---
title: "Keep Quiet case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Keep Quiet ($6.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.03% from 132 items with odds, observed 84.34% over 5,549 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Keep Quiet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Keep Quiet

A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet?window=all)

Price · $6.00

Advertised RTP · 88.03% · EV $5.28 from 132 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.34% · 5,549 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.19% ±15.85 448 openings

7 days · 84.36% ±4.90 4,662 openings

30 days · 84.34% ±4.49 5,549 openings

since tracking started · 84.34% ±4.49 5,549 openings

74.5% 91.0% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet?window=24h) | 448 | 91.19% ±15.9 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet?window=7d) | 4,662 | 84.36% ±4.90 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet) | 5,549 | 84.34% ±4.49 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/keep-quiet?window=all) | 5,549 | 84.34% ±4.49 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 132 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,561 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $293 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $266 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $150 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $140 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $122 | 0.9% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $98.80 | 0.9% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $79.26 | 0.9% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,538 | $74.03 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,493 | $72.59 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,316 | $64.34 | 0.9% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $45.18 | 0.9% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 917 | $44.45 | 0.9% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 901 | $43.69 | 0.9% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $43.64 | 0.9% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 870 | $42.25 | 0.9% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 847 | $41.27 | 0.9% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 840 | $40.79 | 0.9% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 833 | $40.40 | 0.9% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.50× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $39.85 | 0.9% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 813 | $39.64 | 0.9% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $38.93 | 0.9% | 3 | 7.0 | 0.43× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 800 | $38.76 | 0.9% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $34.50 | 0.9% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 704 | $34.24 | 0.9% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 671 | $32.75 | 0.9% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 505 | $24.56 | 0.9% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 498 | $24.25 | 0.9% | 13 | 11.2 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 461 | $22.44 | 0.9% | 13 | 12.1 | 1.08× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 433 | $21.08 | 0.9% | 8 | 12.8 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 431 | $21.02 | 0.9% | 18 | 12.9 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 420 | $20.45 | 0.9% | 16 | 13.2 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 392 | $19.07 | 0.9% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.71× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 388 | $18.87 | 0.9% | 12 | 14.3 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 368 | $17.88 | 0.9% | 9 | 15.1 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 356 | $17.35 | 0.9% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 353 | $17.23 | 0.9% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 353 | $17.20 | 0.9% | 19 | 15.7 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 347 | $16.91 | 0.9% | 21 | 16.0 | 1.31× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 345 | $16.77 | 0.9% | 18 | 16.1 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 341 | $16.63 | 0.9% | 14 | 16.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 298 | $14.49 | 0.9% | 22 | 18.7 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 295 | $14.36 | 0.9% | 13 | 18.9 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 292 | $14.17 | 0.9% | 24 | 19.1 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 287 | $13.94 | 0.9% | 17 | 19.4 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 270 | $13.09 | 0.9% | 22 | 20.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 242 | $11.74 | 0.9% | 25 | 23.0 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 231 | $11.26 | 0.9% | 23 | 24.0 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $10.91 | 0.9% | 26 | 24.8 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $10.83 | 0.9% | 30 | 25.0 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $10.53 | 0.9% | 35 | 25.7 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 210 | $10.21 | 0.9% | 30 | 26.5 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $10.04 | 0.9% | 34 | 26.9 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 203 | $9.88 | 0.9% | 17 | 27.4 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 198 | $9.63 | 0.9% | 45 | 28.1 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-boost-protocol-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $9.20 | 0.9% | 22 | 29.4 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $9.18 | 0.9% | 24 | 29.5 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $9.07 | 0.9% | 32 | 29.8 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $8.91 | 0.9% | 21 | 30.4 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $8.89 | 0.9% | 30 | 30.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 180 | $8.75 | 0.9% | 34 | 30.9 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $8.71 | 0.9% | 31 | 31.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 174 | $8.44 | 0.9% | 22 | 32.0 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 170 | $8.28 | 0.9% | 35 | 32.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $8.12 | 0.9% | 34 | 33.3 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 166 | $8.07 | 0.9% | 33 | 33.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $7.94 | 0.9% | 30 | 34.1 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $7.90 | 0.9% | 33 | 34.3 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 162 | $7.88 | 0.9% | 23 | 34.3 | 0.67× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159 | $7.75 | 0.9% | 29 | 34.9 | 0.83× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 155 | $7.52 | 0.9% | 40 | 36.0 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $7.38 | 0.9% | 42 | 36.6 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 150 | $7.31 | 0.9% | 37 | 37.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) | 1 in 150 | $7.28 | 0.9% | 38 | 37.1 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $7.16 | 0.9% | 35 | 37.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $7.14 | 0.9% | 31 | 37.9 | 0.82× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $6.95 | 0.9% | 48 | 38.9 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 142 | $6.92 | 0.9% | 33 | 39.1 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $6.89 | 0.9% | 37 | 39.3 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-well-worn) | 1 in 141 | $6.84 | 0.9% | 49 | 39.5 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $6.82 | 0.9% | 53 | 39.7 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $6.44 | 0.9% | 36 | 42.0 | 0.86× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $6.35 | 0.9% | 48 | 42.6 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $6.16 | 0.9% | 48 | 43.9 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 124 | $6.03 | 0.9% | 53 | 44.8 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $5.91 | 0.9% | 55 | 45.8 | 1.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $5.88 | 0.9% | 43 | 46.0 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 221 | $5.26 | 0.5% | 22 | 25.2 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $4.85 | 0.5% | 28 | 27.4 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 201 | $4.78 | 0.5% | 29 | 27.7 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $4.76 | 0.5% | 28 | 27.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 199 | $4.73 | 0.5% | 29 | 28.0 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $4.68 | 0.5% | 33 | 28.3 | 1.17× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 195 | $4.64 | 0.5% | 30 | 28.5 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 190 | $4.54 | 0.5% | 38 | 29.2 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 189 | $4.52 | 0.5% | 33 | 29.4 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 187 | $4.46 | 0.5% | 36 | 29.8 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 177 | $4.21 | 0.5% | 36 | 31.5 | 1.14× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 174 | $4.15 | 0.5% | 32 | 31.9 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 172 | $4.11 | 0.5% | 27 | 32.3 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $4.03 | 0.5% | 25 | 32.9 | 0.76× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $4.02 | 0.5% | 31 | 33.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 168 | $4.00 | 0.5% | 32 | 33.1 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 166 | $3.96 | 0.5% | 32 | 33.5 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 164 | $3.91 | 0.5% | 41 | 33.9 | 1.21× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-well-worn) | 1 in 162 | $3.86 | 0.5% | 22 | 34.3 | 0.64× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 161 | $3.84 | 0.5% | 30 | 34.5 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 1 in 142 | $3.38 | 0.5% | 46 | 39.2 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138 | $3.28 | 0.5% | 37 | 40.4 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 134 | $3.19 | 0.5% | 46 | 41.5 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $2.86 | 0.5% | 60 | 46.3 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $2.61 | 0.5% | 57 | 50.8 | 1.12× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $2.29 | 0.5% | 70 | 57.9 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $2.07 | 0.5% | 76 | 64.1 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1.90 | 0.5% | 64 | 69.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $1.82 | 0.5% | 71 | 72.8 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $1.52 | 0.5% | 73 | 87.2 | 0.84× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $1.46 | 0.5% | 74 | 90.8 | 0.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $1.44 | 0.5% | 101 | 92.0 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $1.42 | 0.5% | 81 | 93.3 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $1.36 | 0.5% | 113 | 97.4 | 1.16× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $1.27 | 0.5% | 88 | 104.4 | 0.84× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $1.17 | 0.5% | 111 | 113.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.15 | 0.5% | 120 | 115.2 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $1.08 | 0.5% | 124 | 122.7 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.98 | 0.5% | 159 | 135.2 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $0.88 | 0.5% | 171 | 150.6 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.66 | 0.5% | 187 | 200.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.64 | 0.5% | 210 | 207.1 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.62 | 0.5% | 204 | 213.8 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.54 | 0.5% | 214 | 245.4 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.47 | 0.5% | 262 | 282.0 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.47 | 0.5% | 285 | 282.0 | 1.01× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/keep-quiet`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=keep-quiet)

[StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [Truemperor](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Truemperor) $6.00 $21.02 3.50x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) [Jlobsta](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Jlobsta) $6.00 $0.54 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) [Truemperor](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Truemperor) $6.00 $6.16 1.03x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) [Truemperor](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Truemperor) $6.00 $1.44 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [Truemperor](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Truemperor) $6.00 $4.64 0.77x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-minimal-wear) [Truemperor](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Truemperor) $6.00 $2.61 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) [Bog with Dong](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Bog%20with%20Dong) $6.00 $0.54 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) [Bog with Dong](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Bog%20with%20Dong) $6.00 $4.11 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-battle-scarred) [Bog with Dong](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Bog%20with%20Dong) $6.00 $0.47 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-battle-scarred) [TreeKs](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TreeKs) $6.00 $0.64 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $6.00 | 88.03% | 132 |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $6.00 | 88.05% | 132 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $6.00 | 88.32% | 132 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $6.00 | 88.03% | 132 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $6.00 | 88.01% | 132 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $6.00 | 87.95% | 132 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $6.00 | 88.00% | 132 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $6.00 | 88.00% | 132 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $6.00 | 88.01% | 132 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $6.00 | 88.00% | 132 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $6.00 | 87.99% | 132 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 1.9% 3 5.1% classified 14.2% covert 0.6% restricted 31.5% Legendary 3.3% red 0.1% Restricted 1.4% Classified 1.9% pink 5.1% Mythical 2.4% #8847ff 3.7% Mil Spec Grade 0.6% violet 8.1% #d32ee6 1.1% blue 0.7% milspec 12.6% mil spec 2.2% #4b69ff 3.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.03 on average: an expected loss of $11.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt