---
title: "Hard Luxury case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hard Luxury ($210.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.00% from 116 items with odds, observed 98.15% over 65 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Hard Luxury](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Hard Luxury

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury?window=all)

Price · $210.00

Advertised RTP · 85.00% · EV $178.50 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.15% · 65 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 39 openings · below min

30 days · 65 openings · below min

since tracking started · 65 openings · below min

70.5% 319.0% 567.5%

**Small sample.** 65 openings and 11.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury?window=24h) | 2 | 437.80% ±128.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury?window=7d) | 39 | 111.62% ±29.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury) | 65 | 98.15% ±24.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hard-luxury?window=all) | 65 | 98.15% ±24.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $3,139 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $2,292 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,639 | $2,007 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,613 | $1,987 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,587 | $1,974 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,613 | $1,965 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 1,613 | $1,964 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,471 | $1,804 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,266 | $1,543 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,163 | $1,440 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,163 | $1,435 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $1,403 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $1,383 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 1,053 | $1,298 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,053 | $1,292 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $1,265 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,031 | $1,264 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 971 | $1,192 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 962 | $1,192 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 935 | $1,147 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 877 | $1,083 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 877 | $1,078 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 758 | $928 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 752 | $922 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 730 | $899 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 709 | $872 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $820 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 658 | $811 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $774 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 629 | $773 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $767 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 610 | $747 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 588 | $722 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 585 | $718 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 562 | $688 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 543 | $668 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 541 | $664 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 541 | $663 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 518 | $639 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 515 | $634 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 510 | $626 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 503 | $617 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 488 | $599 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 452 | $557 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 446 | $550 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 422 | $519 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 403 | $494 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 369 | $452 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 364 | $447 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $383 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 311 | $381 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 299 | $366 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 292 | $358 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 286 | $351 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 285 | $350 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 279 | $343 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 274 | $337 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 270 | $332 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 254 | $312 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 245 | $301 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 243 | $299 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $286 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 233 | $286 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 225 | $277 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 224 | $275 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $272 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-well-worn) | 1 in 204 | $250 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $250 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 203 | $249 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 201 | $247 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $233 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $233 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $224 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $224 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $223 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 178 | $219 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $206 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $202 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $201 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $170 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $168 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $167 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $167 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $164 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $164 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $159 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $155 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $152 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $150 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $150 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $148 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $143 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $141 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $138 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $136 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $124 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $120 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.68× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $116 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.44× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $116 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $116 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $111 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $110 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.31× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $103 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $99.53 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $90.04 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.89× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $88.55 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $88.04 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $87.02 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $80.00 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $79.82 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $69.76 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $65.86 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $64.86 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $58.65 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $44.74 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $44.28 | 1.2% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/hard-luxury`, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $2,007 8.03x 2026-11-09 08:58 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) [Rip](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Rip) $250 $1,968 7.87x 2026-11-10 18:02 UTC

[★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-battle-scarred) [RAVH](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/RAVH) $210 $722 3.44x 2026-11-02 22:48 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [지금 뭐 보고 있어?](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%EC%A7%80%EA%B8%88%20%EB%AD%90%20%EB%B3%B4%EA%B3%A0%20%EC%9E%88%EC%96%B4%3F) $250 $634 2.54x 2026-11-05 14:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=hard-luxury)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) [Gönnosaurus Flex](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/G%C3%B6nnosaurus%20Flex) $250 $221 0.88x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) [Rip](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Rip) $250 $1,968 7.87x 2026-11-10 18:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $2,007 8.03x 2026-11-09 08:58 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $146 0.58x 2026-11-09 08:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $145 0.58x 2026-11-09 08:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $80.54 0.32x 2026-11-09 08:58 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $139 0.56x 2026-11-09 08:57 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $110 0.44x 2026-11-09 08:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $301 1.20x 2026-11-09 08:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $250 $340 1.36x 2026-11-09 08:57 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $210 | 85.00% | 116 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $210 | 85.00% | 116 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 78.6% classified 6.8% covert knife 4.4% gold 0.1% Immortal 0.2% Covert 0.7% #eb4b4b 0.5% Classified 0.5% red 8.1% best hit $2,007 (8.03x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.00 on average: an expected loss of $15.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt