---
title: "Hidden Pain case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hidden Pain ($0.50) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.13% from 158 items with odds, observed 93.37% over 4,271 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Hidden Pain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Hidden Pain

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain?window=all)

Price · $0.50

Advertised RTP · 88.13% · EV $0.44 from 158 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.37% · 4,271 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.02% ±29.95 557 openings

7 days · 94.29% ±11.01 4,086 openings

30 days · 93.37% ±10.77 4,271 openings

since tracking started · 93.37% ±10.77 4,271 openings

62.5% 93.0% 123.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain?window=24h) | 557 | 93.02% ±30.0 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain?window=7d) | 4,086 | 94.29% ±11.0 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain) | 4,271 | 93.37% ±10.8 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/hidden-pain?window=all) | 4,271 | 93.37% ±10.8 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 158 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,928 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $124 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $118 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $98.92 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $81.42 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $76.27 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $68.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $60.75 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 25,000 | $50.49 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $49.18 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $46.49 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $40.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $40.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $34.18 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $32.36 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $29.90 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $28.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $26.75 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $26.23 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $25.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 12,500 | $23.72 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $23.54 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $23.50 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $21.66 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $21.08 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $20.56 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $20.41 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $15.78 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $15.66 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $15.39 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $13.66 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $13.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $11.28 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $11.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $11.28 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $10.29 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $10.22 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $10.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $9.53 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $9.45 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $9.17 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $8.86 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $8.77 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $8.75 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.76× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $8.68 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.84× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $8.26 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $8.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $7.56 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $7.02 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $6.70 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $6.64 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.03× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $6.59 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $6.58 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $6.42 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $6.05 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $6.00 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,030 | $5.96 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $5.96 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $5.92 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $5.82 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 2,632 | $5.06 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $4.40 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $4.22 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,128 | $4.19 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $4.16 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,128 | $4.15 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 2,083 | $4.10 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $4.00 | 0.4% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.07× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 2,041 | $3.98 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $3.97 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) | 1 in 1,961 | $3.82 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $3.78 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,887 | $3.67 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,852 | $3.65 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-well-worn) | 1 in 1,818 | $3.52 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 1,786 | $3.52 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,786 | $3.49 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,754 | $3.44 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 1,754 | $3.43 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.42× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $3.43 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $3.22 | 0.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,613 | $3.17 | 0.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $3.16 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,613 | $3.16 | 0.4% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $3.01 | 0.4% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $3.00 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,515 | $2.95 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,449 | $2.84 | 0.4% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 1,370 | $2.68 | 0.4% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,351 | $2.64 | 0.4% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,351 | $2.63 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 1,299 | $2.55 | 0.4% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.84× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,282 | $2.51 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 1,282 | $2.48 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $2.39 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $2.38 | 0.4% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,190 | $2.33 | 0.4% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 1,190 | $2.32 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,136 | $2.22 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) | 1 in 1,136 | $2.21 | 0.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $1.96 | 0.4% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 990 | $1.93 | 0.4% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.61× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 943 | $1.84 | 0.4% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-well-worn) | 1 in 901 | $1.77 | 0.4% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 901 | $1.75 | 0.4% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $1.61 | 0.4% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $1.51 | 0.4% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.25× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 775 | $1.51 | 0.4% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.79× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 763 | $1.49 | 0.4% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-well-worn) | 1 in 763 | $1.49 | 0.4% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 714 | $1.40 | 0.4% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 709 | $1.39 | 0.4% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 709 | $1.38 | 0.4% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 676 | $1.32 | 0.4% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.65× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $1.23 | 0.4% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.89× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 625 | $1.22 | 0.4% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 617 | $1.21 | 0.4% | 13 | 8.0 | 1.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-well-worn) | 1 in 617 | $1.20 | 0.4% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 610 | $1.19 | 0.4% | 12 | 8.1 | 1.48× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 602 | $1.18 | 0.4% | 4 | 8.2 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 606 | $1.18 | 0.4% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 592 | $1.16 | 0.4% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 571 | $1.12 | 0.4% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 568 | $1.11 | 0.4% | 11 | 8.7 | 1.27× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 565 | $1.10 | 0.4% | 3 | 8.7 | 0.34× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 559 | $1.09 | 0.4% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 556 | $1.09 | 0.4% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-well-worn) | 1 in 543 | $1.06 | 0.4% | 14 | 9.1 | 1.54× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 532 | $1.04 | 0.4% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $1.03 | 0.4% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-field-tested) | 1 in 503 | $0.98 | 0.4% | 14 | 9.8 | 1.43× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-well-worn) | 1 in 485 | $0.95 | 0.4% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 483 | $0.94 | 0.4% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.27× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-factory-new) | 1 in 481 | $0.94 | 0.4% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-contaminant-battle-scarred) | 1 in 439 | $0.86 | 0.4% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-battle-scarred) | 1 in 437 | $0.85 | 0.4% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-factory-new) | 1 in 427 | $0.83 | 0.4% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 342 | $0.67 | 0.4% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 271 | $0.53 | 0.4% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-field-tested) | 1 in 272 | $0.53 | 0.4% | 16 | 18.1 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 246 | $0.48 | 0.4% | 16 | 20.1 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 246 | $0.48 | 0.4% | 17 | 20.1 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $0.38 | 2.2% | 142 | 125.5 | 1.13× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.38 | 2.2% | 123 | 125.5 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.35 | 2.2% | 133 | 136.3 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.32 | 2.2% | 161 | 149.1 | 1.08× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.32 | 2.2% | 171 | 149.1 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.26 | 2.2% | 173 | 183.4 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.24 | 2.2% | 185 | 198.7 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.24 | 2.2% | 187 | 198.7 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.20 | 2.2% | 213 | 238.5 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.20 | 2.2% | 246 | 238.5 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.18 | 2.2% | 255 | 264.9 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.16 | 2.2% | 329 | 298.1 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.15 | 2.2% | 318 | 318.0 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.12 | 2.2% | 448 | 397.4 | 1.13× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.12 | 2.2% | 396 | 397.4 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.10 | 2.2% | 435 | 477.0 | 0.91× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $0.10 | 2.2% | 462 | 476.9 | 0.97× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/hidden-pain`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) [0Gniedojeb](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/0Gniedojeb) $0.50 $69.54 139.1x 2026-11-07 17:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) [xSPASYx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xSPASYx) $0.50 $50.97 101.9x 2026-11-05 16:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) [xSPASYx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xSPASYx) $0.50 $29.90 59.80x 2026-11-09 20:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) [gecona](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/gecona) $0.50 $26.75 53.50x 2026-11-08 03:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=hidden-pain)

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-minimal-wear) [florent\_kinder](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/florent_kinder) $0.50 $0.24 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-field-tested) [-N05F3-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/-N05F3-) $0.50 $0.15 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-well-worn) [-N05F3-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/-N05F3-) $0.50 $0.12 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[M4A4 | Dark Operative (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-well-worn) [-N05F3-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/-N05F3-) $0.50 $0.38 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[P250 | Contaminant (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-well-worn) [„ skins.army” Oli](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%80%9E%20skins.army%E2%80%9D%20Oli) $0.50 $0.95 1.90x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-field-tested) [amonchan100](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/amonchan100) $0.50 $0.16 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-well-worn) [xxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xxx) $0.50 $0.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-battle-scarred) [xxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xxx) $0.50 $0.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-well-worn) [xxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xxx) $0.50 $0.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-well-worn) [xxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/xxx) $0.50 $0.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $0.50 | 88.13% | 158 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $0.50 | 88.22% | 158 |
| 9 Nov, 20:18 UTC | $0.50 | 88.13% | 158 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $0.50 | 88.20% | 158 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $0.50 | 88.17% | 158 |
| 6 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.50 | 88.33% | 158 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $0.50 | 88.05% | 158 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $0.50 | 88.12% | 158 |
| 4 Nov, 04:57 UTC | $0.50 | 88.16% | 158 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.1% Classified 0.0% pink 0.0% Legendary 0.0% restricted 1.9% milspec 25.5% mil spec 0.2% Mythical 0.5% uncommon 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% blue 10.9% #8847ff 1.8% violet 2.4% Restricted 0.2% Rare 0.8% common 3.9% #4b69ff 51.4% best hit $69.54 (139.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.13 on average: an expected loss of $11.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt