---
title: "Probably Dead case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Probably Dead ($0.50) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.94% from 78 items with odds, observed 87.32% over 78.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Probably Dead](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Probably Dead

A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead?window=all)

Price · $0.50

Advertised RTP · 87.94% · EV $0.44 from 78 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.32% · 78.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.41% ±5.53 9,199 openings

7 days · 87.21% ±2.09 64.9K openings

30 days · 87.32% ±1.90 78.9K openings

since tracking started · 87.32% ±1.90 78.9K openings

84.5% 91.0% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead?window=24h) | 9,199 | 91.41% ±5.53 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead?window=7d) | 64.9K | 87.21% ±2.09 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead) | 78.9K | 87.32% ±1.90 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/probably-dead?window=all) | 78.9K | 87.32% ±1.90 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $38.32 | 1.7% | 23 | 15.0 | 1.53× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $24.66 | 1.7% | 26 | 24.5 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $23.52 | 1.7% | 25 | 25.3 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $22.50 | 1.7% | 17 | 26.8 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,778 | $20.66 | 1.7% | 31 | 28.4 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $17.49 | 1.8% | 40 | 34.7 | 1.15× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,083 | $15.85 | 1.7% | 36 | 37.9 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $15.46 | 1.8% | 35 | 39.5 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $15.16 | 1.7% | 29 | 39.5 | 0.73× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $15.10 | 1.7% | 29 | 39.5 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $7.57 | 1.7% | 75 | 79.0 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 971 | $7.33 | 1.7% | 81 | 81.3 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $6.08 | 1.7% | 102 | 98.7 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 461 | $3.50 | 1.7% | 148 | 171.3 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) | 1 in 431 | $3.28 | 1.7% | 209 | 183.2 | 1.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) | 1 in 388 | $2.95 | 1.7% | 198 | 203.7 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 280 | $2.13 | 1.7% | 302 | 281.9 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 216 | $1.64 | 1.7% | 346 | 365.6 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 1 in 171 | $1.30 | 1.7% | 503 | 461.1 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $1.23 | 1.7% | 527 | 488.0 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $1.15 | 1.7% | 539 | 521.1 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $1.13 | 1.7% | 537 | 531.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $1.13 | 1.7% | 527 | 530.6 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $1.12 | 1.7% | 592 | 535.4 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $1.00 | 1.7% | 631 | 599.3 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 129 | $0.98 | 1.7% | 645 | 612.0 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $0.86 | 1.7% | 691 | 697.2 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $0.84 | 1.7% | 750 | 714.6 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-clear-polymer-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $0.73 | 1.7% | 827 | 822.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-clear-polymer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $0.71 | 1.7% | 879 | 844.9 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $0.71 | 1.7% | 844 | 844.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $0.70 | 1.7% | 850 | 856.7 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.67 | 1.7% | 1,200 | 895.4 | 1.34× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $0.65 | 1.7% | 993 | 923.1 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.55 | 1.7% | 1,094 | 1090.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.55 | 1.7% | 1,062 | 1090.5 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $0.54 | 1.7% | 1,192 | 1111.0 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $0.50 | 1.7% | 886 | 1200.2 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $0.46 | 1.7% | 664 | 1303.7 | 0.51× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.45 | 1.7% | 983 | 1332.9 | 0.74× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 701 | 642.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 1,183 | 642.8 | 1.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.44 | 0.8% | 702 | 642.8 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $0.38 | 0.8% | 810 | 744.6 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $0.38 | 0.8% | 786 | 744.6 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $0.35 | 0.8% | 882 | 808.6 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $0.34 | 0.8% | 861 | 832.3 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.33 | 0.8% | 935 | 857.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.33 | 0.8% | 860 | 857.5 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $0.32 | 0.8% | 799 | 884.4 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.32 | 0.8% | 874 | 883.6 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $0.31 | 0.8% | 1,016 | 912.0 | 1.11× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $0.31 | 0.8% | 872 | 912.8 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.30 | 0.8% | 957 | 942.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $0.29 | 0.8% | 990 | 975.2 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $0.28 | 0.8% | 1,091 | 1010.7 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $0.28 | 0.8% | 1,036 | 1010.7 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $0.25 | 0.8% | 1,144 | 1131.5 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $0.23 | 0.8% | 1,245 | 1230.2 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $0.22 | 0.8% | 1,467 | 1286.3 | 1.14× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 1,465 | 1414.2 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.18 | 0.8% | 1,412 | 1572.1 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.18 | 0.8% | 1,430 | 1572.1 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $0.16 | 0.8% | 1,802 | 1768.0 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.15 | 0.8% | 1,852 | 1886.4 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Caged Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $0.15 | 0.8% | 1,970 | 1886.4 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.14 | 0.8% | 2,389 | 2020.6 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $0.13 | 0.8% | 2,243 | 2176.2 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Caged Steel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.13 | 0.8% | 2,212 | 2176.2 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.12 | 0.8% | 2,360 | 2357.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.12 | 0.8% | 2,388 | 2357.0 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.12 | 0.8% | 2,315 | 2357.8 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.10 | 0.8% | 2,800 | 2829.2 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.10 | 0.8% | 2,825 | 2829.2 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.10 | 0.8% | 2,417 | 2829.2 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.10 | 0.8% | 2,439 | 2829.2 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.10 | 0.8% | 2,763 | 2829.2 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.08 | 0.8% | 3,501 | 3535.9 | 0.99× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/probably-dead`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-07 05:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [WolfmanVsV](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/WolfmanVsV) $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-05 02:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [TriangleObjet69](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/TriangleObjet69) $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-04 13:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [LadyFrost](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/LadyFrost) $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-04 11:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [Thalvala81rylyrrx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Thalvala81rylyrrx) $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-04 11:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [Lekitorias](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Lekitorias) $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-04 07:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [Old Head Maz](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Old%20Head%20Maz) $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-04 03:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [taranilor1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/taranilor1) $0.50 $39.57 79.14x 2026-11-03 09:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [Songoku.1](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Songoku.1) $0.50 $38.42 76.84x 2026-11-09 22:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) [♤ ℙ𝕝𝕒𝕪𝕓𝕠𝕪](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/%E2%99%A4%20%E2%84%99%F0%9D%95%9D%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%AA%F0%9D%95%93%F0%9D%95%A0%F0%9D%95%AA) $0.50 $38.42 76.84x 2026-11-09 20:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=probably-dead)

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-factory-new) [Micsibere](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Micsibere) $0.50 $1.23 2.46x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-field-tested) [PALA DAYI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PALA%20DAYI) $0.50 $0.15 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Whitefish (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-well-worn) [PALA DAYI](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PALA%20DAYI) $0.50 $0.33 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) [Elmik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Elmik) $0.50 $0.18 0.36x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Nova | Caged Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-factory-new) [Elmik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Elmik) $0.50 $0.15 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [LePire-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/LePire-_-) $0.50 $0.14 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) [Elmik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Elmik) $0.50 $0.08 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) [jonX](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/jonX) $0.50 $0.13 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) [Elmik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Elmik) $0.50 $0.12 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aerial-battle-scarred) [Elmik](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Elmik) $0.50 $0.38 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $0.50 | 87.94% | 78 |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $0.50 | 87.99% | 78 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $0.50 | 88.34% | 78 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.50 | 88.02% | 78 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $0.50 | 88.00% | 78 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $0.50 | 88.02% | 78 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $0.50 | 88.02% | 78 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $0.50 | 88.01% | 78 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $0.50 | 87.97% | 78 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.50 | 87.98% | 78 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $0.50 | 88.01% | 78 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.3% #d32ce6 0.1% milspec 41.7% #87c7ff 7.8% industrial 11.8% mil spec 9.5% consumer 5.8% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% #4b69ff 5.5% Rare 6.1% blue 5.5% Mil Spec 2.0% best hit $39.57 (79.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.94 on average: an expected loss of $12.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt