---
title: "Falling Embers case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Falling Embers ($2.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.96% from 135 items with odds, observed 84.98% over 52 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Falling Embers](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Falling Embers

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 87.96% · EV $1.76 from 135 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.98% · 52 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 52 openings · below min

7 days · 52 openings · below min

30 days · 52 openings · below min

since tracking started · 52 openings · below min

9.0% 84.8% 160.5%

**Small sample.** 52 openings and 5.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers?window=24h) | 52 | 84.98% ±75.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers?window=7d) | 52 | 84.98% ±75.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers) | 52 | 84.98% ±75.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/falling-embers?window=all) | 52 | 84.98% ±75.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 135 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $530 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $203 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $192 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $83.24 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $83.09 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 3,125 | $80.93 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 2,778 | $73.36 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,778 | $72.47 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $72.24 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,703 | $70.14 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 990 | $25.80 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $15.39 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 546 | $14.24 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 524 | $13.69 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 493 | $12.88 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 391 | $10.20 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 352 | $9.17 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 329 | $8.59 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 316 | $8.26 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 288 | $7.51 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 242 | $6.31 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $6.16 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 229 | $6.00 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 228 | $5.96 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 227 | $5.92 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 187 | $4.87 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 166 | $4.33 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $4.28 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $4.25 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $4.20 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 153 | $4.00 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $3.62 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 138 | $3.61 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138 | $3.60 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 136 | $3.54 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 114 | $2.98 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $2.95 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $2.92 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $2.76 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $2.55 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $2.51 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $2.48 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $2.44 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $2.42 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $2.40 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $2.35 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $2.08 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $2.05 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.87× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $2.02 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $2.02 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $2.01 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $2.01 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $1.99 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $1.93 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $1.90 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $1.89 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.77× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $1.85 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $1.83 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $1.69 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 461 | $1.60 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 457 | $1.58 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 448 | $1.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 437 | $1.51 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-well-worn) | 1 in 420 | $1.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 415 | $1.44 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-field-tested) | 1 in 403 | $1.40 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $1.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 386 | $1.34 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 375 | $1.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $1.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-well-worn) | 1 in 358 | $1.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 352 | $1.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 350 | $1.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 347 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 344 | $1.19 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 1 in 344 | $1.19 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 324 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 324 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 324 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 317 | $1.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 313 | $1.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 309 | $1.07 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 306 | $1.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 297 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-well-worn) | 1 in 289 | $1.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 283 | $0.98 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 280 | $0.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 272 | $0.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 266 | $0.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 257 | $0.89 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 254 | $0.88 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 240 | $0.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 237 | $0.82 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 231 | $0.80 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $0.77 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 219 | $0.76 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 214 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 214 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 208 | $0.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $0.72 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $0.70 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 193 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 193 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 188 | $0.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $0.48 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 136 | $0.47 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 107 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 107 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.36 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $0.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.33 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $0.28 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $0.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $0.22 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $0.21 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.17 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $0.17 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $0.17 | 0.2% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.40× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.48× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.97× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.13 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/falling-embers`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=falling-embers)

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) [xcZaRaBx | #CASEHUG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xcZaRaBx%20%7C%20%23CASEHUG) $2.00 $0.47 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-battle-scarred) [xcZaRaBx | #CASEHUG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xcZaRaBx%20%7C%20%23CASEHUG) $2.00 $0.14 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [xcZaRaBx | #CASEHUG](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xcZaRaBx%20%7C%20%23CASEHUG) $2.00 $0.77 0.39x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-well-worn) [z0om](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/z0om) $2.00 $0.12 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-well-worn) [z0om](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/z0om) $2.00 $0.17 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) [ADi2137 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ADi2137%20skins.army) $2.00 $0.21 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-field-tested) [ADi2137 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ADi2137%20skins.army) $2.00 $0.48 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [Unre@L](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Unre%40L) $2.00 $1.60 0.80x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-field-tested) [gay pride 00](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/gay%20pride%2000) $2.00 $0.14 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) [gay pride 00](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/gay%20pride%2000) $2.00 $3.54 1.77x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $2.00 | 87.96% | 135 |
| 11 Nov, 03:46 UTC | $2.00 | 88.01% | 135 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.5% 3 0.3% covert 0.2% Covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% red 0.0% mil spec 15.9% Mythical 3.0% milspec 32.9% blue 6.8% Rare 6.1% restricted 14.0% violet 2.9% #8847ff 1.6% Mil Spec Grade 5.5% Mil Spec 1.4% #4b69ff 7.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.96 on average: an expected loss of $12.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt