---
title: "Hardened case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hardened ($22.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.01% from 91 items with odds, observed 87.04% over 874 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Hardened](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Hardened

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened?window=all)

Price · $22.00

Advertised RTP · 88.01% · EV $19.36 from 91 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.04% · 874 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.93% ±24.74 300 openings

7 days · 90.09% ±15.62 622 openings

30 days · 87.04% ±13.35 874 openings

since tracking started · 87.04% ±13.35 874 openings

69.5% 95.0% 120.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened?window=24h) | 300 | 94.93% ±24.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened?window=7d) | 622 | 90.09% ±15.6 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened) | 874 | 87.04% ±13.4 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hardened?window=all) | 874 | 87.04% ±13.4 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 91 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 881 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $943 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $894 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $892 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $844 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $739 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $723 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $655 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $584 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $542 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,030 | $411 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $389 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,941 | $384 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $360 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $354 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $342 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $314 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,273 | $304 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 2,273 | $301 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,174 | $293 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $292 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,128 | $283 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $279 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $279 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,083 | $278 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 2,041 | $275 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,041 | $269 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,961 | $261 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,887 | $252 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,852 | $249 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $245 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $244 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,754 | $233 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,724 | $230 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,695 | $223 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $221 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,613 | $216 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,613 | $213 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,587 | $209 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,538 | $207 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,493 | $198 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $198 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,493 | $197 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $191 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,389 | $186 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,389 | $185 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,333 | $176 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,299 | $172 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,282 | $169 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,266 | $168 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $167 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,235 | $164 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,190 | $160 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,163 | $155 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,149 | $153 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $150 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $148 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $147 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,053 | $139 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,020 | $136 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 971 | $129 | 0.7% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $127 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 926 | $123 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 917 | $123 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $121 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 870 | $115 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 862 | $115 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 826 | $110 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.81× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 735 | $97.70 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 633 | $83.63 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.16× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 568 | $75.78 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 559 | $74.35 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 382 | $50.81 | 0.7% | 5 | 2.3 | 2.17× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 315 | $41.90 | 0.7% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 297 | $39.45 | 0.7% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $28.47 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $24.65 | 0.7% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.68× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 179 | $23.77 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $20.56 | 0.7% | 18 | 5.7 | 3.16× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $18.94 | 3.6% | 23 | 32.2 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $18.70 | 3.6% | 36 | 32.6 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $16.36 | 3.6% | 33 | 37.2 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.06 | 3.6% | 39 | 43.3 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $14.03 | 3.6% | 41 | 43.4 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $13.23 | 3.6% | 48 | 46.0 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $12.49 | 3.6% | 49 | 48.8 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $12.03 | 3.6% | 45 | 50.6 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $11.45 | 3.6% | 56 | 53.2 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $11.24 | 3.6% | 48 | 54.2 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-steel-disruption-field-tested) | 12.6% | $5.48 | 3.6% | 105 | 111.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 13.7% | $5.03 | 3.6% | 112 | 121.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 15.6% | $4.43 | 3.6% | 148 | 137.5 | 1.08× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/hardened`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [tatarata](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/tatarata) $22.00 $739 33.61x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=hardened)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/) $22.00 $14.06 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-factory-new) [amonchan100](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/amonchan100) $22.00 $18.94 0.86x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [Boum Boum 7](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Boum%20Boum%207) $22.00 $4.43 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-field-tested) [Boum Boum 7](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Boum%20Boum%207) $22.00 $11.45 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [HBZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/HBZ) $22.00 $16.36 0.74x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [w3bzu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/w3bzu) $22.00 $4.43 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [w3bzu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/w3bzu) $22.00 $24.65 1.12x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [Alpicio 007](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Alpicio%20007) $22.00 $4.43 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [Boul2Feu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Boul2Feu) $22.00 $12.03 0.55x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-factory-new) [Boul2Feu](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Boul2Feu) $22.00 $18.94 0.86x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $22.00 | 88.01% | 91 |
| 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $22.00 | 88.02% | 91 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $21.00 | 88.00% | 91 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $21.00 | 88.00% | 91 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.6% covert 1.0% classified 0.3% covert knife 2.0% #ffd700 0.1% Immortal 0.2% restricted 42.3% extraordinary 0.4% Restricted 4.9% Mythical 6.2% milspec 42.0% best hit $739 (33.61x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.01 on average: an expected loss of $11.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt