---
title: "Reality Pending case on Hellcase: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Reality Pending ($2.00) on Hellcase, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.97% from 130 items with odds, observed 110.12% over 562 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) / [Reality Pending](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending)

# [Hellcase](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/hellcase) · Reality Pending

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 87.97% · EV $1.76 from 130 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 110.12% · 562 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 118.99% ±17.14 343 openings

30 days · 110.12% ±13.41 562 openings

since tracking started · 110.12% ±13.41 562 openings

87.5% 112.3% 137.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.71% – 123.53%, 562 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending?window=7d) | 343 | 118.99% ±17.1 | +3.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending) | 562 | 110.12% ±13.4 | +3.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/hellcase/reality-pending?window=all) | 562 | 110.12% ±13.4 | +3.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 130 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 568 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $159 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $41.14 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 1,064 | $24.19 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 935 | $21.40 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 877 | $20.01 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 752 | $17.10 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 671 | $15.27 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 641 | $14.58 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 629 | $14.24 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 599 | $13.61 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $12.64 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 526 | $11.94 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 485 | $11.03 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $9.07 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 398 | $9.05 | 1.3% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.81× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 380 | $8.63 | 1.3% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.68× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 365 | $8.29 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 331 | $7.52 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 329 | $7.48 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 288 | $6.56 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 287 | $6.51 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.51× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 279 | $6.36 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 276 | $6.28 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 264 | $6.00 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-factory-new) | 1 in 226 | $5.13 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 206 | $4.68 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $4.55 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 193 | $4.38 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $4.33 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $4.22 | 1.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $4.20 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $4.14 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $3.92 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $3.82 | 1.3% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $3.66 | 1.3% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159 | $3.62 | 1.3% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.68× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $3.59 | 1.3% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $3.30 | 1.3% | 9 | 3.9 | 2.30× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $3.23 | 1.3% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $3.21 | 1.3% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $3.11 | 1.3% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.69× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $3.07 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $3.01 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $2.83 | 1.3% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $2.55 | 1.3% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $2.50 | 1.3% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.36× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 109 | $2.48 | 1.3% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 109 | $2.48 | 1.3% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.73× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 107 | $2.44 | 1.3% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.51× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $2.36 | 1.3% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $2.31 | 1.3% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2.28 | 1.3% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $2.05 | 1.3% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $2.04 | 1.3% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $2.02 | 1.3% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $2.02 | 1.3% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $1.95 | 1.3% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $1.89 | 1.3% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $1.86 | 1.3% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.43× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $1.85 | 1.3% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $1.83 | 1.3% | 1 | 7.1 | 0.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $1.80 | 1.3% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $1.79 | 1.3% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 344 | $1.68 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 331 | $1.62 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.33× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 331 | $1.62 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 329 | $1.61 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 327 | $1.60 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $1.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 317 | $1.55 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-well-worn) | 1 in 304 | $1.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-well-worn) | 1 in 299 | $1.46 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 290 | $1.42 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-field-tested) | 1 in 288 | $1.41 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 284 | $1.39 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 278 | $1.36 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 278 | $1.36 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) | 1 in 268 | $1.31 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.89× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 262 | $1.28 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-well-worn) | 1 in 253 | $1.24 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 245 | $1.20 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 246 | $1.20 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 245 | $1.20 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 239 | $1.17 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 239 | $1.17 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 237 | $1.16 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 233 | $1.14 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 229 | $1.12 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $1.10 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 225 | $1.10 | 0.3% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.58× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 223 | $1.09 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 219 | $1.07 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 216 | $1.06 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $1.01 | 0.3% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.18× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 204 | $1.00 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.76× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 198 | $0.97 | 0.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 188 | $0.92 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.66× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $0.89 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 174 | $0.85 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.53× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 172 | $0.84 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $0.79 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 151 | $0.74 | 0.3% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.60× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 151 | $0.74 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 151 | $0.74 | 0.3% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.60× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $0.73 | 0.3% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.57× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $0.73 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $0.72 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $0.71 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $0.71 | 0.3% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $0.68 | 0.3% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $0.62 | 0.3% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $0.50 | 0.3% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $0.48 | 0.3% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $0.47 | 0.3% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $0.43 | 0.3% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $0.37 | 0.3% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $0.36 | 0.3% | 4 | 7.7 | 0.52× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $0.34 | 0.3% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $0.33 | 0.3% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $0.32 | 0.3% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.22 | 0.3% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.15 | 0.3% | 27 | 18.5 | 1.46× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.13 | 0.3% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.13 | 0.3% | 22 | 21.4 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-meow-36-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $0.13 | 0.3% | 17 | 21.4 | 0.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.10 | 0.3% | 23 | 27.8 | 0.83× |

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `hellcase:api/open/reality-pending`, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) [KAFA KESEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/KAFA%20KESEN) $2.00 $159 79.68x 2026-11-05 19:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=hellcase&case=reality-pending)

[P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) [majlo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/majlo) $2.00 $0.73 0.37x 2026-11-06 13:54 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) [majlo](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/majlo) $2.00 $1.01 0.51x 2026-11-06 13:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) [aimpowerqpad\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/aimpowerqpad*-25118106) $2.00 $1.07 0.54x 2026-11-06 13:33 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-battle-scarred) [aimpowerqpad\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/aimpowerqpad*-25118106) $2.00 $2.50 1.25x 2026-11-06 13:33 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-cirrus-field-tested) [grgavidakovic31](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/grgavidakovic31) $2.00 $1.36 0.68x 2026-11-06 13:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-valence-battle-scarred) [grgavidakovic31](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/grgavidakovic31) $2.00 $0.43 0.22x 2026-11-06 13:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) [grgavidakovic31](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/grgavidakovic31) $2.00 $14.58 7.29x 2026-11-06 13:14 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) [kiinm091](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/kiinm091) $2.00 $3.11 1.56x 2026-11-06 13:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) [Stryx](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/Stryx) $2.00 $1.80 0.90x 2026-11-06 12:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) [PeterPan](https://gambatracker.com/players/hellcase/PeterPan) $2.00 $1.89 0.95x 2026-11-06 12:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $2.00 | 87.97% | 130 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $2.00 | 88.04% | 130 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $2.00 | 87.97% | 130 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.00 | 88.02% | 130 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $2.00 | 87.98% | 130 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 0.4% rare 0.1% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 16.5% restricted 19.7% Mythical 5.5% uncommon 0.2% milspec 28.2% blue 6.8% Classified 0.2% Rare 2.3% #8847ff 3.0% violet 2.7% Restricted 1.3% Mil Spec 1.2% #4b69ff 6.9% Mil Spec Grade 4.9% best hit $159 (79.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.97 on average: an expected loss of $12.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt