---
title: "Märchen case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Märchen ($1.50) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.05% from 168 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Märchen](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Märchen

A case on Hellcase (germany-cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 88.05% · EV $1.32 from 168 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/marchen?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 168 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $194 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $191 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $181 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $171 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $169 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $157 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $150 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $146 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $133 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $128 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $124 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $121 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 25,000 | $117 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $109 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $99.96 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $98.92 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $95.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $86.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $84.60 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $83.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $81.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $81.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $78.94 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $76.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $73.22 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,667 | $72.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $72.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $71.03 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $70.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $68.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $64.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $61.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $61.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 14,286 | $55.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $55.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,500 | $50.96 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 11,111 | $50.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $49.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $49.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $47.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $46.84 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $46.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $41.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $40.64 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $40.21 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $38.09 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $35.86 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $35.41 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $34.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $33.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $33.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $28.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $26.75 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $26.20 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $25.46 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $23.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $21.80 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $21.66 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.08 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,762 | $20.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $20.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $19.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.75 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.72 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.39 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $18.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $17.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $17.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $16.12 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,704 | $16.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 3,704 | $15.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $14.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $14.94 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $13.66 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 2,632 | $11.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,703 | $11.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $10.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,439 | $10.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $10.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 2,326 | $10.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $9.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,273 | $9.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $9.50 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 2,174 | $9.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $8.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $8.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $8.34 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,923 | $8.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,786 | $7.51 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $7.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,695 | $7.25 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 1,695 | $7.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $6.84 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,587 | $6.79 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 1,587 | $6.74 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 1,562 | $6.70 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $6.65 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 1,562 | $6.65 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 1,538 | $6.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,515 | $6.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,493 | $6.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,449 | $6.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $6.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $6.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $5.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-well-worn) | 1 in 1,163 | $4.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 1,149 | $4.91 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,064 | $4.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 1,042 | $4.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,031 | $4.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-well-worn) | 1 in 990 | $4.25 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 980 | $4.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 826 | $3.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 826 | $3.51 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $3.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 806 | $3.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $3.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 787 | $3.34 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 775 | $3.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 741 | $3.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 746 | $3.16 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) | 1 in 714 | $3.03 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 704 | $3.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-well-worn) | 1 in 704 | $2.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 685 | $2.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 680 | $2.89 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $2.66 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 621 | $2.64 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 621 | $2.63 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 552 | $2.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-well-worn) | 1 in 483 | $2.05 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 465 | $1.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 452 | $1.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 446 | $1.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 433 | $1.84 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-well-worn) | 1 in 417 | $1.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 412 | $1.75 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 402 | $1.71 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 402 | $1.71 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 376 | $1.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-field-tested) | 1 in 369 | $1.57 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 365 | $1.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 351 | $1.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-well-worn) | 1 in 351 | $1.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 346 | $1.47 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $1.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-well-worn) | 1 in 330 | $1.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 329 | $1.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 325 | $1.38 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 319 | $1.36 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 317 | $1.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.32 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.23 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.19 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.09 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.95 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.94 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.71 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.65 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.64 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-well-worn) | 10.3% | $0.53 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 10.7% | $0.51 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $0.42 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/marchen`, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=marchen)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.50 | 88.05% | 168 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.50 | 88.10% | 168 |
| 8 Nov, 06:49 UTC | $1.50 | 87.96% | 168 |
| 6 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.50 | 87.98% | 168 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $1.50 | 87.81% | 168 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.50 | 87.95% | 168 |
| 3 Nov, 02:05 UTC | $1.50 | 87.88% | 168 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 0.3% covert 0.1% Ancient 0.0% classified 1.4% epic 0.0% rare 0.0% Classified 0.1% #d32ee6 0.1% red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 0.4% milspec 21.5% mil spec 28.9% Restricted 0.6% #8847ff 1.2% Mythical 1.1% violet 10.5% #4b69ff 5.8% restricted 3.4% Mil Spec Grade 0.3% blue 11.0% uncommon 0.3% Rare 13.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.05 on average: an expected loss of $11.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt