---
title: "Quarter Billion case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Quarter Billion ($14.49) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.98% from 163 items with odds, observed 78.51% over 508 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Quarter Billion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Quarter Billion

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion?window=all)

Price · $14.49

Advertised RTP · 85.98% · EV $12.46 from 163 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.51% · 508 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 41 openings · below min

7 days · 80.25% ±21.52 312 openings

30 days · 78.51% ±18.10 508 openings

since tracking started · 78.51% ±18.10 508 openings

-0.5% 54.8% 110.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion?window=24h) | 41 | 51.74% ±57.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion?window=7d) | 312 | 80.25% ±21.5 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion) | 508 | 78.51% ±18.1 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/quarter-billion?window=all) | 508 | 78.51% ±18.1 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 163 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,852 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,648 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $712 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $691 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $417 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $378 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $368 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $350 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $288 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $284 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $273 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $268 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $268 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $263 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $258 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $253 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $249 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $244 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $243 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $241 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $219 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $219 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $211 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $208 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $207 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $205 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $201 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,778 | $200 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $195 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $192 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 2,703 | $191 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,564 | $183 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $174 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,439 | $173 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $169 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $167 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $166 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $159 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $155 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $155 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $152 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $151 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $150 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $141 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $140 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,961 | $140 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,961 | $138 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,852 | $129 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,786 | $126 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,754 | $124 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $119 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $117 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 1,562 | $112 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,562 | $111 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,562 | $110 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 1,449 | $103 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $100 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 1,316 | $92.79 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $90.18 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,235 | $87.06 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 1,220 | $86.31 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 1,149 | $80.76 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,149 | $80.60 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $80.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,124 | $79.92 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 1,124 | $79.20 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,124 | $79.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,087 | $77.04 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 1,087 | $76.66 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,087 | $76.48 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $75.61 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $71.65 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 1,010 | $71.35 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,010 | $71.08 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $69.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 971 | $69.12 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 962 | $68.27 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 943 | $66.64 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 943 | $66.64 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 917 | $64.92 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $64.46 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 893 | $63.11 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 885 | $62.61 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 870 | $61.25 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 840 | $59.54 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $59.06 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 781 | $54.88 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 752 | $53.41 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 746 | $52.70 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 741 | $52.26 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 730 | $51.46 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 709 | $50.29 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 709 | $50.28 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 658 | $46.61 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 649 | $45.89 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 641 | $45.53 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $44.22 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 610 | $42.93 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 568 | $40.26 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 549 | $38.73 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 532 | $37.65 | 0.6% | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 529 | $37.52 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 529 | $37.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 524 | $37.11 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 524 | $36.98 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 513 | $36.21 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 505 | $35.69 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.98× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 503 | $35.59 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 495 | $34.98 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $34.57 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $33.81 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 469 | $33.22 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 469 | $33.17 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 459 | $32.41 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 1 in 457 | $32.23 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 452 | $32.04 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 446 | $31.52 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 439 | $31.06 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 420 | $29.69 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 417 | $29.49 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 413 | $29.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 412 | $29.04 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 403 | $28.55 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 398 | $28.16 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.35× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 392 | $27.73 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 389 | $27.55 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.29× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 389 | $27.50 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 379 | $26.81 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 365 | $25.86 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 365 | $25.74 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 364 | $25.74 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 355 | $25.00 | 0.6% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 346 | $24.46 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 345 | $24.34 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 340 | $24.11 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 339 | $23.97 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $22.77 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 305 | $21.54 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 300 | $21.26 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 296 | $20.97 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 282 | $19.87 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 275 | $19.41 | 0.6% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 270 | $19.10 | 0.6% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.65× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 261 | $18.50 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 253 | $17.88 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 252 | $17.81 | 0.6% | 6 | 2.0 | 2.97× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-well-worn) | 1 in 249 | $17.55 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 239 | $16.84 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $16.81 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $16.04 | 0.6% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 223 | $15.74 | 0.6% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 220 | $15.57 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 197 | $13.91 | 0.6% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $11.41 | 1.3% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $9.03 | 1.3% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $8.45 | 1.3% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $8.23 | 1.3% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.28× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $4.24 | 1.3% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $3.98 | 1.3% | 25 | 21.0 | 1.19× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.11 | 1.3% | 33 | 39.7 | 0.83× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-well-worn) | 13.8% | $1.19 | 1.3% | 64 | 70.3 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 17.5% | $0.94 | 1.3% | 85 | 89.0 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 23.5% | $0.70 | 1.3% | 112 | 119.5 | 0.94× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/quarter-billion`, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=quarter-billion)

[SG 553 | Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.25 $4.14 0.24x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) Hidden $17.25 $8.45 0.49x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) [ZoZ1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ZoZ1k) $17.25 $2.09 0.12x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) [ZoZ1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ZoZ1k) $17.25 $0.68 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-well-worn) Hidden $17.25 $1.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 09:32 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) Hidden $17.25 $51.46 2.98x 2026-11-11 09:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [Butt\_Fcker\_5000](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Butt_Fcker_5000) $17.25 $8.18 0.47x 2026-11-11 07:37 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) [bongomurzynkongo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/bongomurzynkongo) $95.00 $4.14 0.04x 2026-11-11 05:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [cmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/cmy) $17.25 $8.45 0.49x 2026-11-11 04:55 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) [cmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/cmy) $17.25 $0.68 0.04x 2026-11-11 04:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $14.49 | 85.98% | 163 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $14.49 | 86.02% | 163 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.7% classified 15.4% restricted 26.6% covert knife 0.2% red 0.1% Ancient 0.3% Covert 0.3% Classified 0.7% violet 0.5% Legendary 0.2% #d32ee6 4.9% #eb4b4b 0.2% pink 6.5% #d32ce6 0.3% #8847ff 17.5% Mythical 23.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.98 on average: an expected loss of $14.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt