---
title: "Lore case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lore ($160.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.99% from 105 items with odds, observed 82.57% over 53 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Lore

A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore?window=all)

Price · $160.00

Advertised RTP · 84.99% · EV $135.99 from 105 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.57% · 53 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 48 openings · below min

30 days · 53 openings · below min

since tracking started · 53 openings · below min

-0.5% 77.8% 156.0%

**Small sample.** 53 openings and 16.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore?window=24h) | 4 | 67.95% ±87.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore?window=7d) | 48 | 83.99% ±22.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore) | 53 | 82.57% ±21.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/lore?window=all) | 53 | 82.57% ±21.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 105 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,632 | $1,880 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $1,582 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $1,539 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $1,241 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,695 | $1,221 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,587 | $1,147 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,493 | $1,070 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,389 | $1,004 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,351 | $979 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,351 | $968 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,316 | $956 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $899 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $857 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,124 | $813 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,075 | $778 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 1,064 | $762 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,042 | $750 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,031 | $744 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 952 | $689 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $659 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 901 | $648 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 885 | $637 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 877 | $635 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 840 | $606 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 769 | $555 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 719 | $517 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 699 | $508 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 641 | $463 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 637 | $459 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 613 | $444 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 581 | $417 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 559 | $402 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 538 | $389 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 488 | $352 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $343 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 450 | $325 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 433 | $313 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 424 | $306 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 422 | $305 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 415 | $299 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 413 | $298 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 398 | $288 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 395 | $285 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 391 | $282 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 383 | $277 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 358 | $259 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 347 | $251 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 337 | $243 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $240 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 332 | $240 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 324 | $233 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $214 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 290 | $210 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 290 | $209 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 274 | $198 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 272 | $197 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 272 | $196 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 261 | $188 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 252 | $182 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 242 | $174 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $170 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $168 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 224 | $162 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $162 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | $159 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 219 | $158 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 214 | $154 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $153 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 212 | $153 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $147 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 202 | $145 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 201 | $145 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 199 | $144 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $142 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 193 | $140 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $139 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $134 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $128 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.58× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $128 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $126 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $125 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $124 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $124 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $124 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.50× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $123 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $121 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $117 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $116 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $116 | 2.1% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.13× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $115 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $112 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $110 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $103 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $102 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.38× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $101 | 2.1% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.40× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $100 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $99.38 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $85.70 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $80.47 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $79.67 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $76.17 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.51× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $72.49 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $70.81 | 2.1% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $66.00 | 2.1% | 7 | 2.2 | 3.11× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $65.78 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/lore`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) [Meo Lessi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Meo%20Lessi) $160 $690 4.31x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [zat](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/zat) $160 $634 3.96x 2026-11-06 18:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=lore)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) [bongomurzynkongo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/bongomurzynkongo) $95.00 $66.00 0.69x 2026-11-11 05:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) [Jxzuno](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Jxzuno) $160 $121 0.76x 2026-11-10 19:25 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [kick : Twillv98](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/kick%20%3A%20Twillv98) $160 $128 0.80x 2026-11-10 16:58 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-lore-well-worn) [kick : Twillv98](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/kick%20%3A%20Twillv98) $160 $76.17 0.48x 2026-11-10 16:58 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-lore-field-tested) [MOCNYBOT](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/MOCNYBOT) $160 $116 0.73x 2026-11-10 13:43 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) [BESARI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/BESARI) $160 $126 0.79x 2026-11-10 00:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) [Meo Lessi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Meo%20Lessi) $160 $690 4.31x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) [gigi](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/gigi) $160 $79.67 0.50x 2026-11-09 19:34 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-well-worn) [sabes](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/sabes) $160 $101 0.63x 2026-11-08 18:47 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [sabes](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/sabes) $160 $85.70 0.54x 2026-11-08 18:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $160 | 84.99% | 105 |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $160 | 85.00% | 105 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $160 | 85.00% | 105 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $160 | 84.99% | 105 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $160 | 85.00% | 105 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $160 | 85.00% | 105 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $160 | 85.00% | 105 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $160 | 84.99% | 105 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $160 | 85.00% | 105 |
| 4 Nov, 08:59 UTC | $160 | 84.93% | 105 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $160 | 84.99% | 105 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $160 | 84.99% | 105 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 53.3% covert knife 33.7% gold 5.4% rare 0.1% epic 0.1% Covert 5.2% Immortal 2.2% best hit $690 (4.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.99 on average: an expected loss of $15.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt