---
title: "Not A Ghost case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Not A Ghost ($2.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.01% from 140 items with odds, observed 87.90% over 20.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Not A Ghost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Not A Ghost

A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 88.01% · EV $1.76 from 140 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.90% · 20.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.40% ±10.01 1,709 openings

7 days · 88.09% ±3.21 16.7K openings

30 days · 87.90% ±2.92 20.2K openings

since tracking started · 87.90% ±2.92 20.2K openings

82.5% 93.3% 104.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost?window=24h) | 1,709 | 93.40% ±10.0 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost?window=7d) | 16.7K | 88.09% ±3.21 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost) | 20.2K | 87.90% ±2.92 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/not-a-ghost?window=all) | 20.2K | 87.90% ±2.92 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $124 | 1.6% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $76.27 | 1.6% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $68.35 | 1.6% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.33× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 1,818 | $50.49 | 1.6% | 20 | 11.1 | 1.80× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,639 | $46.49 | 1.6% | 11 | 12.3 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,471 | $40.64 | 1.6% | 10 | 13.8 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $32.36 | 1.6% | 14 | 17.4 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $25.80 | 1.6% | 29 | 21.8 | 1.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $25.46 | 1.6% | 24 | 22.3 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 775 | $21.66 | 1.6% | 24 | 26.1 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 735 | $20.56 | 1.6% | 28 | 27.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 552 | $15.39 | 1.6% | 30 | 36.6 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 510 | $14.24 | 1.6% | 36 | 39.7 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 461 | $12.88 | 1.6% | 33 | 43.9 | 0.75× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 365 | $10.20 | 1.6% | 43 | 55.4 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 328 | $9.17 | 1.6% | 60 | 61.7 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 308 | $8.59 | 1.6% | 68 | 65.8 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 295 | $8.26 | 1.6% | 72 | 68.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 273 | $7.64 | 1.6% | 79 | 74.0 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 269 | $7.51 | 1.6% | 87 | 75.3 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $7.23 | 1.6% | 84 | 78.3 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 226 | $6.31 | 1.6% | 85 | 89.6 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | $6.16 | 1.6% | 90 | 91.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $6.00 | 1.6% | 112 | 94.3 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $5.96 | 1.6% | 86 | 94.9 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 211 | $5.92 | 1.6% | 95 | 95.7 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 174 | $4.87 | 1.6% | 118 | 116.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $4.33 | 1.6% | 127 | 130.7 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $4.28 | 1.6% | 124 | 132.1 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $4.20 | 1.6% | 99 | 134.7 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $4.00 | 1.6% | 153 | 141.4 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 136 | $3.81 | 1.6% | 138 | 148.5 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $3.62 | 1.6% | 159 | 156.4 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $3.37 | 1.6% | 190 | 167.9 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 107 | $3.00 | 1.6% | 190 | 188.6 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $2.98 | 1.6% | 195 | 190.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $2.95 | 1.6% | 168 | 191.8 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $2.55 | 1.6% | 216 | 221.9 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $2.51 | 1.6% | 208 | 225.4 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $2.48 | 1.6% | 187 | 228.2 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $2.46 | 1.6% | 248 | 230.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $2.45 | 1.6% | 239 | 230.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $2.43 | 1.6% | 213 | 232.9 | 0.91× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $2.42 | 1.6% | 238 | 233.7 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $2.40 | 1.6% | 251 | 235.9 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $2.35 | 1.6% | 260 | 240.7 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $2.08 | 1.6% | 253 | 272.1 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $2.02 | 1.6% | 279 | 280.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $2.02 | 1.6% | 289 | 280.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $1.93 | 1.6% | 320 | 293.1 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $1.90 | 1.6% | 289 | 297.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $1.90 | 1.6% | 319 | 297.8 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $1.83 | 1.6% | 225 | 309.1 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $1.82 | 1.6% | 309 | 311.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 581 | $1.69 | 0.2% | 39 | 34.8 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 581 | $1.69 | 0.2% | 34 | 34.8 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 549 | $1.60 | 0.2% | 39 | 36.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 549 | $1.60 | 0.2% | 42 | 36.8 | 1.14× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 546 | $1.58 | 0.2% | 45 | 37.0 | 1.22× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 518 | $1.51 | 0.2% | 27 | 39.0 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 495 | $1.44 | 0.2% | 57 | 40.9 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 478 | $1.39 | 0.2% | 38 | 42.3 | 0.90× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 469 | $1.36 | 0.2% | 44 | 43.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 415 | $1.21 | 0.2% | 49 | 48.8 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 413 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 34 | 49.0 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 413 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 50 | 49.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 413 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 49 | 49.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 413 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 63 | 49.0 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 410 | $1.19 | 0.2% | 42 | 49.4 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $1.16 | 0.2% | 55 | 50.6 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 392 | $1.14 | 0.2% | 47 | 51.6 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Featherweight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-featherweight-factory-new) | 1 in 392 | $1.14 | 0.2% | 61 | 51.6 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 385 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 52 | 52.6 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 386 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 52 | 52.4 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 386 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 34 | 52.4 | 0.65× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 379 | $1.10 | 0.2% | 59 | 53.4 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 372 | $1.08 | 0.2% | 52 | 54.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 369 | $1.07 | 0.2% | 61 | 54.8 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 365 | $1.06 | 0.2% | 60 | 55.4 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 357 | $1.04 | 0.2% | 62 | 56.6 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 353 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 59 | 57.3 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 355 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 66 | 57.1 | 1.16× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-well-worn) | 1 in 344 | $1.00 | 0.2% | 51 | 58.9 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 334 | $0.97 | 0.2% | 67 | 60.5 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 316 | $0.92 | 0.2% | 69 | 63.9 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 307 | $0.89 | 0.2% | 64 | 66.0 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 303 | $0.88 | 0.2% | 59 | 66.8 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 297 | $0.86 | 0.2% | 65 | 68.2 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $0.83 | 0.2% | 64 | 70.8 | 0.90× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 282 | $0.82 | 0.2% | 61 | 71.6 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 275 | $0.80 | 0.2% | 76 | 73.4 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 272 | $0.79 | 0.2% | 68 | 74.2 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-battle-scarred) | 1 in 272 | $0.79 | 0.2% | 69 | 74.2 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 268 | $0.78 | 0.2% | 73 | 75.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 265 | $0.77 | 0.2% | 75 | 76.3 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 262 | $0.76 | 0.2% | 63 | 77.3 | 0.82× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 261 | $0.76 | 0.2% | 81 | 77.5 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 254 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 83 | 79.5 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 255 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 74 | 79.3 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 255 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 75 | 79.3 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-field-tested) | 1 in 251 | $0.73 | 0.2% | 93 | 80.5 | 1.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) | 1 in 251 | $0.73 | 0.2% | 88 | 80.5 | 1.09× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $0.73 | 0.2% | 92 | 80.5 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 248 | $0.72 | 0.2% | 81 | 81.5 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 248 | $0.72 | 0.2% | 93 | 81.7 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 241 | $0.70 | 0.2% | 94 | 84.0 | 1.12× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 231 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 76 | 87.6 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 230 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 96 | 87.8 | 1.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 231 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 112 | 87.6 | 1.28× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 224 | $0.65 | 0.2% | 80 | 90.4 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 103 | 106.8 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 123 | 106.8 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.54 | 0.2% | 100 | 108.8 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $0.48 | 0.2% | 123 | 122.4 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 162 | $0.47 | 0.2% | 117 | 125.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 148 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 135 | 136.8 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 134 | 136.8 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 151 | 146.9 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 171 | 159.0 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 174 | 158.8 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $0.36 | 0.2% | 180 | 163.3 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $0.35 | 0.2% | 170 | 167.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 114 | $0.33 | 0.2% | 177 | 178.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 114 | $0.33 | 0.2% | 184 | 178.0 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $0.28 | 0.2% | 240 | 210.0 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $0.22 | 0.2% | 228 | 267.0 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.21 | 0.2% | 285 | 280.0 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $0.18 | 0.2% | 278 | 326.5 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 437 | 419.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 418 | 419.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.13 | 0.2% | 459 | 452.0 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 462 | 489.6 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 559 | 489.8 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 462 | 489.8 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Featherweight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-featherweight-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.12 | 0.2% | 538 | 489.8 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.10 | 0.2% | 595 | 587.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Featherweight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-featherweight-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $0.10 | 0.2% | 538 | 587.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Featherweight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-featherweight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $0.10 | 0.2% | 608 | 587.7 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $0.09 | 0.2% | 684 | 652.9 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.09 | 0.2% | 638 | 653.1 | 0.98× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/not-a-ghost`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) [Songoku.1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Songoku.1) $2.00 $124 61.76x 2026-11-10 20:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) [leo\_jackson808](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/leo_jackson808) $2.00 $124 61.76x 2026-11-10 09:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) [Kamds](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Kamds) $2.00 $124 61.76x 2026-11-07 14:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) [𝙆𝙄𝘽𝙊𝙎𝙃𝙄](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%F0%9D%99%86%F0%9D%99%84%F0%9D%98%BD%F0%9D%99%8A%F0%9D%99%8E%F0%9D%99%83%F0%9D%99%84) $2.00 $124 61.76x 2026-11-05 02:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=not-a-ghost)

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) [Milan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Milan) $2.00 $1.20 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Featherweight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-featherweight-battle-scarred) [Milan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Milan) $2.00 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) [blackman23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/blackman23) $2.00 $4.87 2.44x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-minimal-wear) [🌸eXoGamer502🌸](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%F0%9F%8C%B8eXoGamer502%F0%9F%8C%B8) $2.00 $0.18 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [MELAO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/MELAO) $2.00 $0.14 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-well-worn) [MELAO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/MELAO) $2.00 $1.83 0.92x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) [MELAO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/MELAO) $2.00 $2.08 1.04x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) [MELAO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/MELAO) $2.00 $2.02 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) [MELAO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/MELAO) $2.00 $0.47 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Featherweight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-featherweight-well-worn) [MELAO](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/MELAO) $2.00 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $2.00 | 88.01% | 140 |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $2.00 | 88.01% | 140 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $2.00 | 87.91% | 140 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $2.00 | 88.03% | 140 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $2.00 | 87.99% | 140 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $2.00 | 88.03% | 140 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.00 | 88.00% | 140 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $2.00 | 88.01% | 140 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.6% Classified 0.1% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 17.8% Mythical 5.6% milspec 32.9% Rare 2.6% restricted 12.3% #8847ff 2.0% Restricted 2.5% blue 3.9% Mil Spec Grade 4.3% #4b69ff 14.0% Mil Spec 1.3% best hit $124 (61.76x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.01 on average: an expected loss of $11.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt