nivin%E2%81%B7) $44.00 $97.34 2.21x 2026-11-10 12:12 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) [S\_omic](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/S_omic) $44.00 $2.42 0.06x 2026-11-09 16:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) [KCmatt](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/KCmatt) $19.00 $36.15 1.90x 2026-11-08 20:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) [Kouluttaja](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Kouluttaja) $95.00 $14.21 0.15x 2026-11-08 16:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) [Linee](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Linee) $30.00 $104 3.47x 2026-11-08 06:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [SkyWalker](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/SkyWalker) $44.00 $36.99 0.84x 2026-11-07 23:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $36.96 | 87.99% | 116 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $36.96 | 88.00% | 116 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.0% rare 0.0% covert knife 0.3% Classified 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 20.9% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% sunny 0.1% Ancient 0.1% Legendary 5.4% restricted 2.1% Mythical 0.2% red 0.2% violet 0.3% Restricted 0.7% pink 15.4% #8847ff 48.4% best hit $718 (16.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.99 on average: an expected loss of $12.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt