--- title: "Falchion case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Falchion ($2.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.66% over 2,698 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion rendered: 2026-11-11T12:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Falchion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion) # [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Falchion A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion?window=all) Price · $2.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.66% · 2,698 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 433 openings · below min 7 days · 80.27% ±14.02 2,048 openings 30 days · 81.66% ±12.25 2,698 openings since tracking started · 81.66% ±12.25 2,698 openings 48.5% 82.5% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion?window=24h) | 433 | 82.38% ±33.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion?window=7d) | 2,048 | 80.27% ±14.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion) | 2,698 | 81.66% ±12.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falchion?window=all) | 2,698 | 81.66% ±12.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [✪Charrzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%9C%AACharrzz) $2.00 $147 73.35x 2026-11-04 21:31 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) [sequantur deum](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/sequantur%20deum) $2.00 $128 64.14x 2026-11-08 12:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-stained-field-tested) [L4Ci13](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/L4Ci13) $2.00 $124 61.88x 2026-11-10 18:21 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) [NovaVex02](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/NovaVex02) $2.00 $115 57.36x 2026-11-05 20:32 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Neveron](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Neveron) $2.00 $105 52.51x 2026-11-03 07:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=falchion) [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-battle-scarred) [chicaille argenter](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/chicaille%20argenter) $2.00 $0.45 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [Zoks3es](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Zoks3es) $2.00 $0.84 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) [Zoks3es](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Zoks3es) $2.00 $1.09 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [Negev | Loudmouth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-well-worn) [Zoks3es](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Zoks3es) $2.00 $1.15 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [Larskurucz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Larskurucz) $2.00 $0.79 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [Larskurucz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Larskurucz) $2.00 $1.19 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ranger-minimal-wear) [STARINA](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/STARINA) $2.00 $1.00 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [PRECELEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PRECELEK) $2.00 $0.82 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ranger-field-tested) [TheMan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TheMan) $2.00 $0.65 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) [TheMan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TheMan) $2.00 $8.65 4.33x 2026-11-11 10:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $147 (73.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.66 on average: an expected loss of $18.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt