---
title: "Radiant Collection case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Radiant Collection ($2.50) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.00% from 139 items with odds, observed 78.35% over 851 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Radiant Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Radiant Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 88.00% · EV $2.20 from 139 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.35% · 851 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89 openings · below min

7 days · 78.86% ±9.05 712 openings

30 days · 78.35% ±8.28 851 openings

since tracking started · 78.35% ±8.28 851 openings

41.0% 67.3% 93.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (70.07% – 86.64%, 851 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection?window=24h) | 89 | 67.30% ±25.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection?window=7d) | 712 | 78.86% ±9.05 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection) | 851 | 78.35% ±8.28 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/radiant-collection?window=all) | 851 | 78.35% ±8.28 | −2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 139 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 851 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $72.86 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $14.94 | 9.0% | 7 | 11.3 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $10.36 | 9.0% | 15 | 16.2 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $8.83 | 9.0% | 17 | 19.0 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $7.11 | 9.0% | 20 | 23.6 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $6.79 | 9.0% | 19 | 24.8 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $6.23 | 9.0% | 31 | 27.0 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $6.15 | 9.0% | 21 | 27.3 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $3.49 | 9.0% | 42 | 48.2 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.32 | 9.0% | 53 | 50.6 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.66 | 9.0% | 52 | 63.2 | 0.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $2.35 | 9.0% | 73 | 71.5 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $1.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $1.71 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $1.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $1.47 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $1.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $1.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $1.24 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $1.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $1.09 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1.02 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $0.94 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $0.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $0.78 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $0.67 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $0.64 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $0.53 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 2,326 | $0.48 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,273 | $0.48 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-well-worn) | 1 in 2,222 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $0.45 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,128 | $0.45 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-well-worn) | 1 in 1,538 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,149 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,053 | $0.22 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-well-worn) | 1 in 1,010 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,010 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 1,010 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-well-worn) | 1 in 1,010 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 1,010 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 952 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 952 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-battle-scarred) | 1 in 862 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 862 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-well-worn) | 1 in 862 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-battle-scarred) | 1 in 820 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 719 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 1 in 383 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 385 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-minimal-wear) | 1 in 385 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-factory-new) | 1 in 383 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.25× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-factory-new) | 1 in 385 | $0.08 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 336 | $0.07 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-well-worn) | 1 in 287 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 288 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 287 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 9 | 4.4 | 2.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Well-Worn) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-well-worn) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.58× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.58× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.69× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 11 | 5.9 | 1.86× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 11 | 5.9 | 1.86× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.69× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.69× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 12 | 5.9 | 2.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.84× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.69× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 10 | 5.9 | 1.69× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 12 | 5.9 | 2.03× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 1 | 5.9 | 0.17× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.52× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 12 | 5.9 | 2.03× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.52× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-well-worn) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/radiant-collection`, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=radiant-collection)

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-factory-new) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-factory-new) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.50 $0.21 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) [PsychoMantis23](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PsychoMantis23) $2.50 $0.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) [ADi2137 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ADi2137%20skins.army) $2.50 $2.35 0.94x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-factory-new) [ADi2137 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/ADi2137%20skins.army) $2.50 $0.04 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-well-worn) [sekiki8302](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/sekiki8302) $2.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Wood Block Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-battle-scarred) [sekiki8302](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/sekiki8302) $2.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) [SwifTOne](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/SwifTOne) $2.50 $7.11 2.84x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-well-worn) [lol](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/lol) $2.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $2.50 | 88.00% | 139 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 7.9% Mythical 23.6% violet 13.6% blue 1.0% uncommon 0.0% Rare 0.4% milspec 0.2% Mil Spec 0.0% #4b69ff 0.4% common 0.1% blueLight 1.6% #5e98d9 4.8% industrial 2.4% Uncommon 2.9% Common 5.9% consumer 26.5% Industrial 0.5% light blue 0.7% #b0c3d9 7.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.00 on average: an expected loss of $12.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt