--- title: "Dragon case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dragon ($1.50) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 76.66% over 1,830 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Dragon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon) # [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Dragon A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon?window=all) Price · $1.50 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 76.66% · 1,830 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 215 openings · below min 7 days · 76.88% ±12.33 1,461 openings 30 days · 76.66% ±10.55 1,830 openings since tracking started · 76.66% ±10.55 1,830 openings 57.5% 90.5% 123.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon?window=24h) | 215 | 90.33% ±32.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon?window=7d) | 1,461 | 76.88% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon) | 1,830 | 76.66% ±10.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/dragon?window=all) | 1,830 | 76.66% ±10.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) [rouz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/rouz) $1.50 $103 68.95x 2026-11-08 19:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=dragon) [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-zombie-offensive-well-worn) [Chains03022](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Chains03022) $1.50 $0.73 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-wing-battle-scarred) [ANGRON](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ANGRON) $1.50 $0.12 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [M249 | Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) [Meth Damon](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Meth%20Damon) $1.50 $0.51 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) [SMOK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/SMOK) $1.50 $0.10 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-minimal-wear) [ALIENCE](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ALIENCE) $1.50 $0.83 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC [MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-focus-well-worn) [Elamshin](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Elamshin) $1.50 $0.10 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-well-worn) [LnD](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/LnD) $1.50 $1.39 0.93x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC [Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-well-worn) [Linus](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Linus) $1.50 $2.06 1.37x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-aristocrat-well-worn) [Solidgabriel](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Solidgabriel) $1.50 $2.46 1.64x 2026-11-11 10:33 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) [OPA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/OPA) $1.50 $1.50 1.00x 2026-11-11 10:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $103 (68.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.66 on average: an expected loss of $23.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt