--- title: "Hellcase Birthday case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hellcase Birthday ($5.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.21% over 311 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday rendered: 2026-11-12T17:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Hellcase Birthday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday) # [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Hellcase Birthday A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday?window=all) Price · $5.00 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.21% · 311 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 35 openings · below min 7 days · 223 openings · below min 30 days · 311 openings · below min since tracking started · 311 openings · below min 52.0% 82.0% 112.0% **Small sample.** 311 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday?window=24h) | 35 | 81.92% ±29.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday?window=7d) | 223 | 89.10% ±15.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday) | 311 | 89.21% ±12.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hellcase-birthday?window=all) | 311 | 89.21% ±12.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Hellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=hellcase-birthday) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) [\[KKSR\] JOSKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%5BKKSR%5D%20JOSKE) $7.00 $7.69 1.10x 2026-11-12 16:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [Horcrux](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Horcrux) $7.00 $0.88 0.13x 2026-11-12 14:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [SiwuSek12 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/SiwuSek12%20skins.army) $7.00 $1.13 0.16x 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) [SiwuSek12 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/SiwuSek12%20skins.army) $7.00 $6.43 0.92x 2026-11-12 13:09 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [SiwuSek12 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/SiwuSek12%20skins.army) $7.00 $4.55 0.65x 2026-11-12 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [SiwuSek12 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/SiwuSek12%20skins.army) $7.00 $14.73 2.10x 2026-11-12 13:09 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) [szvory-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/szvory-) $7.00 $7.12 1.02x 2026-11-12 11:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [szvory-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/szvory-) $7.00 $0.88 0.13x 2026-11-12 11:00 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) [szvory-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/szvory-) $7.00 $4.87 0.70x 2026-11-12 11:00 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [criseni peek vaida](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/criseni%20peek%20vaida) $7.00 $4.85 0.69x 2026-11-12 10:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.21 on average: an expected loss of $10.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt